EPL Best Bets and Predictions February 21-23
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Tottenham vs. Arsenal
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
The Premier League returns after a break for FA Cup action last weekend. I return with three best bets from what looks like a good set of fixtures from a betting perspective. There was one Premier League fixture in midweek, and it was one that could have massive repercussions in the title race.
Arsenal was cruising 2-0 up at bottom-side Wolves on Wednesday, only to collapse, conceding two late goals and dropping two crucial points. The title is still in their own hands, however, and they remain favorites.
Nervy times for all of a Gunners persuasion. Now, they have the small matter of the North London derby against their fiercest rivals. Rewind 10 days and this looked a guarantee for Arsenal to justify their -180 price, but after two unimpressive performances and the hosts with a new manager, it doesn’t seem so clear cut.
My worry for the league leaders is that the defense on which their campaign has been built is creaking. The positive for them is the number of injuries Spurs have to contend with, including most of their first-choice back line. That makes both sides gettable, and as such, it means playing goals is a must.
Mikel Arteta knows his cushion at the top has gone, draws are no longer an option with Manchester City breathing down their neck, which will leave them more exposed at the back. Igor Tudor will want to get off to a flying start and will look to exploit any weakness in the visitors, using the energy from the home crowd to come out hot.
There is a history of goals in this fixture, with 10 of the last 13 meetings producing Over 2.5 goals. Nine of those 13 have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
Five of Tottenham’s last six league games and seven of Arsenal’s last nine have seen this bet cash. I’m surprised to see this line set so low, but I am happy to take advantage, so Over 2.5 goals at -115 is a confident selection
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham vs. Arsenal – Over 2.5 goals at -115.
Everton vs. Manchester United
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
There is cautious optimism around Manchester United since Michael Carrick has taken over as interim head coach, and I have seen enough to bet them at minus money on the road. This looks like a great fixture for them, with Everton falling into the category of mid-table side with nothing to play for.
The Red Devils go into the weekend fourth in the table, which will guarantee them a much-prized place in next season’s Champions League. With no other competitions left to distract them, they must take advantage of that and fixtures like this to consolidate that position.
David Moyes has seen his side struggle in their new home with no wins in six at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. Not winning there since December 6th and only managing to take all three points in four of their 13 league games with home advantage.
The Toffees are conceding too many goals with no clean sheet in any of their last six home fixtures, and the visitors have the firepower to exploit that weakness. After four straight wins, United could only manage a tie at West Ham but showed enough quality going forward to have scored at least another two or three goals.
Carrick has an embarrassment of riches in attack, with most of those players in great form, contributing whether they start or come off the bench, as highlighted by that great strike from Sesko against the Hammers. United are a side on the up, and with goals throughout the side, I think the -109 for them to continue that momentum is a little bit of value.
EPL Best Bet: Everton vs Manchester United – Manchester United to win at -109.
West Ham vs. Bournemouth
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
We have arrived at that stage of the season where the betting syndicates and even the public want to get with teams that have a “need” to win or fade those that don’t. West Ham are in the relegation zone, so they certainly come into the first category, while Bournemouth are in ninth and likely fit the latter.
That likely explains why we see the Hammers priced at +135 favorites against a side who are unbeaten in seven. In Andoni Iraola, Bournemouth have a manager with incredibly high standards, and he is destined for bigger things, given the fantastic job he has done on the South Coast.
Saying that, I have been really impressed with West Ham since their work in the January transfer window. They look totally rejuvenated under Nuno and have a realistic chance now of survival, especially if Crysencio Summerville continues his exceptional form.
The former Leeds man has six goals in his last seven games, with his previous six spanning a 56-fixture period across two clubs. That has taken the pressure off talisman Jarrod Bowen and has made the Hammers a real threat going forward.
One thing that has been a consistent theme when these two sides take to the field is goals. Five of the last six West Ham league games have seen both teams score. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 14 appearances at home this season.
Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 11 of their last 12 games across all competitions and have scored in 15 of their 16 road trips this season, including all of the last eight. The Cherries’ away fixtures have been wild, with 66 goals scored in total at an average of 4.13 and only two seeing fewer than three goals, but an incredible 11 having four or more.
There simply must be goals in this match. Both teams to score is priced at -220, one of the lowest prices in that market for the weekend. However, Over 3.0 Asian Total is -110 and screams value.
We only lose if there are two or fewer goals; we get a full stake refund if there are exactly three, but cash at a superb price with four or more.
EPL Best Bet: West Ham vs. Bournemouth – Over 3.0 Asian Total at -110.
