EPL Best Bets and Predictions February 22-23:
Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Bournemouth vs. Wolves
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
There are a lot of spots I like in this week’s Premier League slate, but my advice to you would also to be careful. There are a few traps in there too. However, my best bet comes in Bournemouth vs. Wolves, where I am not looking to pick a winner. I’m simply playing goals, and unusually for me, I am not playing the Under.
Wolves are an improving side under Vitor Pereira. If they were playing pretty much any other side this weekend, they would be on your radar to bet them to win. But the one thing this side are very good for under their new manager is goals.
Matheus Cunha is their talisman and main goal threat, but there is creativity all around him. They are a team that are very attractive to the eye and create plenty of chances regardless of who they play. We saw that only last weekend against Liverpool, especially in the second half, where the league leaders were hanging on for the win.
Looking at Wolves’ last 11 road games in the league, every single one of them has cashed on Over 2.5 goals at an average of 4.09 goals per game. It’s therefore no surprise to see that bet priced up at -180 for this match. However, the market I like here is the Over 3.0 Asian Total at -107.
That means if there are exactly three goals, we get a push and effectively a free swing at four or more. Seven of those 11 matches I then referred to would have cashed this bet in full, with the other four losing nothing. Although Wolves score plenty, they concede even more, and Bournemouth are a side that can take full advantage.
What Andoni Iraola is doing down there is absolutely incredible. I have struggled to read them in the past and possibly not given them the credit they deserved. Make no mistake, they are in with a chance of finishing in the top four.
The Cherries have only lost once in their last 15 matches, and that was a narrow defeat to Liverpool. It is amazing they are going off -150 favorites now and justifying it.
With Justin Kluivert, Antoine Semenyo and Dango Ouattara, they have a lethal front three, but they contribute goals from all over the pitch. They are also another team that, because of their attacking style, gives up chances, which is what makes this bet even more appealing.
This is the first of two meetings between these two sides in the space of seven days as they also clash in the FA Cup next weekend. When that happens, the first meeting is either very cagey or they go all out to lay a marker down. I favor the latter as this game is so important to both teams.
The reverse fixture ended in a 4-2 win for Bournemouth, and I am predicting more of the same at the Vitality Stadium this Saturday.
EPL Pick: Over 3 Asian Total at -107.
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
It is clear to see the market has had a rebase on some sides, Everton and Manchester United are two prime examples, but the prices for this one had me scratching my head. Aston Villa are priced up as the underdog, with Chelsea marginal favorites. I fully expect those prices to flip come kickoff.
After an incredible start to the season, Enzo Maresca is now the second favorite to be the next manager to lose his job. Not only has their league form slipped, they are in danger of dropping out of the European places and they are out of both domestic cups.
Star player and talisman Cole Palmer is in a bad run of form, playing nowhere near as well as what we were seeing week in and week out at the start of the campaign. That all came to a head in an awful showing at Brighton last Friday, where they were lucky to only lose 3-0.
The Blues haven’t won away from home this year and are winless in their last six road trips in total, losing the last three. They will be hoping their tremendous record at Villa Park, which has seen them win six of the last eight meetings, will see them turn that around this weekend, but I am not so sure.
This current version of Aston Villa is the best in recent history. Ollie Watkins is back scoring goals, Marcus Rashford has come in and added more threat to their attack, they have an exciting, energetic midfield and a world-class goalkeeper. Chelsea looks disjointed, all over the place, and there for the taking.
Don’t get me wrong, the visitors are more than capable of beating anyone on their day, but this is a massive value selection where in my opinion, the odds are totally wrong. Cheslea is priced up on historical supremacy and possibly also because of the effort Villa put into their midweek 2-2 tie with Liverpool.
However, at home, they are a match for anyone and have lost only one of their last 19 league games at Villa Park. It was little more than a year ago they put together a run of 15 successive Premier League home wins.
I wouldn’t put anyone off betting Aston Villa at +165, but I do want the safety net of a push if the game ends in a tie. Therefore, Tie no bet is my official play at -108 which is a superb price.
EPL Pick: Aston Villa tie no bet at -108.
Manchester City vs. Liverpool
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
It’s the big game of the weekend, maybe not quite so critical to both clubs as it has been in recent years, but massive nonetheless. My play here is on the Over 4.0 Asian Total at +200.
There is no way City do not go all out to win this game and put a big dent in their archrivals over the last few season’s title ambitions. After a tame elimination from the Champions League in midweek, this is Pep Guardiola’s last big match of the campaign. Even if they make it to the FA Cup final, I will argue this feels bigger.
He must ensure he claims a top-four finish in the league, and he also knows his team are likely to give up two goals every time they face elite opposition. His attitude must be let’s have a real go at it and fight fire with fire. As a result, I have a feeling this score could be anything.
There have been 59 goals scored in Manchester City’s last 12 games across all competitions at an average of 4.92 goals per game. That makes Liverpool’s very healthy average of 3.30 across their last 10 games look nothing!
After the midweek tie with Aston Villa, the Reds’ last two road games have ended 2-2. Both teams have scored in six of their last eight league games. Arne Slot’s attitude is not to try and grind out the points, never settle for a draw, but to always go for the win. That is their strength, a fearsome offense.
This should be a great watch with two incredible attacks just going at each other. I also think Pep’s selection in midweek was with this fixture in mind. He knew Real Madrid had his measure, if he didn’t think that even a 70% fit Haaland would have started. Expect the Norwegian to feature here.
I just see goals galore in this one so that is why I am taking on the high line. Four goals gets a push but a free swing at five or more at a very big price. In the last 14 meetings, there have been at least four goals in nine.
EPL Pick: Over 4.0 Asian Total at +200.
