EPL Best Bets and Predictions February 27-March 1
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
As we approach the business end of the Premier League season, this could be a pivotal week as a midweek round of fixtures follows this weekend’s action. That is then ahead of a break for the FA Cup.
We have a title race, relegation scrap, and a multi-team battle for Champions League qualification places. One of those sides and current occupiers of the last guaranteed spot is Manchester United, who, as predicted in this column last week, got the job done with a 1-0 win at Everton on Monday.
There is a belief in this side under Michael Carrick that wasn’t there under Ruben Amorim. Two or three months ago, they would have lost that game. They stayed in it, ground out the three points, and in Benjamin Šeško, they have a striker making a real impact off the bench.
Don’t get me wrong, there has been more than one false dawn under various managers at Old Trafford, but I really like what I see from Carrick. He has made the Red Devils great to watch with goal scorers and match winners scattered through the side.
Crystal Palace had a big win last weekend against rock-bottom Wolves, but they were lucky to do so. New captain Dean Henderson saved a penalty at 0-0, with other big chances missed before his side struck with a late winner.
The Eagles are struggling for goals in the absence of Jean-Philippe Mateta and will miss his battering ram style in attack. As a result, the low-scoring recent history in this fixture looks set to continue, with only one of the last six meetings seeing both teams score.
In contrast, Manchester United have scored in each of their last 16 fixtures across all competitions. With Crystal Palace also having had to play a European fixture on Thursday, the hosts will also have a physical and fitness advantage.
That all adds up to another United win under Carrick, and I think it could be a convincing one. They won the reverse fixture 2-1, but that was against a Palace side that were flying at the time. They certainly are not now.
Manchester United are clearly too short at -175 to win, but we get odds of -103 on the -1 Asian Handicap. Meaning we need a win by two or more goals to cash the ticket, but we have the safety net of a full refund should they only win by exactly one goal.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace – Manchester United -1 Asian Handicap at -103.
Bournemouth vs. Sunderland
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
I will be looking to oppose Sunderland regularly between now and the end of the season. This represents the first opportunity to do just that. Their captain, Granit Xhaka, may be back, but as influential as he may be to the team, I think their work is done.
The Black Cats were the last side to lose a home game in the Premier League this season, and now that proud record is done, they look like a side reverting back to what we expect before the first kick-off. They have a relatively small squad that has massively overachieved and done fantastically well, but they are prime for fading across the remaining fixtures.
They have achieved those results and avoided relegation by working incredibly hard, especially at home, but have consistently struggled on the road. Those exertions are now showing signs of taking its toll.
Bournemouth had a little blip, but over the last few weeks are one of the most underrated teams in the Premier League and are unbeaten in seven games. What Andoni Iraola has done this season is nothing short of incredible, coping with the sale of his entire defense in the summer and their star attacker in January.
The visitors have only scored six league goals from 13 road trips. They have lost four of their last six away games with no wins in nine on their travels.
I wouldn’t put anyone off taking Bournemouth on the moneyline at -132, but I am being more aggressive and taking the -0.75 Asian Handicap as I expected that line to be set at 1.0. We make profit with any Bournemouth win but a full return for a victory by two or more goals.
The Cherries have goals in them, winning three of their last four at home by the same 3-2 scoreline. However, I don’t see a way Sunderland can match that goalscoring as highlighted in that their last three road games saw them lose 3-0, 3-1 and 3-0.
EPL Best Bet: Bournemouth vs Sunderland– Bournemouth -0.75 Asian Handicap at -104.
Brighton vs. Nottingham Forest
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
This game is screaming a lack of goals, and I am shocked to see Under 2.5 available at plus money. We see a clash here between two sides that struggle to score.
Brighton picked up a massive win last weekend when beating Brentford and eased a little of the pressure off Fabian Hürzeler. But that game ended 2-0, showing that even with issues in forward areas, they are keeping things tight defensively.
That was the seventh occasion where this bet has cashed in their last eight league games and in all their last six on home soil. Forest visit having dominated Liverpool last weekend, yet walked away with nothing after conceding a late goal in a 1-0 defeat.
Vitor Pereira has inherited a side badly missing the injured Chris Wood. Without a consistent goalscorer but again with a solid backline Under 2.5 goals has cashed in five of their last six league games.
We might be getting a good line and price here, given four of the last six meetings in the league have cashed for Over 3.5 goals bettors. These sides are different this season. especially Brighton, who used to be the expected goals darlings but in their recent three outings have only mustered a combined total of 2.88, the lowest in the Premier League.
EPL Best Bet: Brighton vs. Nottingham Forest – Under 2.5 goals at +100.
