EPL Best Bets and Predictions January 17-19
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Sunderland vs. Crystal Palace
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
After a frantic festive season of Premier League action, there was a break last weekend as the FA Cup took center stage. However, regular readers who continued with a strategy I first mentioned weeks ago and have regularly employed since would have cashed a massive ticket.
I have been fading Crystal Palace consistently. Last weekend, they created unwanted FA Cup history when a side 117 places below them in the English soccer pyramid beat them at odds of +1200. Macclesfield were only formed five years ago and became the first non-League team to beat the FA Cup holders in 117 years.
So, although playing Unders was a big temptation, it will come as no surprise to you I want to get with Sunderland in some way. They look a big price at +165 to win the match, but with 0-0 a definite runner here, I want to keep the tie on side.
Sunderland have been incredible this season. Their work rate is exceptional, and although you do wonder how long they can keep that level up, at home, their superb support just lifts them to new heights. The Black Cats are unbeaten on home soil with five wins and five ties coming from their 10 league games at the Stadium of Light.
Régis Le Bris has players coming back from the African Cup of Nations, which will be a boost to freshen up his squad. This looks like the perfect time to play Palace. No side in the Premier League has more players out injured while their captain is being linked with Liverpool, Manchester City and Bayern Munich.
The best way to play this is the tie no bet at odds of -125, which gives us the safety net of a full stake refund should the game end all square. There is no reason why Palace should be +180 to go to one of the toughest venues in the Premier League and win, which is something the likes of Arsenal, Man City, Aston Villa and Newcastle have all failed to do.
Oliver Glasner has said his players need help. They are fatigued, and when they go to places where the home support acts as a 12th man and charges the home team’s energy levels, they fall short. This matchup and the expected atmosphere remind me of the recent trip to Leeds which saw the Eagles collapse to a 4-1 thrashing.
EPL Best Bet: Sunderland vs Crystal Palace – Sunderland tie no bet at -125.
Leeds United vs. Fulham
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I like the look of goals in a lot of this weekend’s fixtures, but this clash screams them. Over 2.5 goals looks value at plus money, and I wouldn’t put anyone off playing that, but my angle in is for both teams to score.
Fulham just score goals wherever they are playing. In 26 matches across all competitions this season, they have scored in 23 of them.
In Leeds’ last 12 matches, 11 have seen both teams score, including the last eight when playing at home. A league high 80% of games at Elland Road this term have seen this bet cash.
Both teams come into this fixture high in confidence. Leeds travelled to Derby in the FA Cup and won 3-1, meaning they have only lost one of the last eight games, while Fulham came from behind to beat Championship promotion chasers Middlesbrough 3-1 to extend their unbeaten run to six.
I have settled on both teams to score instead of the bigger price Over 2.5 goals as I think the tie is a distinct possibility. Leeds have tied five of those eight games I just mentioned, with Fulham sharing the spoils in two of their last four, and I think a tie is not the worst result for either team here.
Looking at the likely lineups, there are players across both sides that can light this game up. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in seven of his last nine appearances for Leeds, two of those coming as a substitute. With Harry Wilson having a goal involvement in seven of his last nine games for Fulham, scoring five goals and assisting four.
Both teams are in great form, with players at the top of their game, scoring and conceding for fun. As a result, both teams to score looks like a great value play.
EPL Best Bet: Leeds United vs Fulham – Both teams to score at -122.
Brighton vs. Bournemouth
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Towards the end of 2025, Brighton were proving to be a little inconsistent, but I feel they are currently playing their best soccer of the season. They have key players back from injury, and the return of club legend Pascal Gross from Borussia Dortmund after 18 months away has coincided with that upturn in form.
The Seagulls are unbeaten in four games, three points off the top six and only six adrift of fourth-placed Liverpool. They will have their eyes firmly on claiming one of those European qualification spots this term.
This looks like a great time to play Bournemouth, who ended an 11-game winless run with a 4-3 victory over Tottenham in their last league game, but were knocked out of the FA Cup by Newcastle last weekend. The main issue for the Cherries is they have lost the player who scored the winning goal against Spurs.
Antoine Semenyo has left for Manchester City, and he was such a big player for them. They must feel his absence. Scorer of 10 goals this season as well as three assists, but his all-round play is exceptional, and he really was their talisman; he leaves a massive void in the squad and one that currently remains unfilled.
The market doesn’t appear to have reacted to that transfer. To me, that makes the home side value. Even with Semenyo, Bournemouth were winless in their last eight road trips in the league, losing four of the last six and losing their last four visits to the Amex. Without him, this looks like a big value play.
EPL Best Bets: Brighton vs Bournemouth – Brighton to win at -115.
