EPL Best Bets and Predictions January 24-25
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Bournemouth vs. Liverpool
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Other than Manchester City’s shock 3-1 defeat at Bødo/Glimt, it was a good week for English clubs in the Champions League. There were victories for Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle and Tottenham while Liverpool travelled to Marseille and ran out impressive 3-0 winners.
It was the perfect response after the Reds dropped two points last weekend following a disappointing 1-1 tie with Burnley, a fourth successive Premier League stalemate. Despite that, it does feel like they are getting back to their best following a rebuild after winning the title last season.
Mo Salah is back in the squad following his international duty at AFCON, and Florian Wirtz is starting to show what made him such a huge star in German soccer. As a result, the -118 looks too big for a Liverpool win, and I must get involved.
Bournemouth played well against Brighton on Monday and should have won that match but were denied by a spectacular late equalizer. However, they have lost so many key players, with Antione Semenyo the most recent to depart, and coupled with a lengthy injury list, I can’t see them troubling the champions.
Arne Slot’s men come into this match unbeaten in 13 fixtures across all competitions, while Bournemouth have just one win from their last 14 matches. Most sides find visiting the Cherries a tricky assignment, but not Liverpool.
They have won 13 of the last 14 meetings between the two sides across all venues, and this fixture in six of their last seven visits. The aggregate score over those games is 19-2, with Liverpool scoring at least twice in all those victories.
The reverse fixture saw the Merseysiders run out 4-2 victors, but both Bournemouth goals that day came from the now departed Semenyo. The visitors are in form, have all but assured themselves a place in the Champions League knockout stages and will look to go into massive home games against Newcastle and Manchester City by taking all three points here.
EPL Best Bet: Bournemouth vs. Liverpool – Liverpool to win at -118.
Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
All I can say is strap yourselves in, here we go again! Another week, another fade of Crystal Palace, and this time I think the +104 for a Chelsea win is massive.
The Eagles have become something of a soap opera in recent weeks. Their winless run now stretches to 10 games, captain Marc Guéhi has been sold to Manchester City on the eve of a matchday, manager Oliver Glasner has said he is leaving at the end of the season, and now their top goalscorer Jean-Philippe Mateta is being strongly linked to a move away.
It is nothing short of a crisis and one that doesn’t look likely to end soon. I was at the reverse fixture which opened the new campaign back in August, and although the game ended 0-0, Chelsea battered Palace that day.
The side Glasner will field this weekend will be pretty much unrecognizable compared to match day one. As well as Guéhi, star man Eberechi Eze has been sold to Arsenal, key man Daniel Muñoz is injured, and Ismaïla Sarr is unlikely to feature here too.
The replacements for those players are simply inadequate, with the substitutes’ bench made up largely of teenagers. The manager has come out and said they have been abandoned, possibly in an attempt to get the sack. It hasn’t work and he is stuck with it.
If that wasn’t bad enough, Palace have always struggled in this fixture. The last time Chelsea lost to the Eagles was in 2017, since when they are unbeaten in 17 meetings, winning 14.
Talisman Cole Palmer could return here after missing the midweek Champions League victory, where the shaky Chelsea defense boosted confidence by keeping a clean sheet. My only slight concern is the Blues have a huge reunion with former manager Antonio Conte and his Napoli side in the Champions League next week.
However, I can’t overlook the plus money on Chelsea to win and have to bet it.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea – Chelsea to win at +104.
Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest
Sunday, 9:00 p.m. ET
I like Brentford here at -103. However, my bet is to back their top scorer to add to his tally at a bigger price. When the Bees play at home, Igor Thiago usually scores.
The Brazilian has scored nine of his 16 league goals from 11 home appearances for the Bees. Bagging two or more in four of those fixtures.
Without doubt, he is a very underrated striker, and if this was someone like Viktor Gyökeres at home to Forest, he would be priced between -175 and -200. That makes Thiago huge value at +108, considering only Erling Haaland has more league goals than him this season, and at this stage, only four more.
Brentford love playing at home and will relish this opportunity, having a clear week to prepare. Only Aston Villa, Manchester City and Arsenal have picked up more points on home soil, with the latter two the only sides that can top the Bees’ 23 goals scored.
Furthermore, Sean Dyche’s relegation strugglers had a tough trip to Braga in the Europa League on Thursday night and don’t have a good record in the league fixture immediately after being in European action. Thiago has five goals in his last three starts for his club, including two in his last game at home, a 3-0 win over Sunderland, and also scored in the reverse fixture on the opening weekend of the season.
EPL Best Bet: Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest – Igor Thiago to score at +108.
