EPL Best Bets and Predictions January 3-4
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
It will come as no surprise to you that my strongest play of the weekend comes in the game at St. James Park. Once again, I must oppose Crystal Palace for all the reasons I have outlined previously.
A few weeks ago, I said that the Eagles would run out of gas due to the combination of a high volume of games across a variety of competitions and a relatively small squad. We are now seeing that unfold in front of our eyes, with the added issue of injuries to key players and absence due to international duty.
They now make the long trip up to play a Newcastle side that recorded a big win on Tuesday at Burnley. With a terrible road record, there was potential for a slip-up, but they burst out of the traps and raced into a 2-0 lead inside seven minutes before eventually winning 3-1.
Newcastle should start heading up the table quickly now that they are picking up points away from home as well as at their fortress, where they are consistently strong. Eddie Howe has seen his team score in all 15 matches at home this season, scoring at least twice in the last 10 in which they are undefeated, winning eight.
Palace are without a win in six games across all competitions now and expect that run to be extended at a ground where they do not have happy memories. Last season, they were thrashed 5-0, even worse than their previous visit, which saw a 4-0 defeat, and they haven’t so much as scored at St. James’ since 2022, five successive blanks.
Newcastle are priced at -159, but betting them on the -0.75 Asian Handicap means we will make profit with any home win. A victory by two or more goals gets us a full return.
EPL Best Bet: Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace – Newcastle -0.75 Asian Handicap at -125.
Leeds United vs. Manchester United
Sunday, 7:30 a.m. ET
This fixture looks full of goals. I am shocked at the price of the Over 2.5 goals line here with the -121 on offer looking huge value.
Whenever you have Manchester United involved this season, especially on the road, goals tend to follow. When you get the price we are here, you just have to take it.
Add in Leeds’ recent home form, which has been phenomenal, and it makes this play even stronger. Daniel Farke has seen his side thrash Crystal Palace 4-1 and Chelsea 3-1, with a thrilling 3-3 tie with Liverpool in between.
The last seven league games at Elland Road have seen 28 goals, with this bet cashing in all of them. I mentioned the goals in Manchester United road games; nine of the last 10 have seen a minimum of three.
EPL Best Bet: Leeds United vs. Manchester United – Over 2.5 goals at -121.
Tottenham vs. Sunderland
Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Tottenham were booed off at halftime and full time after Thomas Frank’s return to his former club ended in a 0-0 stalemate. I feel a bit sorry for him as he is trying to make the best of a tough job, with his options limited due to his squad being decimated by injuries.
This is the level Spurs are at right now, with Richarlison pretty much their only available attacker. They are not playing well, they are not exciting, but they are picking up points.
The markets are not keen on Tottenham either, but nor are they keen on the visitors, Sunderland. The Black Cats have done remarkably well since losing six players to AFCON and a couple more through injury, but look at their expected goals (xG) data, and it is very low.
Regis Le Bris sets his side up to be very hard to break down, even more so since the loss of those players, and that is highlighted by the three stalemates since they departed on international duty. Two of those games ended 0-0, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see another here.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham vs. Sunderland – Under 2.5 goals at -117.
Everton vs. Brentford
Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET
One bet really stood out to me as being the wrong price this weekend and that is Everton to beat Brentford. I had them at around +110. I don’t think the market is giving them any credit at all.
The Toffees have a decent home record in their brand-new stadium this season. Yes, they have lost three times, but to Newcastle, a Spurs side with the best road record in the league, and to table-topping title favorites Arsenal.
David Moyes has seen his side take care of Brighton, Crystal Palace, Fulham and Nottingham Forest. Most of those teams are at a similar level to Brentford, but all have picked up more points than the Bees on the road.
Keith Andrews has leant heavily on home advantage to get his men in the top half of the table. But only the bottom two, Burnley and Wolves, have won fewer points this term as the visiting team.
I have seen Brentford as a road team three times this season in the flesh, and on each occasion, they offered absolutely nothing. They have lost seven of their nine away games, with their two wins coming at West Ham and Wolves, who are both in the bottom three.
Jack Grealish made a return off the bench in the midweek win at Nottingham Forest, James Garner was excellent, while Thierno Barry scored again and will now hope to kick on. Expect Everton to be closer to +120 come kick off, so anything better than that is value, but the current +135 is huge.
EPL Best Bet: Everton vs. Brentford – Everton to win at +135.
