EPL Best Bets and Predictions January 31-February 1
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Aston Villa vs. Brentford
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
This week, we saw the final round of fixtures in the league phase of the Champions League, and it signaled an end to a successful qualifying campaign for Premier League clubs. Five (Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester City) finished in the top eight and will head straight for the knockout round, while the other (Newcastle) will have to navigate a playoff round to make the final 16.
My best bet of the weekend involves a side that will be hoping to compete in next season’s Champions League, as will be the case if they can hold on to or improve their current third place in the table. Aston Villa look a little undervalued at -106 to beat Brentford, and I am happy to take the value.
I think this is a crucial time of the season for Unai Emery’s men. Four of their next five fixtures are at home, and all look winnable as they look to keep pace with league leaders Arsenal, progress in the FA Cup and continue deep in the Europa League.
Injuries to both John McGinn and Youri Tielemans are big blows, but the club has reacted well by making some smart additions. Leon Bailey has been recalled from his loan with Roma, Tammy Abraham has been brought back to the club from Besiktas, while another former player, Douglas Luiz, has returned on loan from Juventus.
Despite a negative in the market last weekend, Villa made the difficult trip to Newcastle and returned with all three points. A fantastic response to the 1-0 home defeat to Everton, which ended a run of 11 straight wins at Villa Park.
I just wonder if Brentford feel they may have done enough, content in the knowledge they are safe but unlikely to challenge any higher than their current position of eighth. They haven’t been at it in their last two performances, particularly last weekend with a terrible 2-0 defeat at home to Nottingham Forest, where they only managed one shot on target.
Villa has the third-best home record in the Premier League, while Brentford have collected the fifth-lowest points tally on the road. The hosts have enough strength in depth to take care of business here at what looks like a great price.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs Brentford – Aston Villa to win at -106.
Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Regular readers will know that for the last couple of months, I have been fading Crystal Palace. There is simply no evidence to suggest that strategy shouldn’t continue to be profitable.
The only slight concern is that Forest had a midweek fixture in the Europa League while Palace had their feet up, but that is not enough to put me off. Oliver Glasner’s side continues to plummet down the table as their season unravels, and are now priced at only +800 to be relegated.
The Eagles are winless in 11 fixtures, conceding 21 goals in the process and have lost their last three. It is not just the number of goals that is alarming, but the nature of them, with so many coming from set-pieces.
Last week, captain Marc Guéhi was sold to Manchester City for $27.5 million. Glasner has confirmed he will be leaving at the end of the current campaign, and I would let him go now and bring in an interim manager. Nottingham Forest had a bid of over $40 million for Jean-Philippe Mateta rejected this week, while star man Adam Wharton is suspended for this clash.
Although Forest haven’t been doing anything too positive in recent weeks, a 0-0 tie with Arsenal in their last home league outing showed their resilience, and the 2-0 win at Brentford was arguably their best win of the season to date. It’s the negativity around Palace that really makes me want to oppose them, especially around plus money.
So, for now at least, I am going to keep riding that Palace fade train.
EPL Best Bet: Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest to win at -106.
Wolves vs. Bournemouth
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I was tempted to take Wolves on the Moneyline here at what looks like a huge +215, any of you that want an aggressive play, I wouldn’t put you off from doing so. For me, I am taking the safety net of a +0.25-handicap meaning if the hosts avoid defeat, we are guaranteed profit.
In recent weeks, the Old Gold have improved, and I like what I have been seeing. Last weekend, they did ok against Manchester City, slipping to a defeat but keeping the scoreline respectable, although it ended an unbeaten run of five games in all competitions
At home, Rob Edwards has seen his side thrash West Ham 3-0, secure a big win in the FA Cup versus Shrewsbury, before picking up a hard-fought point against Newcastle. Now they face a Bournemouth side that I think will see the loss of Antoine Semenyo eventually take its toll.
Add in some crucial injuries and the fact they play such an open style away from home, Wolves can take advantage. The Cherries have only won once on the road this season, a 1-0 victory at Tottenham way back in August, which means this bet would have cashed for profit in each of the subsequent 10 fixtures.
Edwards has instilled some genuine belief into the squad and has a host of young players who are taking to the pitch with no fear. Even though it would take a miracle for them to survive, the fans are back onside as they are finally seeing some fight.
From what I have seen over the last few weeks, this should be much closer to a pick ’em contest, and there is no way I could justify the visitors being priced at +117. But I do want the tie onside.
EPL Best Bet: Wolves vs Bournemouth – Wolves +0.25 Asian Handicap at -109.
