EPL Best Bets and Predictions January 4-5:
Happy New Year, everyone! Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Brighton vs. Arsenal
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
For my first best bet of 2025, I’m going to the South Coast of England and fading the hosts. I think Arsenal win this. Following their defeat of Brentford on Wednesday, money has already started to come for them.
Mikel Arteta has injury and illness concerns, with the biggest blow being the absence of Bukayo Saka who will be missing for several weeks. To counteract that, Gabriel Jesus has exploded into form, scoring six goals in his last four appearances. Kai Havertz missed the New Year’s Day victory and Declan Rice was only fit enough for a place on the bench. Both should come back into contention for this clash.
In the reverse fixture, Arsenal were in complete control of the match until Rice was contentiously sent off for kicking the ball away. From 1-0 up and cruising, the game was turned on its head. Brighton snatched an unlikely draw, having been lucky not to go in at halftime two or three down.
It has been a theme for the Gunners, where most of their dropped points have been because of poor discipline. Occasionally, they come up against a side that sit deep and hold on for a draw. As was the case when they played Everton recently, the hosts won’t play that way.
Arsenal is in very good form. They are unbeaten in 12 games across all competitions, winning nine. They are also helped by the fact they are playing catch-up in the league, and I trust them to string a winning sequence together when they are the hunters, not the hunted.
As for Brighton, I have been saying for weeks I am not convinced by them. They are now winless in seven league games and their last three results on home soil have been poor. Dropping points to the two worst road teams in Southampton and Brentford as well as being beaten by Crystal Palace.
From challenging for a top four spot, they are now on a bit of a decline and come into the new year in 10th. They may look pretty to the eye and put up nice xG numbers to please the data gurus, but they don’t cut it for me on the pitch, and this current side, in the form they are in makes Arsenal a great price at anything better than -134.
EPL Pick: Arsenal to win at -130.
Bournemouth vs. Everton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Disclaimer: I can’t call Bournemouth right this season. They let me down whenever I back them and then win when I oppose them! But who doesn’t love a trier and here I am supporting them once more.
The Cherries have only lost twice at home this season. On both occasions, they were up against top-half opposition in Brighton and Chelsea. They come into this clash unbeaten in seven league games, most recently coming from behind twice to claim a decent road point at Fulham.
As much as this is a pro-Bournemouth angle, I am also happy to fade 16th-placed Everton. Their style of play does take so much energy, having to do a lot of defending, to be so organized and always concentrating, and I saw signs in the 2-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest last week that they looked a little bit leggy.
This game brings together two completely contrasting styles of play. Sean Dyche will set his side up as he always does, happy to allow the hosts possession of the ball while remaining tight, compact and hard to break down.
Bournemouth will be tasked with finding a way through that defensive line but have the quality and edge in every single department to get the win, even if it takes them until the last kick. The reverse fixture was crazy, with Everton holding a 2-0 lead as late as the 87th minute only to lose 3-2 (the first three of 10 goals Andoni Iraola has seen his men score beyond the 85th minute – three more than any other side this term).
The home team have improved as the season has gone on, while the festive fixture congestion has taken its toll on the Toffees. You can only go into so many games grinding out 0-0’s or looking to snatch a point, which makes this the right time to get back on that Bournemouth train.
EPL Pick: Bournemouth to win at -133.
Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
My final EPL pick of the week is taking what looks like a very nice price on Chelsea to get back to winning ways on their road trip to Crystal Palace. It demonstrates the fickle nature of the game that three fixtures ago, every person, every tipster, was telling me the Blues were a great bet for the title.
The best squad in the league with the best player, then two defeats on the bounce, and its suddenly panic stations, turmoil at the Bridge, and Enzo Maresca is a couple of games from the sack! It shows you how quickly things can change, especially in the Premier League.
If this game took place a couple of weeks ago, Chelsea would be priced around -225. Have they really regressed so much in that period to be a -110 shot now? Absolutely not is the answer. They are a young side, going through a tough spell in a season which was always going to be one of transition, but in which they have shown just how good they can be.
They couldn’t hand-pick a better opponent than Palace, based on recent meetings. Chelsea have won 14 of the last 15 head-to-heads and all the last six clashes at Selhurst Park.
Yes, in Ipswich, Fulham and Everton, Chelsea have dropped points against sides they were expected to beat, but they have several players on the pitch who are world-class. When that is the case, you always have a chance, and they play an Eagles side that have struggled this season, only winning two of their 10 home league games and sit just five points above the relegation zone.
I am not buying that in a 10-day period, a side have gone from having a 69% probability of winning this to just a little more than 50%—a 19% swing based on two matches. We have seen a lot of soccer this season, and of the two teams, Chelsea is in a different league to Palace, and I am happy to take them to prove it at what looks like a standout price.
EPL Pick: Chelsea to win at -110.
