EPL Best Bets and Predictions January 6-8
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa
Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ET
There is a full round of midweek Premier League fixtures ahead of a pause for FA Cup action at the weekend. There are two standout teams I am betting on and a prop on a player that is in stunning form.
A few weeks back, I mentioned that I would fade Crystal Palace for the rest of 2025. That was a very profitable strategy. I was very pleased to be way ahead of any rebase, and I am happy to continue this strategy in early 2026.
The reasoning was based on fatigue with injuries and international call-ups only making that thinking even stronger. At the weekend, the Eagles travelled to Newcastle, lost 2-,0 and then lost three more players to injury.
Oliver Glasner is now without 11 of his first-choice roster and is having to pick academy teenagers to fill his bench. Add to this the fact the manager will be strongly linked to the newly vacant Manchester United job, meaning there is further uncertainty and disruption.
Now they play an Aston Villa side who are in sensational form, yet we are getting +132 on the visitors. That can only be down to the Villains’ poor record against Palace.
The Eagles won the reverse fixture 3-0 in August and were undefeated in four meetings last season, winning three of those games, including another 3-0 win in the FA Cup semi-final. But this is a very different Crystal Palace side from any of those clashes.
A reminder that Villa have won 12 of their last 13 fixtures, with their only loss in that sequence coming at the -300 title favorites Arsenal, who are six points clear at the top of the table. Since then, they have already bounced back and won comfortably against Nottingham Forest on Saturday.
Villa are a huge price, could be a lot shorter come kick off, but it’s too good to pass up and is a very strong value play for me.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa – Aston Villa to win at +132.
Newcastle United vs. Leeds United
Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ET
It was Newcastle who I faded Palace with on Sunday, and I am going in on them again here.
Let’s talk about the visitors initially, as I am sure they have caught the eye of a few, as they have put a seven-game unbeaten league run together. However, they tied five of those seven matches; the two wins came at home. Across the season, Leeds have only won once at rock-bottom Wolves.
The same applies to some degree for Newcastle, who have also struggled on the road but are exceptional on home soil. Unbeaten in their last 11 games at St. James’ Park across all competitions, winning nine and incredibly scoring at least twice in all those fixtures.
A win here could take Eddie Howe’s men up to fifth in the table, which highlights how tight the middle of the Premier League is this term. They look strong with many key players returning from injury, so expect them to put the wins together to take them up to where they should be, challenging for the top four.
Yoane Wissa is now match fit, providing competition and a different dynamic to Nick Woltemade as they combine forces to fill the goals void left by Alexander Isak. They have a variety of wide forwards who are all contributing at different times and defenders who chip in with goals, as we saw at the weekend.
I like what I am seeing from Newcastle now, and they will have too much for a Leeds side I am not convinced of on the road. At -152, I am not putting them forward on the money line, but on the -0.75 Asian Handicap, any win guarantees us profit with a full return at -121 if they win by two or more goals.
EPL Best Bet: Newcastle United vs Leeds United – Newcastle -0.75 Asian Handicap at -121.
Brentford vs. Sunderland
Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ET
Credit to Sunderland. I thought they would lean heavily on their home form and also suffer with six players at AFCON on international duty, but they continue to pick up positive results – although I am not sure how.
At the weekend, Tottenham dominated them in the first half and should have been at least two goals ahead; prior to that, they were very fortunate against Leeds and regularly get outperformed on the underlying data.
Their secret is to dig in, work incredibly hard, and play as a unit, but that has got to take its toll, especially at this busy time of year and with successive road games. They have tied their last four matches, but I think that ends here.
Brentford fly out of the traps and play with an intensity that is hard to live with. Just ask Everton, who they swept aside 4-2 on the road at the weekend, where they normally struggle with Igor Thiago smashing in a superb hat-trick.
At home, I am very confident in them but not too keen at a price of -122. However, looking through the stats, if you like Brentford to win as I do, then you must expect that man Thiago to be involved.
What a signing he has been with 14 league goals to his name now. Only Erling Haaland has more. Here he lines up with his side as strong a favorite as we are likely to see them this season.
Only the top three have a better home record than Brentford, and Thiago is a massive contributor to that with seven goals in their last eight league games on home soil. With the Bees priced at -122, it makes the +100 on their talisman to score the better value.
EPL Best Bet: Brentford vs Sunderland – Igor Thiago to score at +100.
