EPL Best Bets and Predictions March 15-16:
Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Leicester vs. Manchester United
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET
At the time of writing, Manchester United are due to be playing a huge European fixture at home to Real Sociedad, but the opposition here is so bad there is nothing that could happen on Thursday that would put me off this bet. As a result, this is my best bet of the week.
Although the table and points tally may tell you it is Southampton, the worst side in the Premier League right now is Leicester. All their underlying data is absolutely awful. After starting with a flourish, Ruud van Nistelrooy seems to have no idea how to halt a pitiful slide back to the Championship.
The Foxes fans have had enough and have turned on the board, which is staggering when you consider what the Srivaddhanaprabha family have built at the club. The fairytale Premier League win in 2016 and FA Cup triumph of 2021 seem a lifetime ago, with the toxic atmosphere in the stadium and protests outside not helping the team turn things around on the pitch.
Leicester have lost 12 of their last 13 league games, and the goals have totally dried up. They’ve failed to score in any of their last six at home whilst conceding 15 across those same fixtures. Most recently, a 1-0 loss at Chelsea may look respectable, but they were never in the game and should have lost by far more with Mads Hermansen saving a Cole Palmer penalty.
These two sides have already met three times this season, with all those games offering Manchester United rare moments of joy in a terrible campaign for them. A 5-2 League Cup victory was quickly followed by cruising to a 3-0 win in the league, ironically both with van Nistelrooy in temporary charge. Last month, Ruben Amorim saw his side knock Leicester out of the FA Cup courtesy of a late Harry Maguire winner.
Relegation seems a formality for the Foxes, with games against Manchester City, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool to follow this one. I can’t see anything other than a fairly comfortable win for the Red Devils here, who are showing just the slightest signs of improvement.
This week, the club announced they are looking to build a new 100,000-seater stadium, something that the fanbase has been calling for for some time. They will be pleased to hear a good news story and see some investment.
I’m not taking the -132 for a United win. Instead, I am playing the -0.75 handicap at -103. Half the stake will be on the win, the other half on -1. Meaning. if they win by one goal, we get a half-stake win, and a full payout for a victory by two or more, which I fully expect.  Â
EPL Pick: Manchester United -0.75 Asian Handicap at -103.
Everton vs. West Ham
Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
I’m keeping it simple here and backing Everton to win on the money line and at plus money. I really like this spot for many reasons.
After thinking there would be little difference from the departing Sean Dyche, David Moyes’ impact on the club has been incredible. Not only stopping the losing rot, eight league games unbeaten now, but playing attacking soccer and scoring lots of goals.
There could be no better man in charge for this great old club’s final season at Goodison Park. He believes in the club, understands the culture and the people, and the people love him. They are showing such great fight and spirit, proof of what a club can do when players, coaches and fans are all as one.
The Toffees only have five games left in their old stadium before their move to Bramley-Moore Dock ahead of next season. Those final games will be emotional and played in a white-hot partisan atmosphere, which makes Everton a play pretty much regardless of who they are facing.
Next up are a West Ham side who are not in good form, struggling for goals and relying heavily on Jarrod Bowen. They last played on Monday but were very disappointing, losing at home to Newcastle. For various reasons, Newcastle were there for the taking but came away with a 1-0 win.
Graham Potter has had a lot of problems to solve since taking over as manager from Julen Lopetegui and has had nowhere near the impact of Moyes. The former Brighton and Chelsea manager has been pretty negative in his approach, with six of his eight league games in charge cashing for Under 2.5 goals, including each of the last four.
In their last four at home in the league, Everton have beaten Leicester and Tottenham and drew with Manchester United and Liverpool. They also have a great record against West Ham, scoring more goals in the Premier League versus the Hammers than any other team.
Moyes also has a point to prove against his former employers, having been moved on to make way for Lopetegui, and he, too, has a good head-to-head record. With all those factors considered, this looks like a great price for a home win.
Pick: Everton vs West Ham – Everton to win at +108.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
In most years, this is usually a massive clash. Although it may not be for Arsenal this season, it certainly is for Chelsea, who start the weekend in fourth place but with severe competition all around them. After a poor run of form saw them slip down the table, Enzo Maresca’s side have won three in a row and have their fate back in their own hands.
However, look at who they played in those most recent fixtures, and you will see they couldn’t have had it any easier. That was especially the case in their two Premier League games, where they faced Southampton and Leicester both at home.
I know a lot of Chelsea fans. They are still unhappy with the manager and the style of soccer they are being served up at Stamford Bridge. Cole Palmer, who was in the running for player of the season, has gone off the boil completely and even missed his first Premier League penalty last weekend.
As already mentioned, they got the job done against the Foxes; they should have won by more, but another three points and a clean sheet is sometimes all that matters at this stage of the campaign. This will be different, though. It’s Arsenal, and the Blues fans will be up for it rather than just sitting back expecting a victory.
This feels like a really good time to face the Gunners, whose issues on offense have been all too well documented. People may point to the PSV tie in the Champions League, but I am drawing a line through both games as far as a form guide is concerned. It was a great result but a freak one.
Looking at their recent form in the Premier League, all the games have been tight and cagey. Last weekend, they tied 1-1 with Manchester United. Before that, it was a goalless game with Nottingham Forest, a terrible 1-0 home defeat to West Ham, and unconvincing 2-0 and 1-0 wins at Leicester and Wolves. Since losing all their attackers, it has been one Under after another.
There has been a lot of discontent around Arsenal, missing out on a great chance to win the league. Failure to invest in a striker cost them. But now, suddenly, they have a Champions League tie with Real Madrid to look forward to. There will suddenly be a buzz about the place.
The need for Chelsea is much stronger in this one to avoid defeat, and this could well follow the pattern of the reverse fixture. That game ended in a 1-1 tie at Stamford Bridge in November.
It is not often I put a tie forward as an official play, but I have a very strong feeling about this one. Arsenal is tough at home, and I don’t think Chelsea are good enough to beat them, but they can avoid defeat.
EPL Pick: Match to end in a Tie at +265.
