EPL Best Bets and Predictions March 21-22
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Aston Villa vs. West Ham
Sunday, 10:15 a.m. ET
This weekend sees the last Premier League action for three weeks, with an international break followed by a weekend of FA Cup action. The top two battle it out for silverware in the League Cup final, but there is still lots of action and three best bets from me elsewhere.
Aston Villa are on a rotten run of form, three defeats on the spin in the Premier League and only one win in seven. They have conceded nine goals in those three defeats and another three when Newcastle knocked them out of the FA Cup.
The Villains have badly missed some key players, but the good news for them is a few are now starting to return. John McGinn may not get the headlines as much as some, but in my opinion is one of, if not the most influential players at the club and started in last weekend’s 3-1 defeat at Manchester United.
Rather than picking a winner of this match, I prefer to play the goals angle. This fixture has a history of goals with 40 in the last 13 meetings at 3.08 per game and both teams scoring in 12, including this season’s reverse fixture, which ended 3-2 to Villa.
Visitors West Ham have picked up more points on the road than when playing with home advantage, so they will come expecting to leave with a positive result. They have given themselves a great chance of survival with the way they are playing, looking to pick up points in style rather than grind their way to safety.
The Hammers have played 11 league games in 2026 and scored in 9 of them. While Villa has goals back in the team, crucially with Ollie Watkins on the scoresheet last weekend, and he will want to get on a run now to secure his place at the World Cup.
Both teams to score: Yes is -167 to keep that trend going, while Over 2.5 goals is -134, which I feel is a little too short. Moving the line to Over 2.75 goals (half stake on Over 2.5 and half on Over 3) looks the play, with profit if there are three or more goals and a full return at -106 for four or more.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs West Ham – Over 2.75 goals at -106.
Brighton vs. Liverpool
Saturday, 8:30 a.m. ET
Liverpool swept Galatasaray aside 4-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday to progress to the quarterfinals and a clash with PSG. But the Reds at home and in European competition are a different beast from when they play on the road in the Premier League.
Initially, I looked at this fixture thinking it would be a no bet game as it looked the trickiest one to call on the card this weekend. The prices on both sides winning seem about right, and Over 2.5 goals has cashed in nine of the last 10 meetings, so the sportsbooks are taking no chances there.
However, this will be Liverpool’s fifth match in two weeks, a serious amount of soccer at the highest level, and they are in need of a break. They showed that last weekend in the terrible tie with Tottenham but found extra reserves for that midweek defeat of Gala.
Therefore, we should expect a little bit of a comedown in this match. Then, whilst researching, I found a stat that astounded me.
Liverpool have played 15 road games in the Premier League this season and, incredibly, have only scored three first-half goals. So, on 12 occasions, they have drawn a blank. Add in the fatigue factor of a midweek game and early kick off here, and it seems too good an angle to ignore.
Given those numbers, I was shocked to see the price for Liverpool not to score in the first half at -110. Brighton games have also been very low on goals recently, with seven of their last eight at home seeing Under 2.5 cash, stopping the visitors from scoring in the first half in five of their last eight games at the Amex.
EPL Best Bet: Brighton vs Liverpool – Under 0.5 first-half goal for Liverpool at -110.
Leeds vs. Brentford
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
There is a really interesting game at Elland Road with Leeds sucked back into a relegation battle and Brentford still having an outside chance of finishing in a European place. But rather than an end-to-end thriller, I see this being a negative for goals, tight and cagey being the order of the day.
Leeds, very much unlike West Ham as outlined above, are trying to stay in the Premier League by being boring and grinding out ties. With home form crucial in their survival blueprint, it would be alarming for them to have lost two successive games on home soil; a third would be a disaster.
At a vital time of the season, the goals have dried up for Leeds. The last four league games have all cashed Under 2.5 goals, and they have failed to score in the last three.
Brentford have tied their last three games to stall that push for European soccer next season, but are only three points adrift of Chelsea in sixth. They will want to take the sting out of this noisy home crowd, then look to pick up a goal on the counterattack or from a set piece.
Only Bournemouth have tied more games this season than Leeds, but rather than take a chance on that outcome across the 90 minutes, I like the plus money on offer for a stalemate at half time. Daniel Farke has seen his side tie the first half in eight home games in the league. That’s 53%, while the odds only reflect a 45% chance, so we are getting an 8% edge with this bet.
With Leeds’ setup, I firmly believe that edge is even greater, so I am happy to play that as opposed to the Under 2.5 goals angle.
EPL Best Bet: Leeds vs Brentford – Tie at half-time at +118.
