EPL Best Bets and Predictions March 3-4
Here are the midweek EPL best bets:
Manchester City vs. Nottingham Forest
Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ET
The two teams left in the title race just about got the job done with hard fought single goal victories at the weekend. We now move quickly to a midweek set of fixtures ahead of a weekend break for FA Cup action.
My first bet is to take the side that has been here and done it before to keep up the pressure on the league leaders. Manchester City face Nottingham Forest and are priced at -275 to win the fixture, but taking them to win to nil boosts that price to a great looking +130.
Pep’s men are unbeaten in nine games across all competitions, winning their last seven at home. Three of their last four victories have come to nil.
This is a favorable matchup with Forest likely to target other, more winnable games coming up to pick up the points needed to avoid relegation. Team selection will be interesting, and I think the odds of a City win here are skewed with the prospect of Erling Haaland missing again.
The Norwegian was absent for Saturday’s 1-0 win at Leeds, and his side’s record may surprise many when he is not starting. Haaland has missed 18 games since the start of the 2022-23 season, with City winning 14 of them, a 78% success rate, so I am not put off but will simply pick up the better odds that are available as a result.
The final element of this is Manchester City’s record against Nottingham Forest since their return to the Premier League, winning 6-0, 2-0 and 3-0. With the visitors missing their best striker, Chris Wood, the chances of scoring their first goal at the Etihad are even less likely than in those previous unsuccessful visits.
EPL Best Bets: Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest – Manchester City to win to nil at +130.
Newcastle vs. Manchester United
Wednesday, 3:15 p.m. ET
From one Manchester team to another. I am also siding with the red half of the city to get the job done.
The +160 on the Moneyline for Michael Carrick’s men to win this is massive and will likely be well gone come kick off in the north east of England. I had them priced around +120. Given the price is so large, it gives us the opportunity to respect a Newcastle side traditionally good at home and play tie no bet, so we pocket a refund should the game end all square.
There is no logic as to why Newcastle are priced up as favorites here. Eddie Howe’s men have already played 46 games this season, six more than their opponents will play all campaign. That number is the highest in European soccer, and now they have their toughest run of fixtures in the club’s history.
Newcastle play Manchester City at the weekend in the FA Cup, Barcelona twice in the Champions League, Chelsea away, and the small matter of their local derby versus Sunderland, looking to avoid a league double defeat. Something must give. Howe has said as much, and I think it is a game like this.
A similar thing happened with Manchester United and Tottenham last season, who both tanked in the league in the hope of winning a trophy. Spurs were successful in that, and for the Geordies, the FA Cup represents their best hope, which means playing the best side possible against City this weekend.
There are always goals in this game, and I expect that trend to continue, which puts the visitors at a great advantage. They played a fearsome front four of Bruno, Mbeumo, Cunha and Sesko on Sunday. All those players are in great form, three of them directly involved in the goals of a 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace.
I can’t see them getting beat. They create as many chances as any team in the league and are playing with a swagger under Carrick, who is still unbeaten in nine games as United manager, winning seven. Expect another win to that tally, but I’m happy to have that safety net should Newcastle find a way to salvage a draw despite running on fumes.
EPL Best Bet: Newcastle vs Manchester United – Manchester United tie no bet at -117.
Fulham vs. West Ham
Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ET
West Ham were on the wrong end of a 5-2 thrashing at Liverpool last weekend, but I think that is the way Nuno has set his team up to play now. He has realised he doesn’t have the personnel to defend, so he has to have a real go regardless of who or where they are playing.
Hammers fans have demanded a certain brand of soccer, which is why the likes of David Moyes, despite being successful, were moved on. Well, they are getting that from this version of their team as they continue to fight for Premier League survival.
Since making some key transfers in the January window, Nuno’s men look very strong offensively, and in turn, that is bringing the best out of Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville. In a short period, they have gone from being an Under 2.5 goals team to an Over bettors dream.
Again, I am surprised at the value we are getting here. Over 2.5 goals at -120 seems a steal.
For their part, Fulham games just always feature goals. Their last seven matches and nine of the last 10 have cashed for Over 2.5 goals, with the last five at home seeing at least three goals.
Marco Silva loves his sides to attack, and they have scored in 15 of their 16 fixtures across all competitions at Craven Cottage this season. Only failing to hit the back of the net against the best defense in Europe, possibly the World at the time, Arsenal.
I can’t see any way that this can’t produce goals, as both teams are set up that way. This looks like the perfect storm, and Over 2.5 goals here is a very strong selection.
EPL Best Bet: Fulham vs West Ham – Over 2.5 goals at -120.
