Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Southampton vs. Manchester City
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Another fantastic midweek of Champions League action is done. Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan are set to battle it out in Munich at the end of the month to decide who is the best club side in Europe. Back to the Premier League action and straight in with my bet of the week, which is for Manchester City to win to nil at odds of +100.
They travel to a Southampton side that has only won 11 points across the entire campaign, conceding 82 goals along the way, with 45 of those coming on home soil. Pep has guided his team to an unbeaten run of nine games, including winning each of their last five fixtures across all competitions.
It has been well documented that last season’s champions have had a difficult campaign, but they are now playing their best soccer of the season. Not quite back to their all-conquering best, but certainly back to somewhere near the level we have become used to from them.
Guardiola has used the last few months to embrace the transition and implement a new system. An added bonus is the potential return from injury of goal-machine Erling Haaland, who may feature in some form here.
There is no doubt Man City will win the match, as you would expect from a side priced at around -530, but the boost to +100 just to win and keep a clean sheet is too good to ignore. I like it when they have a target to chase, and a win here would see them move ahead of Arsenal and into second place behind champions Liverpool, who the Gunners visit on Sunday.
Five of City’s last seven league wins have been “to-nil”. The new system of both full backs tucking in has made them look more defensively organized, and they can keep a Southampton side, who have “lost-to-nil” at home on eight occasions already, off the scoresheet once more.
The Saints, still under interim manager Simon Rusk, have little to play for. Yes, they need one more point to move ahead of Derby as a team collecting the fewest number of points in a Premier League season, but that point won’t come against this City side.
It goes without saying how bad they have been all season, but that was underlined last weekend with a 2-0 defeat at an already relegated Leicester side one place above them in the table. A leaky defense and an attack that has scored just 12 times in 17 home games welcoming in-form visitors is a fixture that can only go one way.
EPL Pick: Man City win-to-nil at +100.
Wolves vs. Brighton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
This is an interesting fixture between two sides who have both had seasons of two halves. Brighton are marginal favorites to win, and you would agree with that if this was being played three months ago, but on current form, Wolves are the bet, having won six of their previous seven league games. The Seagulls have only one win in their last eight and no clean sheet in nine EPL outings.
Vitor Pereira has done an incredible job and has guided a side which was in deep relegation trouble when he took over to the mid-table comfort of 13th. They were unfortunate to lose at Man City last week, showing plenty of attacking threat, hitting the frame of the goal twice, and coming close to scoring on a few other occasions.
However, my angle here is a goals one with both sides looking like the perfect end-of-season match-up. You could play lower lines, but for me, I must take on the Over 3 Asian Total at +118, with four or more goals needed to cash the ticket in full, but a full refund of our stake if there are exactly three.
The home side has one of the most in-demand attackers in the Premier League in Matheus Cunha, and he has a talented support cast to help him. Brighton also has goals throughout the team, highlighted by the fact that eight of their last 10 road matches have seen at least three goals, with seven of those featuring four or more.
Having been drawn together in the League Cup, these two sides have already met twice this season. That fixture ended 3-2 to Brighton while the league game at the Amex ended in a 2-2 tie.
The end of the season traditionally brings more open encounters with less or no jeopardy on the line. This game fits that bill and should be an entertaining watch with plenty of goals once again.
EPL Pick: Wolves vs Brighton – Over 3 Asian Total at +118.
Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 9:15 a.m. ET
I am writing this a couple of hours before Tottenham travel to Bodø/Glimt for the second leg of their Europa League semi-final, where they take a two-goal lead to Norway and are -1000 to make it to the final – but if any team can throw that kind of advantage away, it is Spurs! However, I do think they will qualify and then face a Crystal Palace side that has an FA Cup final to look forward to next weekend. In short, both these teams’ priorities lie elsewhere.
Before we even consider which key players will be rested, there has been some bad fitness news for both sides. James Maddison has injured his knee to such an extent it will keep him out for the season, a big blow with Heung-Min Son still unavailable. For the Eagles, Adam Wharton twisted his ankle in the last game, while Eberechi Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta are so crucial to the team they will unlikely be risked.
Essentially, this should read Tottenham Reserves vs. Crystal Palace Reserves. Of those players who do start, not one will do anything that could risk an injury that would keep them out of the huge fixtures ahead.
Looking at the odds, it is +150 for a Spurs win, +160 for Palace. One of my betting philosophies is if you can’t split them, back the tie, and this is a match that neither is worried about winning, that goes for the supporters too.
That all makes the +270 on the tie a massive price. Add in the fact that Oliver Glasner has seen his side tie their last three games in the Premier League, and it just must be played here.
Their last road trip was also in North London and ended in a 2-2 tie at Arsenal. The match lacked intensity as it came days before their semi-final with Villa and just before the Gunners’ Champions League first-leg semi-final against PSG. The parallels are there to see and are obvious.
This is just a game that is an inconvenience to both. They want to get it out of the way so they can move on. The tie is the standout selection at a great price.
EPL Pick: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace – Tie at +270
