Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Newcastle vs. Everton
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
Sunday sees the final weekend of the Premier League season in England, with all 10 fixtures kicking off at 11 a.m. ET. I love this final round of matches and, as always, I’m confident of picking some winners at nice prices.
My best bet comes from St James Park, where Newcastle needs a win against Everton to guarantee themselves Champions League soccer next season. The visitors have won their last two league games, but that was in the build-up to and including the monumental final fixture at their historic Goodison Park stadium.
David Moyes’ side got the job done last week, beating rock-bottom Southampton 2-0, and a hugely emotional sendoff followed the final whistle, with a host of ex-players paraded on the pitch. There was joy, sadness, and memories galore in what was a huge occasion. Now, they simply must fulfill the last fixture of the season. Time to take a breath.
In contrast for Newcastle, it is all about the here and now. It is their turn to have an incredible home support behind them, roaring them on to get the win needed to make a return to the most prestigious club competition in European soccer.
The way this side embraces that atmosphere, how they play, and the goals they score, this could get messy for Everton. Eddie Howe’s men are expected to win, priced at -335, but I am happy to take them on the -1.5 Asian Handicap at -108 as I think that not only will they win but run up a big scoreline in the process.
Newcastle have scored at least two goals in 10 of their last 12 home games in the Premier League. They come flying out of the traps, get ahead early and kick on, as they have done in winning each of their last six on home soil.
The hosts are one of the most formidable home teams in the league and take on an Everton side that is already done for the season. This could end 4-0, 5-0, or even 6-0.
Expect 23-goal top scorer Alexander Isak to return to the side after missing the 1-0 defeat at Arsenal. Eddie Howe ruled out surgery for him, saying it was more a setback from a previous injury. To me, that sounds like he was protected to ensure he would be available for this clash at home.
Newcastle has the form, they have the incentive, and most importantly, the ability to win this comfortably to create another party atmosphere in the north-east.
EPL Pick: Newcastle vs Everton – Newcastle -1.5 Asian Handicap at -108.
Tottenham vs. Brighton
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
What a week it has been for Tottenham. They claimed their first trophy in 17 years after defeating Manchester United 1-0 on Wednesday, a first European success since 1984.
That win means that, despite looking likely to finish 17th in the Premier League, Spurs will be in next season’s Champions League. It remains to be seen if Ange Postecoglou, who promised some silverware in his second campaign, will still be at the club to manage them in it.
There will be a party atmosphere at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium on Sunday, and the home fans will not care what the outcome of the game is. Win, lose, or tie, there is no way it will ruin their day.
For Brighton, this is a massive match as they need a point to secure eighth place in the table. That could be enough to get them European soccer next term, too. Owner Tony Bloom will demand no complacency, especially as the only team that can overtake them is Brentford, owned by rival Matthew Benham
Rather than pick a winner or find an angle to get Brighton on side, this is all about goals for me. Over 4.5 is the play at +180.
The last day of the season traditionally sees a spike in the number of goals scored, and the traders reflect that in their prices. They take no chances. The value is often to take Over 4.5 goals rather than the usual line of Over 3.5, and that is the case here.
Prices show this fixture has the highest expected goals with over 3.5 priced at an incredible -134 but taking the line above gives us a selection at plus money.
Postecoglou parked “Angeball” to claim the Europa League title, but expect it to be back in full force this Sunday by way of celebration. He even confirmed after the game on Wednesday how he sees knockout soccer as being different from league soccer. Adopting a much more pragmatic approach, centred around organization rather than attacking flair.
That will be music to Brighton’s ears, both teams will play a high line, and we should see something more like a basketball game. The reverse fixture ended in a 3-2 win for Brighton after they produced an incredible second-half comeback to overturn a 2-0 halftime deficit.
End-of-season vibes play into a party atmosphere. With the visitors needing something from the game, it all adds up to goals….and plenty of them.
EPL Pick: Tottenham vs Brighton – Over 4.5 goals at +180.
Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
Talking of party atmosphere, there will probably be none bigger than at Anfield this Sunday. Liverpool finally gets their hands on the Premier League trophy after clinching it a few weeks ago, and who should be the visitors? None other than Crystal Palace, who caused an upset last weekend by beating Manchester City to win their first-ever FA Cup.
There will be handshakes, high-fives, and backslapping all over the place on Merseyside. Over the years, there have been some fantastic matches between these two sides, and we should see another spectacle this weekend.
Liverpool won the title at this ground with a 5-1 thrashing of Tottenham last month, and their three games since then have seen 13 goals. On Tuesday, Palace had to play the game they should have had last weekend, and it was a crazy affair which ended with them beating Wolves 4-2. Their last four road trips have produced 18 goals.
I expect plenty of goals. Once again, I am adopting the same strategy as in the Spurs game. Over 3.5 goals is priced at -125, but take the line higher and there is a huge difference, +195.
This game really could be anything, with both teams just going out to enjoy the match and put on a spectacle for the fans. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar outcome to when Palace went to Man City in the league last month, a clash that ended 5-2, or even the points shared via a high-scoring tie like 3-3.
Mo Salah is still chasing personal landmarks of 30 goals and 20 assists, while on the other side, everything Eberechi Eze touches turns to goals. Once again, a match that just adds up to goals galore.
EPL Pick: Liverpool vs Crystal Palace – Over 4.5 goals at +195.
Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
A bonus fourth selection this week to end the season in what is undoubtedly the biggest game of the final round. What a huge fixture for Nottingham Forest, who go into the weekend in seventh place, a point behind Chelsea in fifth. A win gives them a chance of being in the Champions League for the first time since 1980/81 when it was called the European Cup.
For Chelsea, a win guarantees them Champions League soccer next term, although a tie could be enough if results elsewhere go their way.
All of which points towards this being a feisty affair with both sides going all in and giving 100%. Of all the matches this weekend, this is the one game that could really boil over. While in many fixtures, I would not be surprised to see no cards shown by the referee. At the City Ground, we could see several.
The reverse fixture saw nine yellow cards and one red. Anthony Taylor is the referee on Sunday. Earlier in the season, he handed out 14 bookings when he took charge of Chelsea’s game at Bournemouth, but if you re-watch that match, there were no more than three bad tackles in it.
Taylor has given six red cards in his last eight fixtures, including one in his last appointment, Liverpool’s 2-2 tie at home to Arsenal earlier this month. The line set here is for Over 5.5 cards. I wouldn’t put anyone off playing that, but I’m going big and taking for there to be a red card (sending off) at +350.
EPL Pick: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea – A red card to be shown at +350.
