EPL Best Bets and Predictions November 1-3:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Burnley vs. Arsenal
Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
Last weekend saw the perfect set of results for Arsenal and all those who support them or who have backed them to win the title. The Gunners took care of their own business by recording a 1-0 win against tricky opponents Crystal Palace. As a bonus, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea all lost—the first time that trio were all beaten on the same matchday for close to 10 years.
Mikel Arteta’s men are now -225 to win the Premier League this season, and it looks like it is theirs to lose. They have the squad depth, and if they do fail to get over the line, there will be some serious questions asked. For now, they are winning and, when necessary, winning ugly.
That could be a trend that continues this weekend as they take on Burnley. Arsenal is priced at -345 to claim the win, but for my best bet, I am betting them to win to nil, which boosts the price to what looks a massive -114.
The Gunners have played 14 games this season across all competitions and have won 12 of those, but incredibly, 11 have come “to nil” – winning and not conceding a goal. They have won all of their six October fixtures, becoming the first English top-flight team in history to play six games in a month and win them all without conceding a single goal.
Burnley are a side that will give it a go when playing a similar level of opponent, see last weekend’s 3-2 win at Wolves, but seem to play for a 0-0 tie when up against the better teams. The game that leaps to mind is the 1-0 defeat at home to Liverpool, when the Clarets had 19% of the ball and managed just three attempts at goal, all of which were off target.
Scott Parker would snatch your hand off if you offered him a point from this clash, but more importantly for him is next week’s meeting with West Ham, a real relegation battle. History backs this theory up with Arsenal winning six of their last eight visits to Turf Moor, five of those coming to nil.
Arsenal showed that not only is their first-choice defense the best in class, but they have backup options too. A fully rotated backline played in the midweek cup win against Brighton and once again kept a clean sheet.
Arteta’s men now expect to shut sides out and have only allowed one shot on target in their last three league games. While at the other end, they can blow teams away with the technical brilliance of Saka or Eze, but if it’s not their day, they know they are the best set-piece team in the land, so they can win that way too.
Expect an Arsenal win, expect it to come with another clean sheet, and at -114 that represents huge value.
EPL Best Bet: Burnley vs Arsenal – Arsenal win to nil at -114.
Sunderland vs. Everton
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
What Sunderland have done this season has shocked everyone. Nine games played and the newly promoted side have five wins to their name, 17 points on the board and sit fourth.
Winning games at home wasn’t expected, but it hasn’t been a massive surprise. Yet to go to a Chelsea side who had won four on the spin and deservedly win 2-1 has made us all sit up and take notice. They return to home soil for this clash, and it is a Monday night fixture in the UK, which means the Stadium of Light will be absolutely rocking.
The visitors are Everton, and I think this is a really good time to be playing them. Having watched their last two fixtures, I was alarmed at how their levels had dropped.
David Moyes must know his side desperately needs a striker, with Beto just not fit for purpose. After what was a brilliant start to his loan spell from Manchester City, which saw people clamoring for his return to the England setup, Jack Grealish has seen his standards slip also and was nonexistent in the 3-0 defeat at home to Tottenham.
I just feel this is a great opportunity for Sunderland, but I do want to keep the tie onside, so I won’t be betting them at +175 on the Moneyline. So, tie no bet is the play at -112, meaning if the match does end all square, we get a refund of our stake.
I expected Everton to have a good season and push on up into the top half, maybe even challenge for the European places. Without a goalscoring striker, they will fall short of that.
It is now only one win in seven for them across all competitions, and they are starting to regularly disappoint. I thought they would be tough to beat in their new stadium, but that hasn’t quite been the case, and they were really poor when I went to watch them in the flesh against West Ham.
With Everton marginal favorites for this clash, I think Sunderland are being undervalued. This is a side that from four home league games, have won three and tied one. The tie was against a very good Aston Villa side despite being a man down for over an hour.
In my opinion, I don’t think there will be many places separating these two sides by the end of the season. Therefore, it doesn’t seem right to me that the hosts are the underdog with home support and the better form against a vulnerable Everton.
EPL Best Bet: Sunderland vs Everton – Sunderland tie no bet at -112.
Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United
Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
My final bet of the weekend involves two sides who I have had a rebase on. Most people are talking about Manchester United and how things are looking a lot more positive. There certainly seems to be plenty of money coming for them each week.
Last season, United were +220 to win this fixture, but now they are +108. However, that still appeals to me, and I am betting them at those much shorter odds.
Much has changed in the six months since Ruben Amorim’s rejuvenated side last visited the City Ground, but this isn’t just about them. The Nottingham Forest situation is the one that has changed massively.
When these two sides last met, Forest were still playing for a Champions League spot. Now, they are in the bottom three and in a fight to stay in the Premier League. Under the then guidance of Nuno Espírito Santo, they beat Brentford 3-1 on the opening day of the season, before the Portuguese manager was sacked following a 3-0 defeat to West Ham two games later.
Ange Postecoglou was immediately installed as the new head coach but lasted just 39 days before being replaced by Sean Dyche. The former Everton boss lost his only league game in charge last weekend at Bournemouth, meaning Forest have just five points after nine league games played.
The defeat to the Cherries made it not only four straight league defeats, but four games without scoring, while in that period of time, Manchester United have won three times and scored nine goals. The goalscoring threat of the visitors should be the difference maker here and does make them worth betting at plus money.
Last week, two marquee signings really caught the eye, and I thought they were absolutely brilliant. Bryan Mbeumo bagged two goals against Brighton to double his tally for the season, and Matheus Cunha scored his first for the club in a 4-2 win.
With those two added to the likes of Bruno Fernandes, fitting the style demanded by Amorim, the Portuguese boss should see his side record a fourth straight league win and ease a bit more pressure from his shoulders.
EPL Best Bet: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United – Manchester United to win at +108.
