EPL Best Bets and Predictions November 22-24:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Manchester United vs. Everton
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
The last international break of the year is over, and we move on to an interesting weekend of Premier League fixtures sandwiched between internationals and Champions League action. There isn’t traditionally too much impact, but look out for next weekend, where I could be fading some of the hot favorites.
My best bet from match day 12 comes in a match between two sides not in European competition this season, and, as a result, given the prime-time slot on Monday. Are Manchester United “back”? Well, I’m not so sure about that, but I am taking them to win and win well.
The Red Devils are priced up at -136 to win here, but I like the look of the -0.75 Asian Handicap. A single-goal success gets us a half-stake win, but victory by two or more goals gets a full return at odds of -113.
Ruben Amorim is finally getting a consistent tune out of his players and has seen them go undefeated in five matches. Performances have been even better at home, where after losing to Arsenal on the opening weekend of the season, they have gone on to win four successive games.
This is largely in part due to the fact they are now scoring goals. They have hit the back of the net at least twice in eight of their last 10 fixtures across all competitions and in all those four wins at Old Trafford.
Despite starting life adequately in their new stadium, Everton’s form on the road has been dreadful. They have lost four of their six away games this campaign, with their only win coming against rock bottom Wolves.
David Moyes returns to his former club with an awful record against them, having only won seven of his 40 meetings, losing 25 times. That terrible return is similar to that of his employers, who have not won at Old Trafford since 2013, a run of 12 games where they have been beaten on eight occasions, including each of the last four visits, each time by at least two goals and cashing this ticket in full.
Manchester United may not be back, but they are not far off it, and I want to take advantage of this Everton side being overvalued in the market.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester United vs Everton – Manchester United -0.75 Asian Handicap at -113.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
Next up is an intriguing clash at the Emirates. I think this week there are a lot of strong favorites – the Gunners are -265 – that will probably get over the line, but it will be testing for them to do so.
I have a feeling this North London derby may not be as clear-cut as the odds suggest. Arsenal are the team to beat in the Premier League, the -167 favorites to become champions. They are four points clear at the top of the table and lead the way in most of the key underlying metrics.
Every season, leading into Christmas, just as they take a grip of the title race Arsenal seem to have major injury concerns, and it has happened again. Gabriel, a contender for Player of the Season, was injured playing for Brazil and is set for weeks on the sidelines, missing such a crucial part of the campaign.
Add him to absentees Gyökeres, Havertz, Madueke, Martinelli, plus doubts over Odegaard and Calafiori, then there are issues in most areas of the team. Any further injuries and they could be in trouble.
They face a Spurs side under Thomas Frank who are doing exceptionally well. Fifth in the table despite dealing with a whole host of injuries themselves.
The new boss is getting his fair share of criticism, and each week we are seeing a negative to them in the betting market. But they are picking up points and will make the short trip in a confident mood, given their strong road form: they are undefeated in five league games, having won four.
Yes, the local rivalry makes this a huge clash, but both teams have massive Champions League games next week. Arsenal entertain Bayern Munich while Tottenham travel to Paris Saint-Germain – they don’t come much bigger.
As a consequence, I think that has a negative on this fixture. Look at the stats and you will see this game historically features goals; the last seven league games here have cashed for Over 2.5 goals, with the same applying in nine of the last 12 across all venues.
None of those fixtures have involved a Thomas Frank-coached Tottenham. I think his game plan here will be to frustrate Arsenal, defend deep, resolutely, and try to hit the home side on the break.
I don’t think this will be the end-to-end goal-fest that we have become accustomed to, and many expect. Due to those injuries, Thomas Frank’s management style and those massive European fixtures are on the horizon.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal vs Tottenham – Under 2.5 goals at +102.
Burnley vs. Chelsea
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
Chelsea went into the international break in good form. Recovering from that shock defeat to Sunderland and recording back-to-back wins to nil.
The Blues have now won seven of their last nine fixtures across all competitions and, after a slow start, are up to third in the league, six points off Arsenal at the top. They have the potential to challenge, but that will mean winning games like this one and not having another slip-up against a newly promoted side.
The Club World Cup champions face a Burnley outfit that will look to make this a turgid affair. Scott Parker will set his side up in the same way he did against Liverpool and Arsenal; they were not embarrassed in either but lost both without scoring.
The Clarets can pick up points against sides in and around them, but when they face the elite, they fall well short. They are also conceding goals, shipping at least two in six of their last seven fixtures.
Expect the visitors, who are priced at -215, to justify favoritism and do a professional job. By adding “to nil” to the win, we are boosting the price to +135.
Enzo Maresca has said he could have up to 11 players out, but if there is any squad that can cope with that, it surely is Chelsea. You would expect at least one or two of those doubtful to still line up here, get a cushion, and then get taken off with an eye to a clash with Barcelona in midweek, then Arsenal next weekend.
Those injuries are also countered by absentees for Burnley, who will feel the loss of missing players a lot more than the visitors. Team news is important, but expect Chelsea to navigate that, secure the win and keep a third successive Premier League clean sheet.
EPL Best Bet: Burnley vs Chelsea – Chelsea win to nil at +135.
