EPL Best Bets and Predictions November 8-9:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Sunderland vs. Arsenal
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
This weekend sees the last Premier League action for a couple of weeks as we go into the final international break of the year. Here are my three best bets of Match Day 11 ahead of the brief pause in action, although I will forgive you for thinking my best bet is something of a copy-and-paste job from last weekend.
Now, to some extent, it is. Arsenal are -265 to win this match, but by taking them to do so and keep a clean sheet, that price jumps to +100, and so they simply must be my best bet of the week for a second week running.
Fortunately for me, since my last column where I tipped the Gunners to beat Burnley to nil, not only did they cash that for us, they have gone on to beat Slavia Prague to nil in the Champions League as well. In doing so, they have set a whole host of new records to give me fresh material for the same bet.
Mikel Arteta’s team leads the Premier League by six points after five straight wins, keeping clean sheets in the last four. Another shutout here would give Arsenal their first run of five consecutive league wins to-nil since 1987.
The Gunners are on a current run of eight straight wins across all competitions without conceding, a new club record. A run that equals the longest ever by an English top-flight side, set by Preston (1889) and Liverpool (1920), with over 100 years passing since it was last achieved, it really does show what an incredible performance it is.
I feel they will take that record in their own right with another clean sheet victory at Sunderland on Saturday. A worthy achievement for a side that I now consider to be not just the best in England but the best in the World.
The victory over Burnley last weekend made it the longest winning streak under Arteta, and that was extended to 10 games in Prague on Tuesday. That run has been built on their watertight defense, which has seen them not concede a goal for eight games – a joint club record set in 1903!
I can’t get my head around the price we are getting here for the league leaders to win the way they win games of soccer. A reminder they have won 14 of their 16 competitive fixtures this term, with 13 of those coming “to nil”, and let us not forget as well as Sunderland have started the season, they are still a newly promoted side.
Arsenal have won 24 of their last 25 Premier League games against newcomers to the division, winning five of their last seven on the road at such opponents to nil. Sunderland are unbeaten at home, but none of their visitors are in the current top half of the table, so this represents a massive step up in class.
Arteta’s men now expect to shut sides out and have only allowed three shots on target in their last six Premier League and Champions League games. It may take another set piece to break down this well-drilled Sunderland outfit, but expect them to find a way and to keep the Black Cats out at the other end too.
At +100, the Arsenal win to nil once again represents huge value.
EPL Best Bet: Sunderland vs Arsenal – Arsenal win to nil at +100.
West Ham vs. Burnley
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Last weekend, West Ham ended a nine-game winless run at the London Stadium by beating Newcastle – a first league success on home soil since beating Leicester in February. Few gave them much hope last weekend, and even less after conceding the opening goal, but they battled back to secure an impressive 3-1 victory, which can kickstart their survival bid.
It was an important signal of character as it was the first time the Hammers won a Premier League game from a losing position since their final home game of the 2023/24 campaign. A run of 32 league games without coming from behind to win three points.
It was a huge boost for new manager Nuno Espírito Santo, who had already begun to look a little frustrated by the task he had inherited. We know what we get with Nuno: good organization, a pragmatic but effective style that wins games.
There should now be renewed confidence ahead of this clash, which must be billed as a ‘six-pointer.’ A big win for West Ham will see them leapfrog the visitors and escape the relegation zone.
Having already lost to both the other two newly promoted sides in Sunderland and Leeds, there should be no complacency about what is needed to pick up a vital three points here.
Burnley struggle on the road and, like all the newly promoted trio, will be targeting their home games for most of their points. Prior to beating a shocking Wolves in their last away game, Scott Parker saw his side lose their opening four road trips in the league and have conceded 15 goals in total at exactly three per game.
The Clarets have conceded the third most goals in the Premier League (19) and rank bottom for expected goals conceded. At the other end, they have had the fewest shots, which will come as a relief to an overworked West Ham defense that are already showing signs of Nuno getting them in better shape.
In Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paquetá, and Crysencio Summerville, West Ham have real match winners, while Callum Wilson is an excellent number nine when fit. The Hammers have also made one of the most eye-catching signings of the summer in El Hadji Malick Diouf, who is a real threat up and down the left-hand side.
It is that extra bit of quality mixed in with Nuno’s know-how that will make the difference here, and I am taking West Ham to go into the international break on the back of two wins. It would be just the boost the Hammers need and could signal the start of the rise up the table we expect for sides under Nuno.
EPL Best Bet: West Ham vs. Burnley – West Ham to win at -105.
Brentford vs. Newcastle United
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
I am surprised to see Brentford six points clear of the relegation zone after 10 games of the season, a traditional checkpoint to work out what section of the table sides are likely to be occupying come the end of the campaign. It is even more of a surprise to see them one place ahead of Newcastle, although I am taking that not to be the case come the final whistle here.
The plus money about Eddie Howe’s men winning this match looks like a huge piece of value. Yes, they were terrible last weekend at West Ham, with the manager himself calling his side “unrecognizable,” and the fact he made a triple substitution at halftime spoke volumes.
The good news is that we have already seen a response with Newcastle beating Athletic Club 2-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday. It looked like a good thing to have a game so soon after the weekend, and the Toon looked much more like their usual selves and will now look to end a terrible road record.
This Newcastle side are far too good to only perform well at home, but they are currently without a win in eight consecutive Premier League road games. I think this comes down in part to a shift in style when playing away, becoming more defensive and showing a lack of intensity, which is very un-Newcastle-like.
That embarrassment at the London Stadium may be the wake-up call Eddie Howe needs to scrap Plan B and revert to what works. In Nick Woltemade, they have a striker who has hit the ground running since joining for $90 million as a replacement for Alexander Isak, with six goals in 13 appearances.
The injury to Anthony Gordon is a blow, but Newcastle has great depth in wide areas with Harvey Barnes and Anthony Elanga, but it is Jacob Murphy who is the wild card for me. Jarrod Bowen and Eberechi Eze are the only English players who have been directly involved in more Premier League goals than Murphy’s 14 (seven goals, seven assists) in 2025.
Brentford lost 2-0 at Crystal Palace last weekend and were very disappointing. I’m still not convinced Keith Andrews is the man to replace Thomas Frank in the long term, and his side have a terrible record against Newcastle.
Since gaining promotion to the Premier League, Brentford have faced Newcastle nine times and have lost seven of those meetings and have not kept one clean sheet. While the Toon have scored multiple times in all but one of those clashes.
This is the perfect opponent to halt that bad road record, and at +145, Newcastle can win at a very attractive price.
EPL Best Bet: Brentford vs Newcastle United – Newcastle United to win at +145.
