EPL Best Bets and Predictions October 17-18
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Nearly half the Premier League logged minutes on the pitch in midweek, with nine teams involved in either the Champions League, Europa League or Europa Conference League. There were mixed fortunes as always, but for your own betting, be sure to factor in travel schedules, fatigue and rotation, so stay close to official team news.
Premier League Matchday 7 rolls around with Manchester City still perfect – on the field at least – and a familiar look about the top two with Arsenal three points back. However, many judges’ dark horses fill third and fourth in Brentford and Brighton. It is the latter that is the first of my three best bets this weekend.
Fabian Hürzeler’s side have been the real eye-catchers in the opening exchanges this season. Top scorers with 18 goals through six rounds, while no side can beat their five conceded. Entertaining, clinical, yet organized and disciplined.
Their recent 3-0 dismantling of champions Arsenal was a real statement victory and remains the only game the Gunners haven’t won this season. But what I really liked was their defeat of Sunderland last weekend, a third straight Premier League win to nil. A game they managed out despite having Pascal Struijk sent off at 1-0 with more than 30 minutes left.
The Amex has become a real fortress again, with the hosts winning five of their last seven league games on home soil. That includes defeats of Liverpool, Chelsea and Aston Villa as well as that win against Arsenal. The Seagulls have scored 16 goals across those fixtures and kept four clean sheets, a real recipe for success.
Palace sit in a respectable-looking 12th place, but I watched their 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest last weekend. They should have been out of the game before they equalized out of the blue late in the first half, and the Eagles’ only other victory came at bottom-of-the-table Fulham, who are winless.
Although both sides were in European action on Thursday, Brighton were at home to Lithuanian minnows Kauno Žalgiris while Palace had a really tough trip to Lyon. Before that visit to France, the London side had won only two of their last 10 road trips, losing five.
Former manager Oliver Glasner had Palace well drilled, disciplined and tough to break down, but that is not the case currently as Pierre Sage finds his feet in the Premier League. Only three sides have conceded more than their 12 goals, but none have a higher expected goals against number.
Pascal Groß has rolled back the years since rejoining Brighton from Borussia Dortmund. The 35-year-old has registered three goals and four assists, with Maxim De Cuyper chipping in with four goal contributions too. In addition, both those players offer considerable set-piece delivery. Their side is a real threat with targets such as Lewis Dunk and Luka Vuskovic, even more so against a Palace side that have conceded a league-high 36 attempts from such situations.
Brighton are priced up at -180 to win this, but with home advantage and in their current free-scoring mood, they can grab an early goal to open this up. So, I am looking at a multi-goal margin of victory and taking the -1 Asian Handicap at -110, meaning we get the safety net of a full refund should the home side only win by a single goal.
EPL Best Bet: Brighton vs. Crystal Palace — Brighton -1 Asian Handicap at -110.
Leeds United vs. Manchester United
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
A hostile Elland Road on a Sunday afternoon against the old enemy is the last place under-pressure Michael Carrick would choose to go in an attempt to get the win he may need to save his job. The home side will be rested, revved up and ready for the visit of the Red Devils who endured a wretched trip to Spain in midweek.
It was bad enough to concede the opening goal after 47 seconds before slipping to a 2-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid, with Leny Yoro sent off. Defender Lisandro Martinez then upped the ante further by calling out the ownership for a lack of investment during the summer transfer window.
There’s not much going right for Carrick, whose side have shown a failure to hold on to a lead, struggle playing against 10 men, or to compete when they are a man light and a regular concession of late goals. All of which means that six games into the new season he has guided his team to the worst start in 40 years, form which brought the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson to the club.
That midweek slog against Diego Simeone’s men adds fatigue to a side that is regularly outrun and outfought by their opponents. Recent reports showed that United were outrun by 4 miles at Fulham and 2.85 miles against Tottenham. Expect more of the same on Sunday.
The Red Devils are now winless in their opening four road trips this season, losing not only in midweek but also against newly promoted Hull on the opening weekend. The contrast with Leeds’ home form is stark. Now unbeaten in eight games, winning five and stretching back to March.
Daniel Farke has built a strong, athletic and aggressive side at Elland Road. Highly organized, a massive threat from set pieces, but also with great technical ability and with a striker in Dominic Calvert-Lewin who is back to his best.
Leeds lost their first game of the season last weekend but made champions Arsenal fight all the way after taking the lead early in the second half. Fans and manager were heartbroken, but that will all be forgotten with a victory over their bitter rivals on Sunday.
The Yorkshiremen won the last meeting in April and can follow up here at plus money. Only the names on the slate are making the odds what they are. This is classic value against a big name that is not currently playing like one.
EPL Best Bet: Leeds United vs. Manchester United — Leeds to win @ +140.
Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
My final bet of the weekend is a familiar one to readers of this column. But I must go in again when it is a proven way to get Arsenal onside from -167 to +160. Yes, it is the win to nil, a bet that has already cashed a remarkable six times this season.
The Gunners’ only blip in an otherwise perfect start to the new campaign was that 3-0 reverse at Brighton. They responded last week with a hard-fought win over Leeds, and it was business as usual on Wednesday when they cruised to a 3-0 Champions League victory over Lille. They allowed the French side just four attempts at goal, none of which were on target and only three touches in their penalty area.
Five wins from six in the Premier League put them hot on the heels of pacesetters Manchester City, ahead of any points deductions. A solid 10 goals scored with talisman Bukayo Saka looking back to his best and at the other end a league joint-low five conceded, but no side beats their expected goals against of 4.66.
Forest sit 15th but are only three points off the bottom of the table. I watched them at Crystal Palace last weekend in a game they should have won but lost 3-1 after missing chance after chance.
What I saw there was the reason Oliver Glasner’s men have failed to score in any of their opening four games on home soil. Losing to Leeds twice (once in the league, once in the cup) and to newly promoted Coventry.
Forest has also failed to score against this Arsenal defense in their last four attempts. The last time they managed to hit the back of the net against the Gunners was an 89th-minute consolation strike in January 2024.
Both teams to score No is a safer play at -110, but the strength of depth at Mikel Arteta’s disposal means I struggle to see his team not scoring here, especially given how brittle the Forest defense looks.
It feels these games in between European fixtures are a case of get the job done and get out of town. Expect Arsenal to dominate territory, limit Forest to low-quality chances, and grind out a professional win to nil.
EPL Best Bet: Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal – Arsenal win to nil @ +160.
