EPL Best Bets and Predictions October 18-19:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Burnley vs. Leeds
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
The Premier League returns from the international break. So do I, after a fantastic couple of days in Latvia cheering England on to qualification for next summer’s World Cup co-hosted by the United States. From the highs and excitement of watching the Three Lions win 5-0 in Riga to my best bet of the weekend, where I expect far less goal action.
Burnley finished as narrow runners-up behind Leeds in the Championship last season as both sides amassed 100 points and claimed automatic promotion. The pair have started the new campaign in the top tier reasonably well. They will hold valid aspirations they can buck the recent trend and avoid an immediate relegation back from where they came.
It may be a stretch to call this a “six-pointer,” a well-used cliché to describe a game between two teams with similar league positions or goals, but this is still a massive fixture between two of the favorites for the drop. As such, expect a tight and cagey battle, as was the case in both clashes last term, which produced the grand total of one goal.
Both Scott Parker and Daniel Farke will prioritize not losing the match, and it would not surprise me to see this end in a 0-0 tie. That was the outcome when these two met here in January, combining for a paltry 12 attempts at goal, only one of which was on target, and a total expected goals number of 0.58.
The market agrees with Under 2.5 goals priced at -155, but I am happy to take under 2.25 goals here at -117. Guaranteeing profit if there are no more than two goals, but a full return if there is either none or one. Something I think is very likely.
Burnley may be in the bottom three, but they have had a very tough opening run of fixtures and have been competitive across all three home games. Beating the other promoted side Sunderland 2-0, agonizingly conceding a 90+5 minute penalty to champions Liverpool in a 1-0 defeat, and last time at Turf Moor playing out a 1-1 tie with Nottingham Forest—all three outcomes, of course, cashing this ticket at least in part.
The way these two sides are playing, the way both managers set their teams up, and the context of the fixture lend themselves perfectly to backing Unders. I wouldn’t put anyone off being more aggressive and playing as low as Under 1.5 goals, but for my best bet of the weekend, I am playing Under 2.25.
EPL Best Bet: Burnley vs Leeds – Under 2.25 goals at -117.
Fulham vs. Arsenal
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Arsenal went into the international break as the new leaders of the Premier League and are now -110 favorites to finally win the title. If they are going to justify those odds, these are exactly the type of matches they have to win.
Fulham have been a profitable fixture for the Gunners over recent seasons. Only losing one of the last 14 meetings in the Premier League across all venues, winning nine.
Mikel Arteta has seen his side drop points on their last two visits to Craven Cottage, but they won the previous five prior to that, posting an aggregate scoreline of 17-5 across those seven fixtures, scoring at least three times on four occasions. Having just claimed top spot, he will be desperate to consolidate that position by claiming all three points here.
As has been the case over the last two seasons, Arsenal has, without doubt, the best defense in the league—only three goals conceded in the opening seven games highlight that. In Viktor Gyökeres, they have a “flat track bully” type of striker who will score plenty of goals against the mid- to lower-ranked sides like Fulham.
I also feel there is a distraction around Marco Silva, with the home side’s manager being strongly linked with a move to Nottingham Forest. He never seems overly content and often appears to be agitating for a move away from the club.
As I said, if Arsenal are to win the Premier League, they need to go to places like this and win. I believe that is what they will do here. At odds of -186, that is the market expectation, and clearly, that is not a price I will be betting or putting forward here.
For me, this is the perfect time to play the -1 Asian Handicap. A win by any scoreline safeguards our stake, but a two or more goal victory cashes the ticket at odds of -103.
Craven Cottage is not the most fearsome place to visit, and although Fulham have a decent record on home soil, the Gunners will be too good. Even with a full-strength frontline, which they don’t have, the hosts would struggle against the strong visitor’s defense.
The link to Silva leaving makes Fulham my team to fade currently against most sides, let alone the league leaders who have only lost one of their last 17 road trips in the league, winning nine. They can add another win to that list here and more than likely by at least a two-goal margin.
EPL Best Bet: Fulham vs Arsenal – Arsenal -1 Asian Handicap at -103.
Sunderland vs. Wolves
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I always say to expect a little overreaction in the opening weeks of a new season, and I think we are getting that here. Admittedly, I have been quite negative about Wolves in this column, fading them throughout August, where they are traditionally dreadful, even into September.
They didn’t disappoint in losing their opening five league games and only collecting one point across those two months. However, in the last three games, they have shown progress and definite signs of recovery. So much so that I think the price of +205 is totally wrong.
Having monitored the markets close to kickoff, it has been interesting to see money coming for Wolves. On their last road trip, they were bet against Tottenham, played well, and should have won, only to be denied by a goal with the last kick of the game.
Vitor Pereira’s men followed that up with another good performance against a decent Brighton side, once again surrendering a lead in the closing stages.
They take on a Sunderland side here with the benefit of time on the training ground during the international break, with the Black Cats one of the biggest overachievers in the league. The newly promoted side sit ninth in the table but are down in 15th as far as expected points are concerned. Bottom of the table Wolves are only one place behind them on that metric, which indicates the two sides are a lot closer matched than the odds (and league table) would suggest.
If this was the first game of the season, Wolves would be priced around +125, which makes the odds here a massive overreaction. Sunderland have been good at home, roared on by their support, but this is not such an easy game for those fans to get up for, and the visitors are more than capable of catching them out.
EPL Best Bet: Sunderland vs Wolves– Wolves to win at +205.
