EPL Best Bets and Predictions October 4-5:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Wolves vs. Brighton
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
This weekend sees the last Premier League action before the second international break of the new season and a two-week hiatus from domestic action. As I look to sign off in style, I am revisiting a side that I have faded a few times already and will do so again here with my best bet for match day seven.
The -103 on a Brighton win looks a big price as they visit a side that has yet to win in the league and has collected just one point. For Wolves, this isn’t the opponent they would want to play to claim that first victory, having faced the Seagulls 16 times since their return to the top flight, winning only three and losing five of the last seven league meetings.
Before the season started, I held this Brighton side in high regard and thought they had a great chance to push for a top-four finish this term. They’ve thrown away winning positions against Fulham on the opening weekend, conceding an equalizer on 90+7 minutes, and against Tottenham, where they let a 2-0 lead slip to settle for a point in the end. They also missed a penalty at Everton with the game in the balance.
However, they have already beaten Manchester City and were clinical in defeating Chelsea 3-1 last weekend. If they can replicate that kind of form, they will easily beat this struggling Wolves side.
Vítor Pereira would have been pleased to see an improved performance from his side against Tottenham last weekend, but that could be more to do with the hosts, who I didn’t feel were at it at all. Wolves look set for a season of real struggle and are heading in a completely opposite direction to their visitors.
This price genuinely shocked me as I had Brighton down at around -136 to win here. I think they are that good. Even more so when you look at the host’s league form at Molineux, which has seen them lose 4-0 to Manchester City and then concede three goals in defeats to both Everton and newly promoted Leeds.
Expect more of the same against this free-scoring Brighton side, who have fired in 21 goals from their eight games across all competitions this term. The last four seasons have seen this game end 3-0, 3-2, 4-1 and 2-0 to the visitors.
EPL Best Bet: Wolves vs Brighton – Brighton to win at -103.
Aston Villa vs. Burnley
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Despite having a trip to Rotterdam on Thursday to take on Feyenoord in the Europa League ahead of this clash, I expect Aston Villa to justify odds of -182 and beat Burnley here. After falling a goal behind last weekend, Unai Emery’s side picked up their first win of the Premier League season when they beat Fulham 3-1 in what was a massive result for them.
That win saw the Villains climb out of the relegation zone. Now they must kick on to get up to where we expect them to be. Following on from the defeat of Bologna, their fans will be expecting a hat trick of wins at their Villa Park home.
In Burnley, they face opponents that have been very leaky on the road so far this season, conceding 11 goals in their three away games to date. Shipping three times in defeats to Tottenham and Manchester United before being hammered 5-1 at Manchester City last weekend.
The Clarets were the latest side to suffer at the hands of an in-form Erling Haaland at the Etihad, with the Norwegian bagging two more goals. My selection here is for a striker who hasn’t been in good form to score at any time, and that player is Ollie Watkins at -117.
The England international was brilliant in pre-season and we expected another prolific campaign from him after double figure goal returns in each of his five seasons so far at Villa Park. However, mirroring his side’s lack of confidence the 29-year-old blanked in his opening five Premier League appearances before finally hitting the back of the net last weekend.
Watkins is something of a “streaky” player and has proven that in each of the last three seasons. Regularly scoring in successive games and often stringing sequences of several games together.
When in form, he is a different player, full of confidence and scoring goals for fun. However, he’s a player best avoided when he is on a dry run.
I think this could be the start of one of those hot streaks, and I want to get on this train early. Only West Ham (14) have conceded more goals than Burnley (13), but looking at the underlying data, Scott Parker’s men have by far the worst expected goals against in the league (12.50), with Manchester United the next worst at 9.35.
This represents perfect timing with the England squads being announced for the World Cup qualifier in Latvia and the friendly international with Wales. Watkins will be desperate to be part of those ahead of next summer’s tournament and will be hungry for goals to ensure he stays in Thomas Tuchel’s thoughts.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs Burnley – Ollie Watkins to score at -117.
Arsenal vs. West Ham
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
West Ham have a decent recent record when playing Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium, winning on both of their last two visits without conceding a goal. However, they are in transition after a terrible start to the campaign, which saw Graham Potter lose his job and quickly be replaced by Nuno Espirito Santo.
On Monday, they picked up a point in his first game in charge, coming from a goal down to tie 1-1 with Everton at their new Hill Dickinson Stadium. This represents a massive step up in class, and I can see another “win-to-nil” but this time for Arsenal at odds of -127.
That is something of a go-to bet for me when the Gunners are at home to lesser opponents in the Premier League. From four games on home soil this term across all competitions, they have won three and all of them without conceding, beating Leeds 5-0, Nottingham Forest 3-0, and on Wednesday, Olympiakos 2-0 in the Champions League.
I mentioned West Ham’s strong record here in this fixture, but that contrasts massively with the games at the London Stadium. Arsenal won there 5-2 last season and 6-0 in 2023/24.
Expect Arsenal to take advantage of this West Ham side, still in the early days of adapting to Nuno’s pragmatic style. They will see plenty of the ball, no doubt have plenty of set pieces, of which they are lethal, and also showcase why they have the best defense in English soccer.
A win is priced at -500, such is the expectation that the new title favorites get the job done here. That makes the odds of them doing that without conceding huge value in my opinion.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal vs West Ham – Arsenal to win to nil at -127.
