EPL Best Bets and Predictions September 13-14:
The Premier League is back after the international break. Despite always being a tricky set of fixtures, especially with the Champions League starting next week, I am here with my three EPL best bets. My strongest selection is betting on a side looking to get their first win of the season, but in a game that must feel like a fresh start.
Newcastle vs. Wolves
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
The Alexander Isak transfer drama has hung over Newcastle like a dark cloud. They will be delighted it has finally been put to bed with the Swede getting his desired move to Liverpool. Their season starts now, and Eddie Howe, who I feel has conducted himself superbly well, can finally just concentrate on winning games of soccer.
Despite their results, the players have put in some excellent performances. They should have got at least a point against Champions Liverpool despite playing with 10 men for most of the game. They were brilliant against Aston Villa on the opening weekend and would have won that had they had a striker available to take the countless chances they created.
What they have done now is invest that Isak money in two excellent strikers. Nick Woltemade joins from Stuttgart, where he scored 17 goals last term and will be a real threat. He is joined by a familiar name to Premier League fans, Yoane Wissa, who plundered 19 goals in the competition for Brentford last term.
Their famous home support will be right behind them for this one. Let’s not forget, last season, Newcastle were one of the best teams in the EPL for covering the spread at home. When they win, they tend to win big and by two, three or four goals.
Here they face a Wolves side who, in my opinion, are in big, big trouble. I am not sure how much longer the manager will be prepared to stay at the club with them struggling so bad. He does have a history of walking away. I can see that happening again.
Last season Newcastle won here 3-0 for a second successive campaign – and won 2-1 at Molineux. With their main threat, Jorgen Strand Larsen, still a doubt for this clash, I can’t see where Wolves’ goals will come from.
At odds of -240, I clearly won’t be betting Newcastle on the Moneyline, but the -107 on the -1.25 Asian Handicap looks a great price.
EPL Best Bet: Newcastle vs Wolves – Newcastle -1.25 at -107.
Crystal Palace vs. Sunderland
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Crystal Palace have made an exceptional start to the new season. They are unbeaten in six games across all competitions despite playing some good sides like Liverpool, Chelsea and Aston Villa.
I was at the Chelsea game, which ended 0-0. That performance typified what I have been saying over the last couple of years. They are one of the most underestimated sides in the Premier League. They also, without doubt, have one of the best defensive units in English soccer.
That makes this a real tough assignment for Sunderland, whose survival hopes will be defined by what they do at home. In their one road trip this term, they travelled to fellow newly promoted side Burnley and slipped to a tepid 2-0 defeat.
Selhurst Park will be rocking and the fans expectant that their team will justify -155 favoritism. I agree that they will, but the nature of that defense, which is so hard to break down, allows us to play an angle on the win that boosts the price to +145.
The Eagles may have sold Eberechi Eze to Arsenal, but their decision not to cash in on Marc Guehi is massive. Not only does that mean their skipper is still at the club, it was probably the decision that meant top manager Oliver Glasner didn’t walk away.
Alongside Guehi are Chris Richards and Maxence Lacroix, with Dean Henderson behind them in goal. With that unit intact, I can’t see Sunderland getting on the scoresheet, so the bet is Crystal Palace to win to nil.
Since the Community Shield victory over Liverpool, which is a glorified friendly, Palace have played five competitive fixtures, kept four clean sheets and conceded just one goal. Don’t be put off by the fact Sunderland have won both their home fixtures and sit sixth in the table, they are a different animal on the road, and Palace can take advantage and keep them at arm’s length.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs Sunderland – Crystal Palace win to nil at +145.
Burnley vs. Liverpool
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
The champions Liverpool have played three and won three, so they must be cruising to defending their title, right? Well, it’s not been anywhere near as smooth sailing as those stats suggest. I don’t think they are playing that well. If I had to rate them out of 10, they would probably get a six.
They were lucky to get the win against Arsenal with that incredible Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick from 30 yards separating the two sides. They were lucky against Newcastle, throwing away a 2-0 lead against 10 men until 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha came off the bench to score a 100th-minute winner. They opened their campaign with a scratchy performance against Bournemouth.
But win them all they did, and that is a sign of true champions. So, with gears to move up into, imagine how good they will be, especially having spent well over $100 million on a proven striker during the international break.
Like all the elite sides, Liverpool have their first Champions League fixture next week with Atletico Madrid visiting Anfield on Wednesday. If you could hand-pick a league game to have prior to that clash, it is likely Burnley would be on the shortlist.
The main area of concern for Arne Slot has been his side’s defensive play, and he is right. That side of their game has been terrible. However, they looked improved against Arsenal, with the attack-minded Jeremie Frimpong injured, it made them tougher to break down, and this is a much easier fixture.
Liverpool have beaten Burnley in each of their last six visits to Turf Moor and haven’t conceded a goal there since 2018. A run of four wins to nil, 2-0, 1-0, 3-0 and 3-0. Here, the champions are priced at -305, but taking them to win to nil again boosts that to a very generous looking +120.
EPL Best Bet: Burnley vs Liverpool – Liverpool win to nil at +120.
