EPL Best Bets and Predictions September 27-29:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Everton vs. West Ham
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
The Europa League returned this week, adding another factor to consider when betting on the Premier League this weekend. My best bet comes from the very last game of match day 6, and I am very confident about this Everton side, which, although not in European action, did play in the League Cup on Tuesday.
A much-rotated starting 11 was met with much criticism from the Toffees fanbase, who clearly had an eye on going deep into the competition. However, given I have had this bet shortlisted all week, that was a great decision by David Moyes in my book!
A 2-0 defeat at Wolves ended the cup dream, but that result has no impact on this fixture against a terrible West Ham side who had already been dumped out of the competition by the same team in the previous round. Everton opened at -120 to win this clash, but at time of writing, they are -134, so the market hasn’t been put off either.
Therefore, instead of putting them forward on the moneyline, I am taking them on the -0.75 Asian Handicap at -104.
Last week, they fell to a 2-1 defeat away at city rivals Liverpool, but were by far the better side in the second half, with Player of the Month for August, Jack Grealish winning man of the match. Monday night soccer in the UK is something of a big thing. This will be the first such occasion at their impressive new stadium, which will guarantee an electric atmosphere.
To add to this, they couldn’t have better opponents to face with West Ham there for the taking. The Hammers are terrible in every aspect right now, conceding a league high 13 goals from their opening five Premier League fixtures, and simply cannot defend set pieces in their box, an area where the hosts excel.
Last week, Crystal Palace won 2-1 at the London Stadium. Still, they should have won by a wider margin after causing pandemonium in the opposition penalty area every time they got the ball in there. That game was a fifth time in the opening six fixtures across all competitions that West Ham had conceded at least two goals, shipping three to Sunderland, Wolves and Spurs, with Chelsea thrashing them 5-1.
Graham Potter knows he is on borrowed time; I can see no way he is still in charge come the other side of the international break in a couple of weeks. He looks broken, and he knows he doesn’t have the tools to deal with this Everton side full of skill and physicality.
Moyes’ side are unbeaten in three games at their new stadium so far, winning 2-0 twice and being held to a 0-0 tie by Aston Villa in their last outing there. However, a visit from the worst defense in the league is the perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways and in some style.
EPL Best Bet: Everton vs West Ham – Everton -0.75 Asian Handicap at -104.
Tottenham vs. Wolves
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
I have been very impressed with Tottenham’s start to the season, which has seen them take 10 points from their opening five league games. Thomas Frank has done a great job of hitting the ground running and has taken no time at all to implement his philosophy and playing style on his new players.
They showed great resilience to come back from 2-0 down at Brighton last week to claim a 2-2 tie and a very decent point on the road. At home, they have won three of their four fixtures across all competitions, with their defensive solidity particularly eye-catching.
This has all been done with injuries to key players, with the likes of Solanke, Maddison and Kulusevski all missing. But only Liverpool has claimed more than their 10 points from the opening five games of the new season.
In contrast to that are the opponents Wolves, who are yet to win their first point after losing their opening five league games. It’s not as if they have been unlucky. They have offered nothing by way of a threat going forward, and only West Ham have conceded more than their 12 goals.
They have played just two road games so far, but they have lost to both Bournemouth and Newcastle 1-0. To me, this is two clubs heading in completely opposite directions.
Now, I wouldn’t bet Tottenham at the -215 currently on offer. Firstly, this is Tottenham after all, and we’ve seen them slip up at this kind of price on numerous occasions before. Secondly, while studying the market every weekend, there has been a massive negative about them each match day.
So, my angle here is for Tottenham to do a template Thomas Frank professional job and win this 1-0 or 2-0 ahead of a tricky trip to Bodø/Glimt on Tuesday in the Champions League. A win to nil here boosts that price to what looks an outstanding +145 with the bet cashing in all five Spurs wins this season and in both Wolves road games.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham vs Wolves – Tottenham to win to nil at +145.
Manchester City vs. Burnley
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Manchester City are -$6 to win this clash with newly promoted Burnley with the Asian Handicap line set at -2.25, meaning you would need them to win by at least three clear goals to cash that bet. However, we can get them onside at -125 simply by backing the win to nil.
We saw a different side to Pep last week as they gave up plenty of possession, sat deep and defended a 1-0 lead that they got through a goal on the counterattack. They very nearly pulled that off as well, only conceding the equalizer in the second minute of added on time.
That was against one of their title rivals, Arsenal. Although we may see them use that tactic again this season, it will not be against a side like Burnley, who offer next to nothing in attack. City will control the game, and the Clarets will sit back and try to hit the hosts on the break.
There is a much more solid look to that backline, though with new signing Gianluigi Donnarumma a world-class operator in goal and the likes of Gvardiol and Dias looking much more comfortable knowing he is behind them. At the other end, Erling Haaland is in sensational form, and we are getting this price as he is currently rated as doubtful with a back injury. If he starts, watch this line move massively, but regardless, his managed minutes would put me off taking on that big handicap line.
The last 13 meetings across all competitions between these two sides have all been won by City by an aggregate of 46-2, with an average goals per game of 3.54 to 0.15. Burnley last recorded a win on the road in this fixture in March 1963 – a sequence of 19 games in which they have lost 16.
City have won eight of the last nine meetings “to nil” with a 90+3 goal ruining a perfect run, but I can see them making it nine from ten here against this blunt Burnley attack.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester City vs Burnley – Manchester City to win to nil at -125.
