EPL Best Bets
Let’s get straight into my EPL best bets for this week’s stellar Premier League action.
Luton vs Bournemouth
Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
Andoni Iraola has done a great job at Bournemouth, and fair play to the owners who kept the faith with a manager who went winless in his first nine games of the season. He has built a team that creates chances. The major reason for an upturn in form is having a player who can convert those chances into goals.
Usually, the top goalscorer markets are dominated by the sides that are at the head of the table chasing the title. But up there two behind Manchester City’s 18-goal Erling Haaland, alongside 16-goal Mo Salah of Liverpool, is Bournemouth’s very own Dominic Solanke.
He cashed for us last week at +130 which I thought was a great bet, and I am going to go with him again. This week against a very leaky Luton Town defense at odds of +108.
I believe that to be a disrespectful price for a man who is second in the race for the Golden Boot. When Luton faced Manchester City and Liverpool, their two main strikers were being priced up around -275 to score, which emphasizes the value we are getting.
Last week, I highlighted the fact he would have felt he has something to prove to England manager Gareth Southgate after being left out of the recent squad. He duly did that by scoring his goal while chief rivals for a seat on the plane to Germany, Ollie Watkins and Ivan Toney both blanked.
It is unlikely he will make the final squad for the European Championships, but all he can do is keep scoring. He will get a chance in the final warm-up game against Iceland. That’s his motivation alongside the Golden Boot. It helps he is on a team that does not appear to be dropping their standards.
Next up is this Luton side they only faced a couple of weeks ago in a rearranged fixture, a match that produced seven goals. Luton scored three in the first half and Bournemouth four in the second, one of which was courtesy of an individual piece of brilliance from Solanke.
The 26-year-old has scored eight goals on the road in the league this season, hitting the back of the net in six of those 14 fixtures. He can add to that against a side that has conceded 64 Premier League goals this campaign at an average of 2.06 per game.
EPL Best Bet: Dominic Solanke to score at +108.
Everton vs Burnley
Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
We have been siding with Burnley over the last few weeks. I don’t feel we or they have had the returns that their performances have deserved. They are, without question, huge value here.
What have Everton done over recent weeks to suggest they should be priced up at -152 to win this soccer match? Other than Burnley being unfashionable and having a reputation for a leaky defense, there is no reasonable explanation.
Unlike many of the sides towards the bottom of the table, Vincent Kompany’s men have been showing huge signs of improvement. Unbeaten in four games now, they have led in three of those matches, including the midweek draw with Wolves, but they have only collected six points.
This fixture pitches Sean Dyche up against his former club to add even more spice to an already white-hot clash. But there is no reason his current side should be such warm favorites. I was tempted to put the visitors up on the moneyline at +400.
The price for Everton is so far wrong, I can take Burnley +1 on the Asian Handicap at -129. This means we cash if Burnley wins or it is a draw, but we receive a full refund if they only lose by one goal!
Everybody gets carried away with Goodison Park and the atmosphere, making it a really tough place to play as a visiting side. It is not 1985. It is not like that anymore!
In the current climate, the fans are unhappy—angry at the current owners, frustrated by the team and disappointed at the style of play. The results back this argument up even further.
The Toffees have the fourth-worst home record in the Premier League. With only Burnley and Sheffield United winning fewer than their three games on home soil. No side has scored fewer than their 15 home goals.
In midweek, Everton’s winless run in the league extended to 13 matches, even though they picked up what was a very fortunate draw against Newcastle. They should have been at least 3-0 down before Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored his first goal since October by converting a penalty two minutes from time to snatch a point.
Burnley have changed things slightly at the back. They take less chances as a result, making fewer errors and restoring last season’s goalkeeper to the team.
Expect this to be tight and cagey with so much at stake. Remember, Everton are the lowest-scoring team in the league at home. Even if they do shock me and win, I can’t see them running away with it. We have so much in our favor. This really is monster value.
EPL Best Bet: Burnley +1 Asian Handicap at -129.
Manchester United vs. Liverpool
Sunday, 10:30 a.m. ET
This is always one of the biggest fixtures in the English soccer calendar. This year it is a huge fixture for Liverpool, absolutely massive! Win this one, and I can see them going on to win the remainder of their fixtures and lift their second Premier League title.
Manchester United have been monumentally inconsistent this season. But on a one-off, they can raise their game and beat any opponent. It’s something Jurgen Klopp and his team will be all too aware of following their exit here in the FA Cup last month.
Putting this in context for new followers of the Premier League, this rivalry is greater for United than with their Manchester City neighbors. It makes this vital for the home side too, especially with their manager saying recent opponents Brentford showed “more passion, desire and determination” than his team.
I stand by my previous statement that Liverpool isn’t that concerned with goal difference. They are top of the table. All they must do is win their remaining eight fixtures and they cannot be caught.
The win is all-important for the visitors and by any scoreline, so my angle here is on the goals. Quite often, the biggest games this season have been tight, even a little disappointing. As a spectacle with so much on the line, I am taking this one to follow suit.
Under 3.5 goals is -122, and that is my play. Forget the cup match, which ended 2-2 after 90 minutes, and United triumphed 4-3 after scoring in the last seconds of extra time. Do-or-die knockout soccer is always different from league fixtures.
The reverse league clash at Anfield in December ended 0-0, while this same match last season ended 2-1 to the Red Devils. On the road in the Premier League, nine of Liverpool’s 14 games have cashed Under 3.5 goals, while it is 10 of 14 for United games at Old Trafford—a combined 19 of 28 games, which is 67.8% and implied odds of -211.
A goal line of 3.5 is a big number. I would be tempted to bet it in most fixtures as we get that all-important third goal onside. So, to get that line at -122, I think it’s a brilliant price.
I see a tight, cagey match with plenty of edge and Liverpool just to shade it. Also, expect if Klopp’s men go 2-0 up, he will sit on that and look to protect his key players with more massive fixtures coming up thick and fast.
EPL Best Bet: Under 3.5 Goals at -122.
