EPL Best Bets
Let’s get right to this week’s EPL best bets.
Crystal Palace vs. Luton Town
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
As a long-standing bettor of Under 2.5 goals, I have had to adapt my style this season for my EPL best bets, with the English Premier League producing more goals per game than any of the other top European Leagues. So far, we have seen 870 goals at an average of 3.25 per fixture, with 66% of those seeing Over 2.5 goals cash.
Currently, when you check out the EPL fixture list and look down the total goals market most of the lines are set somewhere between 3.0 and 3.50. Yet this one is 2.50 at -114, and I don’t get it. I think this is a 2.75 game, possibly even 3.0.
In my opinion, the market makers must be setting this line based on the data from Roy Hodgson’s time in charge. The manager who was recently replaced and known for what can only be described as dull, negative to watch soccer.
His replacement, Oliver Glasner, demands a high-intensity style from his players, going on record to say his priority was for his team to create opportunities and score goals. In his two matches, we have seen a 3-0 home win and a 3-1 away defeat.
Here they take on a Luton side who are defensively a shambles. The Hatters are winless in six games across all competitions conceding 22 goals in the process, shipping two goals once, three on two occasions, four (in both away games) and a six against Manchester City.
Despite their defensive issues, they continue to pose a threat going forward, scoring 11 times across those games, including four at Newcastle and twice in their last two fixtures.
All of which means this line shocks me especially with a read now on the more attack-minded, adventurous style of play under Glasner. The Eagles also have their main talent for scoring and assisting goals back fit and in the side in the form of Eberechi Eze.
The win against Burnley in Glasner’s first game in charge has also lifted a bit of the pressure, with fears of relegation eased and now looking unlikely. Selhurst Park was rocking for that one, and it should be again here anticipating a goal-fest against visitors whose away games have averaged 3.75 goals across the season, with that average increasing to 5.5 over the last six fixtures.
This is too good to turn down when you consider eight of the last nine Palace league games have cashed for over 2.5 goals. While it is all of Luton’s last nine in all competitions.
EPL Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at -114.
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
This is a huge game on Sunday, with the battle for fourth in the table (a guaranteed place in next season’s Champions League) heating up. This clash sees the sides currently in fourth and fifth colliding at Villa Park.
Aston Villa have an exceptional record at home this season, winning 14 of their 19 fixtures played there in all competitions and losing just four. They have won 10 of 13 in the league and seem to have recovered from a mid-season blip.
Drawing at home to Sheffield United just before Christmas, then suffering consecutive defeats in front of their own fans to Newcastle, Chelsea, and Manchester United. A 4-2 victory over Nottingham Forest in the middle of two wins on the road has got them back to winning ways and now they can kick on.
People scoffed at their most recent win away at Luton but there were a couple of things I liked about it. Firstly, their electric start, two goals for their main man Ollie Watkins, blew the Hatters away. Then they showed tenacity to get the job done after the home side had clawed the game back to 2-2.
This is a must win for Tottenham, but I think they will fall just short. I’m not quite convinced they are back to their early season form just yet, as highlighted by the recent loss at home to Wolves.
This is only the second road game of the year for Spurs, having played the last three at home. Not facing an away game since the 2-2 draw with a struggling Everton side at the beginning of February. A result which means they have only won one of their last six on the road.
Ange Postecoglou has done a lot of good work at Spurs but hasn’t quite got them to click away from home with just five wins to their name all coming against sides in the bottom half. This is a massive test in a game where both sides will go at it. Expect plenty of goals, but I fancy Villa to just edge what will be an entertaining watch.
With Villa’s home record and current form, they look a price worth taking to me especially as we can play “tie no bet” meaning if the visitors add another draw to a growing collection we get a full refund of our stake.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa Tie No Bet at -124.
Liverpool vs. Manchester City
Sunday, 11:45 a.m. ET
In any other week that Villa vs. Spurs game would be the biggest of the weekend. But not this week! What a clash we have in store here at Anfield.
The tactics both legendary managers choose will be crucial here—not just in the outcome of this match but possibly in the title race. I think both Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola will show huge amounts of respect to each other in what could be the last time they come face-to-face.
For me, this is a must-win for Manchester City, whereas the hosts would likely settle for a draw, and as a result, I think this will be very tight. Having come so close to landing Unders last week in the Manchester derby, I must admit to a brief thought of why I am doing this again! But here I am—I must go in again in this match.
On Thursday Liverpool travelled to Prague for a Europa League tie and given the number of injuries had to go with a strong squad. Mo Salah was on the bench with Nunez and Diaz both starting.
The good thing is that the game can be used as a warm-up for those players just coming back from injury, so they don’t go into this battle cold. In that respect, unusually, I see this midweek European fixture as a positive rather than a negative.
Although Manchester City played in the Champions League on Wednesday night, they heavily rotated their squad, resting the likes of Foden and De Bruyne. However, they still cruised through by a 6-2 aggregate scoreline.
Pep has his side doing what they do every year and are currently 20 games unbeaten winning 18. Into top gear foot on the gas to the floor.
However, Liverpool at Anfield are exceptional, undefeated in 21 games at home across all competitions this term, winning 19. They have lost just one of their last 55 league games on home soil.
Despite Arsenal challenging hard, these two sides are still number 1 and 2 in England. When that happens, going toe-to-toe with the title on the line, I think goal lines of around 3.0-3.5 are a little disrespectful to what is at stake, the respect on show, and the fact that two of the best defenses are in action, too. As a result, I am happy to take Under 3 goals at +108.
Look at Manchester City against the big teams. They won 1-0 against Tottenham and Arsenal while losing by the same score to Aston Villa with a 1-1 draw in the reverse of this fixture. Liverpool came out on top by that 1-0 scoreline here last season.
I can’t see four or more goals here. If there are three, we get a full refund but as I have just shown with so many Under 2.5 goals bets cashing in these big games this line looks a value play.
EPL Best Bet: Under 3 Asian Total at -102.
