EPL Bets and Predictions December 3-5:
Let’s take a look at the midweek’s EPL picks:
Southampton vs. Chelsea
Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ET
We have a bonus midweek round of Premier League fixtures, and my best bet comes in Wednesday’s game at St Mary’s.
Southampton have been unlucky in recent games, but they keep finding ways to drop points, even if it was a dodgy VAR decision that cost them a couple on Friday at Brighton. They play some nice stuff but make plenty of mistakes like Burnley’s last season. They will get the same outcome—relegation back to the Championship.
They got away with those mistakes at the lower level last season. To a certain extent, they still do when playing the mid-ranking teams. The elite are not so forgiving. Manchester United blitzed them 3-0 here earlier in the season, and they conceded three times in defeat to Liverpool in their last home game. Even Leicester scored three here, and the Saints have only kept one clean sheet so far in this campaign.
Their opponents, Chelsea, are one of those elite sides I mentioned. I rank them the third-best side in the EPL right now, only behind Liverpool and Arsenal.
Manager Enzo Maresca has done a stunning job in taking a massive squad of players packed with individual talent and molding them into a successful team. I thought it was a big mistake to let Mauricio Pochettino go, but I must admit, it looks like I was wrong.
The Blues are officially third in the table but have exactly the same record as Arsenal in second. At the weekend, they brushed aside Aston Villa, a team that finished fourth last term and are doing well in the Champions League.
Once again, Cole Palmer was outstanding, providing an assist for the second goal and completing the scoring with a stunning strike. After a difficult first season Nicolas Jackson is showing what an excellent striker he is and consistently adding to his goals tally.
They are now unbeaten in six games across all competitions, with only one league defeat in 12. With the games coming thick and fast at this time of year, the sides with big squads have a real advantage, and Chelsea arguably have the strongest in the Premier League.
Maresca has so many attacking options. The key thing for him is that the players coming off the bench are looking to impress him to force their way into the starting eleven. In contrast, rock-bottom Southampton are limited to the changes they can make, are the joint lowest scorers, and only two sides have conceded more than their 25 goals.
There is a lot of money coming for Chelsea, but we can still take them on the -1.25 Asian Handicap. We need a win by two or more goals to fully cash the ticket, but a single-goal margin means we would only lose half our stake. Expect the visitors to flex their muscles here, though, and keep themselves in an unexpected title race.
EPL Pick: Southampton vs Chelsea – Chelsea -1.25 Asian Handicap at -112.
Arsenal vs. Manchester United
Wednesday, 3:15 p.m. ET
I am playing the -1.25 Asian Handicap for my next bet as well, In what looks like a cracking game at the Emirates.
Arsenal was so good on Saturday at West Ham, roaring into a 4-0 lead in little over 30 minutes to put the game to bed. They let the Hammers back in by conceding twice, but they scored a fifth on the stroke of halftime to secure the win.
The Gunners had a bad spell a few weeks ago where they suffered a series of injuries to key players, losing ground on Liverpool. To me, it feels the manager has just now sent them out to play with freedom. They are close to the point where they need to win every game, and it seems that the shackles are off. If they are going to go down, they are going down swinging.
Consequently, their last three performances are the best I have seen them play in the Mikel Arteta era, and probably as good as we have seen since the peak days of Arsenal Wenger. The return of Martin Odegaard has inspired the team. He gives them so much balance and brings out the best in all around him, so it’s no surprise they have scored 13 goals in the last three games with him back in the team.
I also feel this team is better in the role of hunter rather than the hunted. If they are being chased, there is an element of caution to their play that is not there when they know they need to go for it.
This is a huge match for them against a rejuvenated Manchester United, but after this, they have a series of very winnable fixtures that could put real pressure on leaders Liverpool.
Another reason I like them for this match is the possible absentees for United. Key defender Lisandro Martinez is out suspended, as is Kobbie Mainoo and Bruno Fernandes, who has been reborn under Ruben Amorim, is a major doubt with the injury that forced him off at the weekend.
Even the new manager himself says we shouldn’t get too carried away by his side just yet. It’s early days, and there will be a lot of ups and downs.
Yes, they beat a very poor Everton side and got past Bodø/Glimt in the Europa League in midweek, but both those games were at home. Amorim’s first league game in charge was at Ipswich, where he needed his goalkeeper to prevent defeat at the newly promoted side, and this represents a massive step up in class.
Manchester United are winless in six away games, not tasting success since September, which remains their only road win of the season. That came against rock-bottom Southampton, who missed a penalty at 0-0.
Arsenal are playing on a different level currently and I think they win this fairly comfortably.
EPL Pick: Arsenal vs Manchester United – Arsenal -1.25 Asian Handicap at +102.
Ipswich vs. Crystal Palace
Tuesday, 2:30 p.m. ET
I’m ending my best bets from the EPL midweek slate with my favorite Under 2.5 goals play, and it comes from the huge clash at the bottom of the table.
Both these sides have only won once this season and against the same side, Tottenham. The pair are tied on nine points, with Ipswich second from bottom and Palace two places higher, crucially one above the drop line, illustrating just how tight it is down there.
These are the types of games where sides go into them thinking they must not lose. Don’t lose any ground to a rival. They are called “six-pointers” for a reason.
When the traders find it so tough to split the teams as they do here, I always advise it is wise to back the draw. In this case, a 0-0 or 1-1 cashes the Unders for us, and I can’t see it being a wild end-to-end shoot-out to bring 2-2, 3-3 or higher into play.
A lot of shrewd bettors have been with Ipswich all season and many still think they will survive, but they need to start winning games to prove that to be correct. At home, they are very low scoring, with five of their six games cashing Unders and that includes games against Liverpool, Aston Villa and Manchester United.
Visitors Crystal Palace seem more comfortable on the road, where they can counterattack teams. They will be helped with the return from injury of key players, particularly their most creative one Eberechi Eze.
What they haven’t got is a clinical goalscorer, which was highlighted over the weekend. They battered Newcastle but needed a strike in added-on time from their right back to grab a point, which saw a fifth successive home game go Under 2.5 goals.
I feel these two sides will cancel each other out. If either take the lead, they will try and see the game out, while the longer it stays 0-0, the more they will settle for a point apiece and move on.
EPL Pick: Ipswich vs Crystal Palace – Under 2.5 goals at -124.
