EPL Bets and Predictions November 30-December 1:
Let’s take a look at this week’s EPL picks:
Manchester United vs. Everton
Sunday, 8:30 a.m. ET
My best bet this week comes from my favorite market, Under 2.5 goals.
Rúben Amorim’s reign as Manchester United manager began on Sunday with a 1-1 draw at newly promoted Ipswich Town. The Red Devils made the perfect start to life under their new manager, taking just 81 seconds to score the first goal of the new era. But that’s as good as it got, and they went on to look as disjointed in attack as they have done over the last couple of years.
In fact, United needed some great saves from André Onana to leave Portman Road with a point. It has flown a little under the radar that with five, Onana is the goalkeeper who has kept the most clean sheets in the EPL this season.
Amorim’s tactical template at Sporting, which made him such hot property, involved playing with three central defenders. He is expected to look to implement that in England, which should lead to a focus on this United side being tighter defensively rather than showing more attacking flair.
Only three teams have scored fewer goals than United’s 13: the bottom two Southampton (9) and Crystal Palace (10), plus their opponents on Sunday, Everton (10), and that isn’t expected to drastically change.
At the start of the season, Everton’s first four games had a flurry of goals – all cashing for Over 2.5 goals bettors. Since then, they have returned to type, and I mentioned last week Sean Dyche has his side boring their way to safety once again. They absolutely proved my point last weekend with a 0-0 draw at home to Brentford, who played more than half of the game with 10 men after Christian Norgaard’s 41st-minute red card.
The Toffees’ recent performances highlighted what a defensively pragmatic outfit they are, with their last eight league games producing just 10 goals – an average of 1.25 per match. Crucially, seven of those eight matches cashed for Under 2.5 goals bettors.
All four road games across that sequence have stayed Under 2.5 goals, reflecting a team more concerned with preventing goals than scoring them. The head-to-head history between these teams at Old Trafford further supports the Under bet. Manchester United has won the last two meetings 2-0, and four of the last five encounters have cashed on Unders.
Everton’s attacking threat looks minimal. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a shadow of the striker he once was. Dwight McNeil requires significant support, and summer signing Iliman Ndiaye has just two Premier League goals to his name, which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise given he only scored three in 30 Ligue 1 appearances for Marseille last season.
The plus money on offer just has to be snapped up, in my opinion.
EPL Pick: Manchester United vs Everton – Under 2.5 goals at +123.
Nottingham Forest vs. Ipswich Town
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I am dipping back into the Under 2.5 goals market for my next bet as well, with so many factors pointing to a low-scoring affair at the City Ground this Saturday.
My prediction Nottingham Forest would start sliding down the table after massively overachieving in the opening weeks of the season is looking spot on. Since then, they have lost convincingly at home to Newcastle and at Arsenal last weekend, where they did not lay a glove on the Gunners.
Set up in a low block, Forest tried to soak up pressure and counterattack but conceded early and failed to have a shot on target. The key thing for me was an angry Nuno Espirito Santo’s reaction afterward. He admitted his team’s performance was not good and then went on to say they should be worried after conceding three goals in their last two games, adding they must put that right quickly.
For me, that means they will be focusing on defense, defense and more defense this week. I’ve mentioned how sides that get beat heavily do all they can to stop that from happening again the following week. I put Forest in that category right now.
Forest’s goal-scoring relies heavily on Chris Wood, who has netted eight of their 15 league goals. After spending the international break in New Zealand, he started on the bench last week, and boy, how they missed him. He is a big unit, and those kind of trips take some getting over.
Ipswich will present an easier task to defend against than Arsenal, with Nuno knowing if they were to lose here, it would be a massive blow and he would suddenly be under big pressure. Only the bottom two and Everton have scored fewer than Ipswich this season, but they look to be getting their act together at the back.
After conceding that opening goal, they hardly allowed United another chance and could frustrate Forest here, too. Three of their last five have cashed Unders, and they drew 0-0 and 1-1 at Brighton and Southampton. Most of their other road games have been at attacking sides, Man City, Brentford and Tottenham, so it is no real surprise there were goals there.
Forest’s opening four home games were all Under 2.5 goals, and we should see a revert to type scoreline here.
EPL Pick: Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich Town – Under 2.5 goals at -105.
Brentford vs. Leicester City
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Brentford finally picked up their first point on the road this season with a turgid 0-0 draw at Everton last weekend. They were playing with 10 men for the entire second half, so in truth, it wasn’t a bad result.
It’s a different story at home, however, where their performances have been nothing short of extraordinary. They’ve accumulated 16 points from a possible 18, a point more than runaway league leaders Liverpool has gained, two more than Arsenal and three more than champions Man City.
Next up is Leicester, the final of the three EPL promoted clubs to visit the Brentford Community Stadium this term. Southampton were soundly beaten 3-1, while Ipswich finally went down 4-3.
The Foxes were woeful last weekend in losing 2-1 at home to Chelsea, so bad in fact that the owners saw fit to sack manager Steve Cooper. Until a last-minute penalty, Leicester had managed just three shots, none of which were on target — a statistic highlighting their lack of creativity or cutting-edge.
Leicester have lost three of their last four in the league and only picked up points in two of their last five, but in both games, the opposition had a player sent off. Both those fixtures were also against the other two promoted sides.
Teams at the bottom like Wolves and Ipswich are picking up points, and the pressure is on. At the time of writing, there has been no announcement of Cooper’s replacement, although Ruud van Nistelrooy is a very strong favorite. If a new face comes in now, they will have little time to impact change. If the current coaching staff are still in charge on match day, expect more of the same.
Injuries have decimated Leicester’s attacking options, and as a result, they look unable to go toe-to-toe with a Brentford side that have also plundered a league-high 18 goals at home. The -0.75 Asian Handicap means a Brentford win by two or more goals, which results in a full win with a one-goal Brentford victory returning a half-win. This bet has only failed to turn a profit in one of Brentford’s six home games in the current campaign.
EPL Pick: Brentford vs Leicester City – Brentford -0.75 Asian Handicap at -116.
