EPL Predictions and Bets November 9-10:
Let’s take a look at this week’s EPL Predictions:
Wolves vs. Southampton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
My best bet this week comes in another big clash at the bottom of the table. After last week’s push on Wolves, I’m sticking with them again, but this week it is a moneyline play as they host the side directly above them in the league.
A win for Saints last weekend got them off the bottom of the table at the expense of Gary O’Neil’s side, who could only draw with Crystal Palace. But I am convinced Wolves are soon going to click, and this could be the week.
I have watched them closely over the last few games to see if there is life in them, and the answer is most definitely yes. The men from Molineux look like an improving side who are exciting to watch going forward and have several match winners.
In Matheus Cunha, they have a real quality player. Although last weekend, Cunha was unable to add to his four goals so far this season, he did provide his first assist by setting up Jorgen Strand Larsen with a beautiful pass. Larsen has three goals in his last four appearances and looks the type to score a decent number by the end of the campaign.
There are others too, such as Joao Gomes, who was also on the scoresheet against Palace. It is clear to see having several game changes has breathed belief into a side that find themselves bottom more due to a brutal opening run of fixtures as much as anything else.
They were so unlucky not to take any points from that recent clash with Manchester City, where they were written off by everyone. Hard-fought draws against Brighton and Palace have shown they have character and are playing for their under-pressure manager.
After opposing Southampton last weekend, I saw nothing changing my opinion of them. Everton hit the bar twice, less than a minute after the second time Saints scored what turned out to be the winning goal of the game after a late Toffees strike was ruled out by VAR.
The wild celebrations at St. Mary’s were more in keeping with a side that had just qualified for the Champions League rather than winning their first game of the season at the 10th attempt. The fans know they aren’t going to get too many more Premier League wins to cheer.
Russell Martin’s side created just 0.54 xG compared to their opponents’ 1.79, illustrating that it was a fortunate win. That overperformance is not sustainable, and Wolves are a side that score goals.
Gary O’Neil has seen his side score in each of the last 11 fixtures across all competitions, averaging 1.64 goals per game. That run included fixtures against top-five sides Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Aston Villa. All teams that are levels above Southampton.
This could become a shootout, as both defenses are weak. If that is the case, Wolves win hands down and extend the visitors’ road record this season to played six, lost six.
EPL Prediction: Wolves vs. Southampton – Wolves Moneyline at -104.
Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle
Sunday, 09:00 a.m. ET
It wouldn’t have been a massive surprise to see these two sides occupying 3rd and 11th places in the table going into this fixture on match day 11. What is a shock is that it is Forest who find themselves in a Champions League qualifying spot as we head into the last international break of the year.
That’s reflected on the moneyline, where the home side are priced up at +180 with Newcastle marginal favorites at +160. In this fixture last season, Forest were +244 and Eddie Howe’s men were +112. Time will tell if that is a true price or if the market has overreacted to them, as they take on a Newcastle side that have been hit or miss this season, especially on the road.
To be honest, I am not so sure, but one thing I am certain about is the value in the Under 2.5 goals line here at -114.
What is also without doubt is that Forest have recruited superbly, and the new additions have gelled quickly under great management from Nuno EspÃrito Santo. He has them incredibly welldrilled defensively with the exceptional centerback pairing of Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo up there as one of the best in the division.
Newcastle are also a very well-coached side with a strong, organized defense backed up by a top goalkeeper. Eddie Howe delivered a masterclass against Arsenal last week and really did a number on Mikel Arteta. His tactics were spot on. They stopped the Gunners playing, got the goal, and shut up shop to secure the 1-0 win.
Six of Newcastle’s last seven matches have been Under 2.5 goals. While Forest saw their first Over 2.5 goals home game last week when they put three past a poor West Ham side who played the entire second half with 10 men. The five prior to that had all cashed Under.
What the market does show is that these two sides are very evenly matched, and it would not surprise me to see those odds even closer come kickoff. In that eventuality, I always think it brings the tie and Unders very much as the best angles to play.
We also have a little bit of a recent form guide to assist us as well. These two sides met here in the League Cup as recently as August in a game that ended in a 1-1 tie.
Two good managers, two good defensive units, two good teams that will respect the other meeting at a venue that is a really tough place to go for anyone in the Premier League. Equally, this is a big test for Nottingham Forest to show they are planning on hanging around nearer the top than the bottom of the table. As a result, expect a tight and cagey battle with Under 2.5 goals.
EPL Prediction: Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle – Under 2.5 goals at -114.
Brentford vs. Bournemouth
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
For the final bet of the week, you may be surprised to hear I am looking for goals. The location is Brentford as they take on Bournemouth, and the bet is over 3 Asian total at -107.
The Brentford Community Stadium is the place to go to be entertained this season with 24 goals scored across their opening five league games there. That is five more than nearest rivals Tottenham, who share top home-soil scoring honors, as both sides have hit the back of the net 15 times at home so far.
Despite coming very close on Monday only to concede two goals in added-on time, Thomas Frank is yet to see his side keep a clean sheet this season. Both teams have scored in all five home games, with this line only losing once, winning three times with one push.
The last two fixtures here were crazy, with Brentford winning 5-3 against Wolves and 4-3 versus Ipswich. This promises to be more of the same.
Bournemouth’s last three matches couldn’t have been tougher. Yet they picked up seven points from a possible nine after games against Aston Villa, Arsenal and Manchester City—a staggering return and one which means they will travel to London full of confidence.
In Antoine Semenyo, they have one of the most in-form attackers in the league. Big-money signing Evanilson has back-to-back goals as he strives to prove he can fill the void left by Dominic Solanke. Both will be confident of adding to their tally against the hosts, who concede plenty of shots.
The same can be said of Bees duo Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa who love playing at home. Because of this, the price on both teams to score is -215 – but if that happens as we all expect, you are well on your way to at least a push on that Asian total of 3.0.
The final piece of this jigsaw is that Brentford love to start fast. The first half of their home games have seen an incredible 13 goals so far, with at least one in all. An early goal immediately opens any contest and massively increases the chances of a high total come the final whistle.
This ended 2-2 last season, and I can see a similar outcome again.
EPL Prediction: Brentford vs Bournemouth – Over 3 Asian total at -107.
