EPL Bets and Predictions October 19-21:
Let’s look at this week’s EPL bets and predictions.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
My best bet of the weekend is in the biggest fixture of the weekend. Liverpool vs. Chelsea is a massive game for both clubs and the two new managers in charge of them.
In a season where everyone expected it to be a two-horse race for the title, the first seven games have seen both these sides give the impression they could be involved. This clash will tell us plenty about their abilities to challenge Manchester City and Arsenal and a fair bit about the two men in charge.
In the Blue corner, Enzo Maresca faces the biggest match of his brief managerial career. In the Red, Arne Slot looks to win the toughest league fixture of his first campaign in England and stay at the top of the division.
There will be plenty of hype and a big build-up as the prime-time weekend game here in the UK. But these games rarely deliver on the promise and end up slightly disappointing, especially if you are looking for goals. But that’s not disappointing, as I am playing Under 3.5 goals at a monster price of -124.
This fixture has real rivalry attached to it, and neither set of fans like the other. There have been some big meetings in recent years; they have also met in several finals. Generally they are keenly fought, tight encounters. So much so that five of the last seven meetings in all competitions have ended 0-0!
All those games were in the Jurgen Klopp era, a manager known for his full-throttle attacking soccer. This Liverpool side under Arne Slot is the most unattractive version we have seen in a decade.
Whichever way I look at this match, I can’t understand why the line is set at 3.5 goals and at such an attractive price.
Four of Liverpool’s five home games across all competitions under Slot have cashed Under 3.5 goals, and all seven of his Premier League games in charge at Anfield have cashed Under 3.5 goals. He is a patient manager who enjoys seeing his teams in control, happy to win 2-0 rather than lose points in chasing another goal.
Chelsea has a 100% road record this season, and although the crazy game at Wolves sticks in people’s memory, their other two wins have been by 1-0 and 3-0. But Wolves have the worst defense in the league, which is a completely different task than the one ahead of them here.
Yes, Chelsea have scored 16 league goals this term, but ten of those have come in two chaotic fixtures against sides for who defending is an afterthought. Liverpool has the best defense in the league, conceding just two goals.
Of the last 31 meetings between these two sides, this bet has cashed in 27 of them. It looks like incredible value for that run to be extended this weekend.
EPL Bet: Liverpool vs. Chelsea – Under 3.5 goals at -124.
Newcastle vs. Brighton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Newcastle have flown a little under the radar at the start of this season and are off to one of their best starts in many years. The performances haven’t been great, but they have coped with injuries to key players, changed formation and style and produced some good results.
Two of those players are their recognized strikers Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson, but there is a strong chance both could be fit to play some part in this weekend’s game. That would be a massive boost against a Brighton side that can’t stop conceding goals.
The Seagulls have allowed 10 goals in their last four games, with at least two in each of them. That will be a massive concern to Fabian Hürzeler. He knows his side was left off the hook by Spurs in the last game, having gone in at halftime down 2-0.
For me, the home side, unbeaten at St James Park this season across four games in all competitions, is being very underrated. They have only lost once on home soil in 2024, that defeat coming to Manchester City in January 12 games ago, and have won seven of the last 10.
Another boost for them comes with England naming Thomas Tuchel as their new head coach this week, ending rumors Eddie Howe would be offered the job. If it wasn’t before, then his clear focus now will be getting Newcastle back in the top four.
I am still not convinced by Brighton. Yes, they are the data darlings, easy on the eye and always looking to attack, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you win soccer matches. Especially when you concede at the rate they are, and it seems with no indication of that changing soon.
This is a great price, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Newcastle go off at minus money, especially if one of Isak or Wilson can make the starting lineup.
EPL Bet: Newcastle vs Brighton – Newcastle Moneyline at +100.
Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace
Monday, 03:00 p.m. ET
The UK version of Monday Night Football takes us to the City Ground in Nottingham—a venue that usually guarantees an electric atmosphere and, since their return to the Premier League, has guaranteed Forest points.
That has not been the case this season, with Nuno Espírito Santo still waiting for his side to win their first game on home soil. It was incredible for a team that was basically saved from relegation by their strong record in front of their fans.
Forest have drawn with Bournemouth and Wolves, both 1-1, and lost 1-0 to Fulham. Remarkably, they are unbeaten on the road and are not just the only side to keep a clean sheet against Liverpool but the sole team to take points off them.
In eight matches across all competitions this term, Nuno has seen his men draw five. The same outcome has happened in the last three meetings with Crystal Palace, with 0-0 and 1-1 stalemates last term.
Although they don’t score many, Forest has hit the back of the net in every game this season, barring that defeat to Fulham. That is where a key piece of team news comes into play. It was leaked in a social media video this week that their captain Morgan Gibbs-White was balancing on crutches with a protective boot over his right foot.
It seems likely the England international will miss out on this fixture. He is such a vital part of this side his absence will be missed incredibly. The only game he has missed so far? You guessed it, Fulham.
Palace are really struggling. They are in the relegation zone, still searching for their first win. They have scored just five goals. Only Southampton have less.
The Eagles are really missing the departed Michael Olise, and without him, Eberechi Eze has yet to hit form. The hosts are a negative side at the best of times, so if they are missing their talisman, expect an even more defensively-minded setup from their safety-first manager. On that basis, it is hard to see this current version of Crystal Palace being able to break them down.
It would not surprise me in the slightest to see this end 0-0, which could be worth some pizza money at +900. But for my official play, it is Under 2.5 goals, which looks bulletproof.
EPL Bet: Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace – Under 2.5 goals at -132.
