EPL Best Bets:
Welcome to Match Week 1 of the English Premier League! Let’s take a look at our first EPL best bets of the season.
Arsenal vs. Wolves
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Here we go again, the start of a new Premier League season, and it promises to be fascinating. Manchester City are the marginal favorites at +150 to win their fifth successive title, but their performance in the courtroom will be as important as on the pitch, with 115 charges of alleged financial irregularities hanging over them.
If found guilty, they are due a points deduction, and that has been factored into their price and, as a result, that of their nearest rivals, too. Arsenal are +185 to win their first title in 20 years, and I think they can do it even if Manchester City are found not guilty or don’t lose points this term.
Mikel Arteta has steadily improved his squad over the last two or three years, and if they had a proven goalscorer, then I would have them as the market leader. I am also taking them to get off to the perfect start in the opening round of fixtures.
The Gunners are the longest odds to win this weekend at a best price of -455. You won’t be surprised to learn I am not tipping that to you, so I have had to get a little creative to give us a more palatable price.
Early stages of the season are to be treated with caution until we get a read on the teams but even so this is my strongest play of the weekend. It is Arsenal to win to nil at -110. If your book doesn’t offer that specific market, then it is the same as playing Arsenal to win and BTTS no or under 0.5 Wolves goals.
Arsenal had the best defensive record last season conceding only 29 league goals and keeping the most clean sheets with 18. Instead of sitting back and admiring that record, Mikel Arteta has strengthened his back line further.
Highly rated Riccardo Calafiori has been added after a breakout season with Bologna. Now fit again after missing all last season with an ACL injury, Jurrien Timber will feel like a new signing. Goalkeeper David Raya has made his loan switch from Brentford permanent to add further stability.
Arsenal won-to-nil 17 times in the Premier League last season, which was more than any other club. They have also beaten Wolves in each of the last six meetings, with four of those victories coming “to-nil.”
It’s been a tough close season for Gary O’Neil who has seen his best player, Neto, sold to Chelsea and his captain Max Kilman depart to West Ham in exchange for $51 million. Incomings haven’t been of sufficient quality or quantity, and the manager is far from happy.
Arsenal can take advantage of that discontent and get their title challenge off to a winning start while keeping it clean at the back.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal to win to nil at -110.
Newcastle vs. Southampton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Newcastle is another side who are long odds to get the job done at home this weekend—a best price of -278 to take care of newly promoted Southampton.
The Toon are one of the strongest sides on home soil in the Premier League. In fact, only the top three won more points from home games than them last term. They only lost three times all campaign, defeats to Manchester City and Liverpool being no disgrace, but the other was a shock against Nottingham Forest.
Eddie Howe saw his side dominate the teams that finished in the bottom half of the table other than the defeat to Forest, winning six and drawing three.
My first instinct here was to take Newcastle Over 1.5 team goals, but the price is incredibly -360. It’s probably understandable when you look at how they ended last season at St. James Park. Undefeated in eight matches scoring 24 goals in the process at an average of exactly three per game.
The main reason for that is their striker, Alexander Isak. It usually takes time to acclimatize to the Premier League, but he looks like he has been playing in it for years. He scored 11 goals in his last 12 league appearances and 10 in his last eight starts on home soil.
All the stats and odds point towards Newcastle scoring at least two goals, yet you can back their main man Isak to score at least one of them at odds of -120, which I think is an incredible value. If this was Haaland at the Etihad or Salah at Anfield, their odds would be around -375.
Isak scored 21 goals for a Newcastle side plagued by injuries and with the distraction of Champions League soccer last season. They don’t have that this year, and the Swedish international wasn’t involved in the European Championship this summer as his nation didn’t qualify.
All that points to Isak being rested, recharged and ready to go from the first whistle. He scored in four of Newcastle’s seven pre-season fixtures, so he is ready to hit the ground running against the Saints, who I expect to struggle this season. They take risks at the back, and Isak can punish them.
EPL Best Bet: Alexander Isak to score at -120.
Leicester vs. Tottenham
Monday, 03:00 p.m. ET
I am really looking forward to the final game of Match Day 1, and it promises to be an entertaining watch. Well, it’s an Ange Postecoglou side, so of course it will be. We learned that much for sure from his first season in the Premier League.
Tottenham are my tip to break into the top four this season under a brilliant manager who I am sure learned a lot from his maiden campaign. They were exceptional in the opening 10 games, and as such, the impact people were talking about them as title challengers.
Things fell away a little bit towards the end of the season. It didn’t help the Aussie that he had to rotate his striking options. He didn’t have a senior specialist striker after the sale of Harry Kane last summer. That issue has now been resolved with the club-record purchase of Dominic Solanke for around $80 million.
The ex-Bournemouth man can hold the ball up, link play excellently and score goals. He will bring the best out of the numerous quality teammates around him.
Spurs were the entertainers on the road last season. Eleven of their 19 games away from home saw both teams score, 14 featured three or more goals with a league high 30 of 38 (79%) overall. In fact, more than half their road games saw Over 3.5 goals. Incredible numbers and that won’t change as illustrated by the traders’ taking no chances with the odds and making any goals play unbackable.
Because I do want to get this vibrant Spurs team onside against the newly promoted Foxes, my tactic here is to sneak on the blindside. While everyone is looking at the shiny new toy (Solanke), I’m going to give some attention to the tried and tested, reliable one: Son Heung-min.
Son formed an incredible, prolific partnership with Kane. With Solanke taking that role through the middle, the South Korean can go back to where he is best, playing off the left side.
With the Asian Cup taking place in the middle of the last Premier League season, Son missed a few games but still hit 17 goals. That is the same number he hit the year before he went on to win the Golden Boot when he bagged 23.
Three goals in his last four pre-season games tells me he is ready to hit the ground running. This game screams goals, and I can see the visitors contributing at least three, which if I am right, backing the penalty-taking captain to get at least one at plus money looks great value.
EPL Best Bet: Son Heung-min to score at +130.
