EPL Best Bets and Predictions December 21-22:
Let’s take a look at the weekend’s EPL best bets:
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
I was at the Emirates on Wednesday for the League Cup meeting between these two sides in what turned out to be a game of two halves. Crystal Palace put out a strong side making just one change from the eleven that beat Brighton 3-1 last weekend – and that was enforced because of suspension. Arsenal kicked off with just three of the players that started their last game against Everton.
The Eagles took an early lead and kept the home side at arm’s length for much of the first half. As soon as Mikel Arteta brought on his key players, there was only one team in it, with the Gunners running out 3-2 winners. I am taking them here on a -1 Asian Handicap as my best bet. The result flattered Palace with a late consolation and the host’s backup players missing several big opportunities to score.
Oliver Glasner took a chance by going full strength but now must ask those same players to go again versus an opponent that had the luxury of resting everyone to some degree. Moreover, he knows that when the Gunners strengthened their team, his men couldn’t get near them.
That performance will add more confidence to an Arsenal side that have a great recent record against Palace. The win on Tuesday was a fifth successive victory with an aggregate score of 15-3, and the Gunners have won on their last two visits to Selhurst Park without conceding a goal.
Arsenal are six points behind Liverpool having played a game more, so they really cannot afford to drop many more points. A win here puts pressure on both sides above them in the table, with the Reds and Chelsea not playing until Sunday. I expect Arsenal to cover the handicap here, but remember if they only win by a single goal, we get a full refund of our stake.
I am putting my faith in an Arsenal side that love London derbies. They are unbeaten in ten such fixtures this year, winning eight and scoring 32 goals while only conceding nine.
EPL Pick: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal – Arsenal -1 Asian Handicap at -107.
Leicester vs. Wolves
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
This game screams goals, and I have to put it forward as my second bet. This scoreline could be anything!
Neither side can defend, and I am so confident of goals that I am playing the over 3 Asian Total at +107. Four goals cashes this ticket, but if there are only three, then we do get a full refund of our stake.
Ruud van Nistelrooy was appointed new Leicester manager on November 29th. In the four games since, there have been 17 scored at an average of 4.25, with all cashing the over 3 Asian Total. It is a continuation of what we saw during his four-game interim spell in charge of Manchester United, which produced 14 goals – ironically, 10 of which came in two games against Leicester.
His sides are formed in a similar mold to how he played. He sets them up to deliver front-foot attacking soccer without too much care for the defensive side of the game.
Visitors Wolves are in disarray. Their terrible results finally saw Gary O’Neil sacked, with Vitor Pereira confirmed as his replacement on Thursday after leaving Saudi side Al-Shabab.
For his first game in charge, the 56-year-old must do without the suspended Rayan Aït-Nouri and likely player of the season Matheus Cunha. The club’s top-scorer faces a misconduct charge following a post-match melee after the 2-1 defeat to Ipswich last weekend.
Wolves have conceded a league-high 40 goals so far this season, a tally helped by scoring three own goals and giving away five penalties. The most in each category by any club in the EPL during the current campaign.
Leicester have scored in all eight home league games this season but have kept only one clean sheet across all venues. The Foxes also never give up and have scored three goals after the 85th minute since van Nistelrooy joined the club.
The result could be absolutely anything, so for me, this one is all about the goals.
EPL Pick: Leicester vs Wolves – Over 3 Asian Total at +107.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
The curious case of Manchester City is probably the most fascinating development of any team since I began my career in Premier League betting. I have seen teams gradually fade or suffer after the departure of a legendary manager, but I have never seen a team have this kind of problem mid-season.
Their downward spiral is incredible, and I think it continues. There is something fundamentally wrong at the club, not caused by player injury, although that has not helped, but deeper rooted.
The intriguing question is, where do you place Manchester City now? A few weeks ago, they would have been clear as the best club side in Europe. Now, you could ask the best 10 bettors in the world, and they would all place them differently.
I recently spoke to a highly respected professional sports bettor, and he described opposing Manchester City as the gift that keeps on giving. I totally agree, and that is exactly what I am doing here. For my final play of the week, I am taking Aston Villa to win at +230.
Last weekend’s defeat to Manchester United wasn’t just a terrible result. It was a truly awful performance. Again. The once smooth, slick passing that is synonymous with a Pep side is a distant memory, and these players now can’t string two passes together. Erling Haaland looks a shadow of his former self.
This team is not playing well and losing. They are simply playing really, really badly. They look more like a relegation side and a group of players that have given up. They have lost eight of their last 11 games across all competitions, conceding multiple goals in 10 of them.
Just as Amad Diallo scored the winning goal last weekend, you could bet Villa at +260. I am stunned that price has only moved to +230. I don’t think it has adjusted enough. It is a price I must take!
EPL Pick: Aston Villa vs Manchester City – Aston Villa to win at +230.
