Best bets for this weekend’s EPL matches:
Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Last week, I put up Manchester City on a -2 Asian Handicap away at Luton, and I am doing exactly the same thing here in what looks like an interesting match at home to Crystal Palace. The bet against the Hatters didn’t cash, but I’m not quite sure how.
The home side landed the classic sucker punch to go ahead on the stroke of halftime after hardly having a kick in the opening 45 minutes. City then scored two goals in three minutes to take the lead with half an hour remaining, and it looked a case of how many they would win by. After having a third goal disallowed, Pep’s men continued to dominate but couldn’t find a way past a stubborn home defense.
To be fair to Luton, they have proven themselves to be tough to break down at their own ground. Just ask Liverpool and Arsenal. So, a 2-1 win without goal-machine Erling Haaland isn’t the worst result.
The price this week of -110 is better than last week, yet the Champions are at home. For me, a trip to Kenilworth Road is arguably a tougher assignment than what they are facing here. Also, if Haaland is past fit to play, this line will be around -200 come kick off at the Etihad.
But in my opinion, the market is focusing too much on Haaland and City and not their opponents. A few sides have struggled with injuries in recent weeks, but none more so than the Eagles. I’ve actually been invited to the club’s Christmas party, and they are so down to the bare bones of fit players, they’ve asked me to take my boots!
They lost four players in that devastating defeat to Liverpool, the most crucial of which being their goalkeeper Sam Johnstone. At the start of the season, that area of their squad looked the strongest with Dean Henderson there as well, meaning Palace had two England international goalkeepers.
Now they must rely on Remi Matthews, who over the last five years has been playing in the English third tier with Plymouth, Bolton and Sunderland before a year in Scotland with St. Johnstone.
The 29-year-old got a baptism of fire on his first taste of Premier League action. In the 15 minutes he played against Liverpool, he let in a goal which I thought he could have done better with and was saved from conceding another by a VAR call. Now he is likely to get his first start against a hungry and determined Manchester City at the Etihad.
This is the treble winners’ last game before they jet off to participate in the FIFA Club World Cup, and I am sure they will want to sign off with a statement victory. Guardiola’s men have taken some criticism in recent weeks, and they normally respond to that by putting a big number past someone. A patched-up Crystal Palace looks to be a good target for that, and therefore I expect City to cover this -2 handicap with ease.
A reminder, to cash this ticket, we need Manchester City to win by three or more goals, but if they only win by exactly two, we get a full refund of our stake.
Pick: Manchester City -2 at -110.
Burnley vs. Everton
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Sean Dyche makes his first return to his former club Burnley 18 months after being sacked and will be taking a few ex-players back with him. So, we should see the home side look to raise their game against their old boss.
Turf Moor was one of those places that the well-worn cliché for which “a tough place to go” was regularly used. But that hasn’t been the case at the start of this season.
Vincent Kompany implemented a style change on taking over the club and swept all challengers aside in romping to the title in the English second tier last season. But trying to do that in the Premier League is a different matter, and they have been caught woefully short.
It was clear the Clarets needed to make things tougher, more physical and uglier for their visitors. That seems to have begun to happen over the last couple of weeks—not so front foot, not taking so many risks around their own goal and playing more percentages to give them a chance of survival.
The last two results saw a gritty, albeit unsuccessful trip to Wolves, where they lost 1-0, and last week a very creditable 1-1 draw at goal-crazy Brighton. It is that shift change tactically that is leading me to bet under 2.5 goals here.
After hosting the Toffees, Burnley travel to Fulham, two fixtures they will desperately need to take points from. Because then games against Liverpool, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester City follow.
Everton would already be safe but for their 10-point deduction for financial reasons. Dyche has successfully used that to create a siege mentality and galvanize the club with performances getting better and better. What is certain is that the former Clarets boss will stop at nothing to avoid defeat on his return.
Expect a tight and cagey match, especially in the first half, so despite the ongoing trend for Overs betting, I have to take the Unders in this one. Rewind 12 months and play this game, this bet would be priced at around -150, and now it is -120. That’s value in my book.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals at -120
Arsenal vs. Brighton
Sunday, 09:00 a.m. ET
From Unders to a rare Over from me, as I am taking over 3 Asian total. I am amazed this bet is +102 with three goals giving a refund and four or more cashing the ticket. Those who like a more aggressive play can take over 3.5 goals which is around +150.
Brighton and goals go hand in hand and have scored in 32 consecutive Premier League games and in each of their last 21 road trips. Both teams to score bettors have cashed in all 16 of their Premier League games so far this term and in the last 20 in total when taking last season into account.
These two sides met three times last season, resulting in 13 goals, with this bet cashing twice and ending in a push once. Two of those games were played here, so the Emirates holds no fears for these Seagulls.
Only one of Arsenal’s eight home league games this season has seen less than three goals—that one coming against Manchester City so was an understandably tight and cagey affair between two title rivals. The Gunners have only kept two clean sheets on home soil and just three in their last 15.
Six of Brighton’s eight away games have seen four or more goals, with just two seeing less than three. So, over the 16 respective home and away fixtures, you would only have lost this bet three times, just under 19%.
This all points towards tremendous value in this bet. Brighton generally always score and concede while the addition of Declan Rice into the Arsenal midfield has added much-needed fighting spirit and never say die attitude. They will go all the way to the final whistle.
I’m not convinced by David Raya or the defense in front of him and Roberto De Zerbi will feel he can get at the hosts, who will certainly attack his team. A tactic that usually brings the best out of Brighton and leads to plenty of goals.
Pick: Over 3 Asian Total at +102
