EPL Best Bets
Let’s look at this week’s EPL best bets.
Manchester City vs. West Ham
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
With Manchester City around -1250 to win the Premier League for an unprecedented fourth time, the odds compilers think the title race is over, and I make them right. So where is the value in this City game? In goals—or, more to the point, in the lack of them.
I think Pep’s men will come here with the crowd already celebrating the title. They will have loads of possession, keep the ball for long periods, go 1-0 or 2-0 up, and then showboat their way to the final whistle. With the Asian Total set at 4.0, we can take advantage of that.
If you love a tackle in a game – this one won’t be for you. West Ham may huff and puff a little bit but don’t expect them to cause the hosts any serious problems, who will cruise through to the trophy presentation after the final whistle.
Manchester City just need to match or better Arsenal’s result at home to Everton to take the title. Obviously, a win seals the deal but that doesn’t need to be by three, four or five goals.
On top of that, next weekend, they have the small matter of a Manchester derby in the FA Cup final. As a result, they will look to rest players in the second half and substitute the likes of Erling Haaland and Phil Foden, bringing on teammates that need an appearance to qualify for a winner’s medal.
All of which leaves me scratching my head as to why the Asian Total is 4.0. If they needed to win by four or more goals, I would fully understand it, but they don’t and that is why the unders at -103 is a massive play for me.
Yes, the Hammers have conceded a lot of goals recently, but you can only play the intensity of the crowd, and the Etihad will be awash with sky blue celebrating party time, creating the feel of a testimonial or pre-season friendly. In COVID times, with games played in front of empty stands, there was a dearth of goals, and we can expect the same here.
For those of you wanting statistical backup to the argument, I have it for you. These two sides have played each other 45 times in the Premier League with just four games seeing five or more goals, eight times would have resulted in a refund/push, and you would have lost THIRTY-THREE times.
Also, for over 4.5 goals markets you need both teams to come to the party. I can only see one team with an invite this weekend so for this to lose, Pep’s men would need to clear the line on their own. They don’t need to – especially with that FA Cup final on the horizon. Under 4.0 Asian total, therefore, is a massive play.
EPL Best Bet: Under 4.0 Asian Total at -103.
Brentford vs. Newcastle
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
Newcastle will be looking to secure another season of European soccer here. They enter the final matchday of the season in seventh place, needing to leapfrog Chelsea, who are three points ahead to guarantee qualification, although seventh may yet mean a Europa Conference place if Manchester City beat Manchester United in the FA Cup final.
Whichever way you look at it though with the Red Devils breathing down their neck the Magpies will need a win to keep matters in their own hands. In short a must win fixture and the reason I am betting them here on the Moneyline at +110.
Having watched the game against Manchester United in midweek, I was surprised they lost 3-2 as I thought they were the better side, with Anthony Gordon in particular superb. Admittedly, their road form has not been the best, but they have started to consistently score goals. Six goals in their last two away games with 12 in their last four league games across all venues.
Brentford are a good opponent in that they have survived relegation and now are ready for the season to end so they can have a break. The Ivan Toney saga has dragged on, and they will be relieved to get that sorted and begin the rebuild.
The Bees record at home to the better sides is poor. They have lost to all the top four and only beaten the bottom four plus West Ham this term.
This is a massive game for Newcastle and Eddie Howe after overachieving last season and qualifying for the Champions League. The bar has been set and the least the owners expect now is more European nights even in the lesser ranked competition.
They will be hurt that they did not take anything out of that game on Wednesday night at Old Trafford. I also think the chance of European qualification has not been factored in, and if they needed a win for another season in the Champions League, they would be minus money.
Therefore that +110 looks a decent slice of value to me and a price on current form you would likely expect Newcastle to be at a normal point of the season not in a must win fixture.
EPL Best Bet: Newcastle Moneyline at +110.
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
Simply put, I really fancy Crystal Palace to win this one and win it well. After Manchester City beat Tottenham on Tuesday night to confirm fourth place and Champions League football for Aston Villa next season, I expected the price on the home win to crash.
It is so hard to up or even maintain your levels when you have achieved something but still have fixtures to fulfill. That is the situation Villa are in here, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a heavily rotated side from Unai Emery with a lot of youngsters involved.
We have seen it before when a team are crowned champions then get beat by lesser opposition. That exact scenario happened to Manchester City last season when they were beaten by Brentford after winning the title.
The Villains have done their work, earned the right, and duly celebrated at their end-of-season awards on Tuesday. Even before that, it must be said they have stumbled over the line, with no win in their last five matches, including crashing out of the Europa Conference League. They look leg-weary, and Captain John McGinn admitted as much.
Expect a massive move on Palace as kickoff approaches on this one with the hosts in red-hot form. Since Oliver Glasner took charge, they have played six home games winning four and scoring 17 goals in the process and are currently on an unbeaten run of six games across all venues.
I feel very bullish about this one. Although the Moneyline is a perfectly respectable -118, I am taking the Eagles on the -1 Asian Handicap at +145 in what could be the last game at Selhurst Park for one or both of their talisman Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. Expect those two to put on a show as well as Jean-Philippe Mateta who has made clear his desire to break into the France squad for the Euro’s next month.
A fit, firing and confident Eze and Olise are the worst players a jaded Villa defense will want to face, and I can see Palace scoring three or four here. I’m not going to be too greedy despite being my last pick of the season and will settle for the -1 Asian Handicap, meaning we cash with a win by two goals or more and get a refund if the hosts win by exactly one goal.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace -1 Asian Handicap at +145.
