Euro 2024 Best Bets:
Let’s take a look at some Euro 2024 best bets for the round of 16 which begins on Saturday.
Switzerland vs. Italy
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Switzerland have been surprisingly good so far in this tournament and came within a couple of minutes of beating Germany and topping Group A. In hindsight, that is probably the best goal they have conceded as it means they are now in, by far, the easiest half of the draw.
That game showed us just how well the Swiss can defend. They were aggressive and well-organized, keeping the tournament’s top scorers at arm’s length for 92 minutes.
Other than their opening match defeat of a disappointing Hungary, they have struggled in attack. They mustered only four shots against the Germans and needed a wonder strike from Xherdan Shaqiri after a defensive howler to score against Scotland.
Italy left it even later to grab their place in the last 16, needing a Mattia Zaccagni goal with 98 minutes on the clock to earn a draw against Croatia.
They, too, are struggling in attack, starting the first two group games with a striker who has scored just once in 19 international appearances. Against Croatia, Mateo Retegui was given the chance to lead the line and extended a barren run that has seen him score only once in his last 13 appearances for club and country.
This game screams Under, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it go all the way to penalties. These two sides were in the same World Cup qualifying group in 2021 and drew 0-0 and 1-1. The Swiss have drawn six of their last 10 internationals with eight seeing Under 2.5 goals, while it’s six of the last eight Italian fixtures that have seen two or fewer goals.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: Under 2.25 goals at -150.
Germany vs. Denmark
Saturday, 03:00 p.m. ET
Germany showcased a variety of positive attributes in winning Group A. They were thrilling and ruthless as they hammered Scotland 5-1 on the opening night, clinical and efficient in defeating Hungary 2-0 and then showed their resilience as they dug deep to snatch a draw from the jaws of defeat against the Swiss.
That draw also illustrated Julian Nagelsmann has the tools to impact things from off the bench. Niclas Füllkrug has played just 73 minutes as a substitute so far this tournament and scored two goals. The Germans have created more chances, taken more shots, and scored more goals than any other nation after the group stage.
They face a Denmark side that were the only team to automatically qualify out of their group without winning a game. Only finishing above third-placed Slovenia on yellow card countback.
Germany have far too much firepower for the Danes. Having won nine of their last 11 major tournament first knockout games, they will be confident of making that 10 of 12 here in Dortmund. The atmosphere will be white hot, and the hosts will be roared on to win by at least two goals, which is what we need to cash this bet. We have the safety net of a full refund should they only win by one.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: Germany -1 Handicap at +114.
England vs. Slovakia
Sunday, 12:00 p.m. ET
England have been coming in for all kinds of stick after their first three performances. But they topped the group and are still the favorites in the futures market to win the whole thing at odds of +350.
One thing they certainly have working well is their defense, Jordan Pickford has only been beaten once, and it took an unstoppable strike that flew in from 30 yards. From solid foundations games and tournaments are won while it is surely only a matter of time before a side containing Harry Kane, Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham click in the final third.
Gareth Southgate’s opponents in the last 16 are Slovakia, third-place finishers in Group F. Fortunate shock winners on match day one against a Belgium side who had numerous chances and two goals ruled out via marginal VAR decisions. They were then beaten by Ukraine before drawing their final group game versus Romania, a result which was favorite pre-kickoff, as it meant both sides progressed.
The Three Lions have won five of their last six games against the Slovaks and will get the job done again here, while keeping a clean sheet. Variations of England “win-to-nil” are England win and Both Teams to Score = no or England win and under 0.5 Slovakia goals.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: England to win to nil at +100.
Spain vs. Georgia
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Spain is the only side to have won all three of their games so far. They still looked impressive when they made 10 changes for the fixture against Albania. Spain may have only scored five goals, but that defeat of Italy was one of the most one-sided 1-0 victories I have ever seen.
Luis de la Fuente has his side playing a more direct and energetic style than we are used to seeing from them. They play with real width which allows their creative midfielders the space to pick out key passes, and the head coach knows tournament soccer well. He led the Spanish to victory in the Nations League last summer and oversaw the Under 19 and Under 21 national teams when they won their Euro titles.
What a great watch opponents Georgia have been. The 74th-ranked team in the world were expected to finish bottom of their group in their first major international tournament, but they have massively overachieved with their effective, exciting counter-attacking style. In Georges Mikautadze, they have the current top goalscorer in the competition.
However, I make no apologies for ending the fairy tale I am here to cash winning tickets. Over 2.75 goals is a massive play here at -112.
These two nations shared the same qualifying group. Spain won while hitting the back of the net 25 times in their eight games which saw an average of 3.75 goals per fixture. Georgia actually finished fourth and had to qualify via the back door, but their games averaged exactly the same.
Large contributors to those totals were when the two nations met. Spain won both meetings, a 3-1 victory on home soil was overshadowed by an incredible 7-1 victory in Georgia. Just three goals will get us a half-stake win here, but four or more will cash the ticket in full.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: Over 2.75 goals at -112.
France vs. Belgium
Monday, 12:00 p.m. ET
It was a shock to see France fail to win their group for the first time since the European Championship of 2012. They do enter the knockout stages unbeaten, and but for a twice-taken penalty for Poland, they would have topped Group D.
Kylian Mbappé also scored his first Euros goal and proved he can still hit the target whilst wearing his protective mask. He can add to his tally here against a Belgium defense that consists of 37-year-old Jan Vertonghen and Wout Faes, who always looks like he has an error in him. The French captain’s pace can exploit those weaknesses.
In a similar way to Gareth Southgate for England, there is dissatisfaction with the soccer Didier Deschamps has his star-studded side playing. Let us remember, though, that under him, Les Bleus have reached the final in three of the last four major tournaments. They look great value at -110 to win this one.
Domenico Tedesco’s side were booed off by their own fans after the 0-0 draw against Ukraine, which sealed their place in the knockout stages as Group E runners-up. As well as another frustrating performance, those fans also knew that meant a Round of 16 clash with the French, and the end of their tournament was around the corner.
Aside from the odd flash of brilliance from Kevin De Bruyne, there has not been much to get excited about for Red Devils supporters. High hopes were had of Jeremy Doku, but his final ball has often left lots to be desired, while the luckless but goalless Romelu Lukaku has cut an ever-increasingly frustrated figure.
France’s rock-solid defense has not conceded a goal from open play in over 7.5 hours and can shut out the misfiring Belgium attack. Expect them to do just enough to make it to the last eight once more.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: France Moneyline at -110.
Portugal vs. Slovenia
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Portugal claimed their place in the last 16 at the earliest possible opportunity after winning their opening two fixtures. Don’t read too much into the defeat to minnows Georgia with their work already done as guaranteed group winners and Roberto Martinez giving the majority of his starting lineup the night off.
With their stars returning fresh for this clash, that gives them even more of an edge against Slovenia who have qualified for the knockout stages of the European Championship for the first time. One star name who did start against Georgia was Cristiano Ronaldo, who went unsuccessfully in search of what would have been a goal in a sixth successive Euros. He at least has the consolation of providing a tournament all-time record seventh assist when creating Bruno Fernandes’ goal in the 3-0 defeat of Turkey.
It will be interesting to see if he starts again here, but the fact that is a question highlights the incredible depth Martinez has in his squad. Diogo Jota, Goncalo Ramos, and Joao Felix all wait in the wings but offer great bench options if faith is kept with the 39-year-old captain.
Along with Denmark, Slovenia are one of only two sides in the final 16 who have yet to win in this year’s tournament. While the Portuguese cruised to the knockout stages, they had to sweat it out before being confirmed as the fourth and final best of the third-place finishers. Actually, ending on less points than Ukraine who were eliminated after finishing bottom of group E.
Only five nations conceded more shots at their goal than Matjaž Kek’s men which is a recipe for disaster against a Portugal side with goals throughout the team. Top scorers in qualifying and with the meanest defence a win by two or more goals is the way in here for a side that are priced up as high as -278 on the Money Line. With this bet, if Portugal only win by one goal, we only lose half our stake.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: Portugal -1.25 Handicap at -102.
