Euro 2024 Best Bets: England vs. Spain
England vs. Spain
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET
It’s destination Berlin this Sunday afternoon, and not just for the players of Spain and England who will be contesting the European Championship final, but for me too! Yes, I will be at the Olympiastadion, cheering my nation on at my sixth major tournament, my second final but first outside of England. Not only will I be cheering them on as a fan but as a bettor as well. I took a position on the Three Lions just before their final group game as they were value, and I am recommending the same play here again for exactly the same reason as part of our Euro 2024 best bets.
England Moneyline +250
England were favorites in the futures market before a ball was kicked in Germany. They have been at the head of the betting (albeit uneasily) for much of the tournament. Now heading into the final, Spain have taken that honor and are +148 to win the match and -155 to lift the trophy, with England +250 and +120. However, the tie priced at +185 skews this market and makes England a serious value play.
If this was the opening match of the tournament, the odds would be reversed. But is it right to base our thoughts on what has happened over the last four weeks rather than zoom out and look at the bigger picture? I don’t think so.
Yes, England have been underwhelming throughout the competition, but they have been getting better. They are playing a new system, arguably stumbled upon by chance but it is working. I have always said if you can’t be good, be lucky!
These England players have been through some tough times over their last six games, but here they are in the final with a chance to write history. They will use those dark days to inspire them here as they have done in the last couple of rounds. There just seems to be something special, something strange working in their favor. Destiny perhaps.
Spain is, without a doubt, a deserved favorite. They have played the best soccer, scored the most goals, and won all six of their fixtures, only needing extra time once. Have they peaked too soon, and could they be complacent? England certainly has a few more gears to slip into yet.
Two huge factors swaying me towards England here are the massive support they will have and the priceless experience within the squad. Being here in Germany, I have seen that England supporters have been outnumbered at every game.
The Dutch support was incredible, and the Swiss were the same. Trust me, Berlin will be packed full of English support this weekend, and the Olympiastadion will become Wembley for the day.
All the headlines have been about the incredible young talent Spain has in their ranks, which is true. But the one thing those kids don’t have is big-game experience. Most of this England squad have played in a World Cup semifinal and can draw on the lessons learned from being in the last European Championship final. There are also plenty in the squad that have won the biggest trophies for their clubs.
As this new system settles in, Gareth Southgate is gaining more confidence to have a go, and he will have to get his team to do just that. Allowing Spain too much ball and giving them too much respect is a recipe for disaster, and he knows that.
This side, like the majority before them, are better when their backs are to the wall. It’s at that point they come out and play. We have seen that more than once this tournament. Southgate also knows when he throws his substitutes on, they are performing for him.
So not only does that make me confident of an England win, it also makes me firmly believe we are in for an entertaining final. That goes against the trend of European Championship finals over the years, but Spain only knows one way to play, and England will be forced to follow suit.
Both Teams to Score -106
I have always been an Unders bettor, and I have done well this tournament with that strategy. But I think the goals line is set too low here. That may shock many of you who probably expected to be reading about another Under goals play from me.
If you think a line is off, in this case Under 2.5 goals at -200, it brings the connected markets into play, as they are usually value. That is why I think Both Teams to Score at -106 is the bet.
Everyone has been talking about how bad England’s games have been and that they lack goals. The facts are both teams to score has cashed in four of their six matches so far, including each of the last three, with the Three Lions only failing to score in one of those—the 0-0 draw with Slovenia.
An early Spain goal opens this up, and I can see that happening. England have gone behind in all of their knockout games. Despite not allowing a goal in any of their three group games, Spain have conceded in their three knockout fixtures, with Both Teams to Score cashing in each game.
The do-or-die nature of knockout soccer makes this bet a really strong play. It comes down to score or go home. Six of the last seven games at Euro 2024 have seen both teams score. This fixture can add to that list, as was the case in the last final, when England drew 1-1 with Italy, with the opening goal coming after just two minutes.
Harry Kane to Score +245
For my final selection, I have to take another bet, which screams value to me. Harry Kane to Score may seem obvious, but at odds of +245, he is impossible to ignore.
Unless the Bayern Munich striker gets injured in training, he will 100% start here. There is no way Gareth will drop him to the bench regardless of how well his understudies have done. The captain has scored eight goals in his last nine major tournament knockout stage appearances, with six of those coming in the European Championship.
He is England’s record goalscorer. He is on penalties, and despite the heavy weight of criticism directed at him, he has still come up with three goals, a tally no player in this tournament can top. That means he has a great chance of another Golden Boot; he will be hungry.
His penalty against the Netherlands made it three goals in six games, not a bad return at all. If Kylian Mbappé was coming into this game with a chance of being the tournament’s top scorer, he would be -110.
I backed Kane to Score in the opening group game against Serbia at +110. This game seems far more likely to have goals than that one, and here we are with +245 on the table.
An entertaining game with goals at both ends and Harry Kane getting at least one for England who go on to win the game and lift the trophy. I will be there to see it and I can’t wait.
Euro 2024 Best Bet #1: England Moneyline at +250.
Euro 2024 Best Bet #2: Both Teams to Score at -106.
Euro 2024 Best Bet #3: Harry Kane to Score at +245.
