Euro 2024 Soccer Best Bets – Quarterfinals:
Let’s take a look at my Euro 2024 best bets for the quarterfinal round.
Spain vs. Germany
Friday, 12:00 p.m. ET
The European Championship quarterfinals kick off with a cracker on Friday afternoon. It is a clash between arguably the two most eye-catching sides of the tournament so far and the only two nations to have previously lifted the trophy three times.
Both sides head to Stuttgart defending unbeaten records, with Spain the only team to have won all four of their games in Germany. They cruised into the last eight with a 4-1 hammering of a Georgia side that had already achieved the unthinkable of progressing to the knockout stages.
Luis de la Fuente’s men conceded their first goal of Euro 2024 in that Round of 16 clash. It came as a result of a cross bouncing in off Robin Le Normand, so no opposition player has scored against them. They have conceded more than once in just one of their last 14 competitive internationals and none of the last 12, keeping a clean sheet in seven of those.
Germany was less convincing in beating Denmark. They needed a slice of good fortune but still managed a win to nil. The return of Jonathan Tah back from suspension will provide a huge boost, as he will partner with Antonio Rüdiger.
Depending on results elsewhere, there is every chance the winners of this match will become favorites to win the tournament. The outcome is tough to predict, but at the prices, I favor Germany to progress at around -106. I am certain this will be a tight, cagey and competitive match.
Therefore, odds of -120 Under 2.5 goals looks like great value. It’s a bet that would have landed in six of the last seven meetings between the two nations.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: Under 2.50 goals at -120.
Portugal vs. France
Friday, 03:00 p.m. ET
Another quarterfinal tie that looks mouth-watering on paper. Sorry to be the party pooper, but I can’t see this being a thriller.
There was an expectation that this tournament would set goal-scoring records, and it started off looking that way, with 34 goals in the first round of matches at an average of 2.83. By the end of the group stages, that average had dropped to 2.25, exactly the same as in the Round of 16 ties.
Eight of the 12 first-group games cashed for Over 2.5 goals bettors; that number dropped to four in the second set of fixtures, while just two matches saw three or more goals on match day three. Of the eight Round of 16 clashes, five cashed on Under 2.5 goals, with the three that went over being the ones we expected.
I must back Under 2.25 goals here, meaning half our stake is on Under 2.5 and the other half on Under 2.0. If there are one or fewer goals, we get a full win. If there are two, we cash half our stake and get half refunded, and we only lose if there are three or more goals.
Portugal had the meanest defense in qualifying, conceding just two goals in their 10 fixtures and haven’t quite clicked in attack this tournament. Their tactics seem to be geared towards what Cristiano Ronaldo wants rather than what is best for the team.
Their captain has fired 20 shots at Euro 2024 and has yet to score, even missing a penalty in extra time of the 0-0 draw with Slovenia in the Round of 16. He is taking all the free kicks and shooting from some outrageous positions. His time is rapidly coming to an end, and the frustration is there for all to see.
Expect him to get no change from this miserly France defense, and William Saliba in particular, who is showing he is one of the best defenders on the planet right now. Didier Deschamps has seen his side keep five clean sheets in their last six internationals, with that strike being a twice-taken penalty by Poland in the final group game here.
They have been generally underwhelming in the tournament, though, and have scored just three goals—none of those in open play by one of their own players. Kylian Mbappé slotted home a penalty in that Poland game, and they beat both Austria and Belgium 1-0 courtesy of own goals.
These two nations can cancel each other out, as has been the case in four of their last five meetings—fixtures that have seen two 0-0 draws and two 1-0 wins for France.
Euro 2024 Best Bets: Under 2.25 goals at -136.
England vs. Switzerland
Saturday, Noon. ET
Another England game, another England win, and a whole load of more fierce criticism. Yet still, the Three Lions remain the clear +275 favorites to lift the trophy on July 14th.
There is no denying England’s dreadful performance at Euro 2024. A safety-first manager persists with an unbalanced side that looks shorn of any confidence (one or two individuals apart). England was around 60 seconds away from elimination before that wonderful acrobatic goal from Jude Bellingham against Slovakia.
Yet here I am, tipping up a win for Gareth Southgate’s men, and not just because I am a proud Englishman who will be roaring my side on from the stands at the Merkur Spiel-Arena, Düsseldorf and then hopefully beyond. In fact, I have four very good reasons as to why this is a great bet.
Firstly, England can’t play any worse. They topped their group with three sluggish performances and forced extra time against the Slovaks with their first shot on target in the 95th minute. Somehow, they keep getting the job done while still desperately trying to click into gear.
Having Marc Guehi unavailable through suspension is a blow, but another enforced change could finally result in some much-needed balance. Kieran Tripper has been struggling with a calf injury and was taken off after 66 minutes in the last game. Bukayo Saka dropped to left-back, Cole Palmer took his place on the right, and England started to play much better. If Southgate chooses to or is forced to start that way on Saturday, I look forward to seeing a vastly improved England performance.
Confidence, mindset, belief and tournaments change on moments. Big-game players step up when the going gets tough. Who else? Jude Bellingham bellowed after that stoppage time wonder goal.
From the brink of elimination to three games from lifting a first major trophy in close to six decades, that group of players will start to believe it is their destiny. The fact Harry Kane scored 54 seconds into extra time underlined the point. Give him a chance, and he will generally score, as he has done 14 times now at major tournaments, more than any Englishman with only four European players ahead of him.
Finally, and most importantly England are huge value in my book at +125. The Swiss have punched above their weight at this tournament and are a well-organized side who have a settled squad that is playing to the peak of their powers as a team.
Murat Yakin’s men are not a prolific outfit, and we should be in for another tight matchup. Only two of their last 11 internationals has seen Over 2.5 goals, while for England, it is two of 10, so no surprise to see Under 2.5 goals priced up at around -200.
Games of fine margins are usually settled by match winners and game changers. England hold the aces in that respect both in starting lineup and off the bench. If this was the opening game of the tournament, England would be -163, and I feel the traders have massively overreacted.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: England Moneyline at +125.
Netherlands vs. Turkey
Saturday, 3Â p.m. ET
The last quarterfinal looks the most entertaining of the four. Therefore, I am a little surprised to see Over 2.5 goals available at a very backable price.
After an underwhelming group stage that saw them finish third behind Austria and France, the Netherlands posted their best performance of the tournament, beating Romania 3-0. In truth, they should have scored a few more.
A side containing Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay, Xavi Simons and the marauding Denzel Dumfries will cause any team problems. Steven Bergwijn got his first minutes of Euro 2024 when starting against the Romanians; his halftime replacement, Donyell Malen, scored twice.
That was the fourth time this year the Dutch have covered this line on their own in just eight internationals. Seven of those games have cashed for Over 2.5 goals bettors.
Turkey’s Round of 16 clash with Austria was a great watch from minute one—Merih Demiral’s opening goal after just 57 seconds being the quickest in European Championship knockout history.
What unfolded could only be described as chaos, and not for the first time in games involving Vincenzo Montella’s men. This is possibly in part due to the incredible atmosphere their games have been played in due to the huge number of Turks living in Germany. This will be another white-hot spectacle, with the Netherlands followers not shy of having a party in the stands.
With his defenders out on their feet in front of him Mert Gunok pulled off the save of the tournament in the final seconds of the victory over Austria. Despite his best-efforts, Turkey have conceded in all four games in Germany with all cashing for those holding Over 2.5 goals tickets.
Expect the Netherlands to justify their long odds to progress here with their opponents suffering a little fatigue and missing key players through suspension. The play though is certainly Over 2.5 goals.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at -125.
