Switzerland vs. Colombia
BC Place, Vancouver, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Tuesday, July 7th, 4:00 p.m. ET
Switzerland vs. Colombia looks like a really interesting matchup to me, and from a betting perspective, I think it offers a nice angle. While both teams have earned reputations for being defensively solid, the market may be undervaluing the scoring potential, which makes Over 2 Asian Total Goals a value play in my book.
The Swiss have shown consistency going forward and have been one of the tournament’s more productive attacking units, scoring in each of their four fixtures and a total of nine goals. They regularly commit numbers forward, especially in transition with their overlapping fullbacks, although their round-of-32 victory over Algeria was a first clean sheet in six games.
Although this bet has only cashed in one of Colombia’s four fixtures in the tournament, their defense will likely face its toughest test here. However, at the other end, their attacking talent such as Luis Díaz, Luis Suarez and Jhon Arias has consistently created quality chances even in tighter contests, fired off plenty of shots and should have scored more than their five goals.
The tactical matchup is what appeals here, with Switzerland unlikely to change their style and sit deep, which should create more space than Néstor Lorenzo’s side has seen in recent games. Whichever side grabs the opening goal, the game state becomes far more favorable for bettors holding an Over ticket, as neither team is built to soak up long periods of pressure and have the tools to exploit opportunities on the break.
The beauty of the Asian total set at two goals is the added protection: although we need three or more goals to cash, exactly two goals gives us a full refund of our stake. In a knockout match featuring two unbeaten sides stacked with attacking talent, that safety net adds significant value.
This bet has only lost in one of Switzerland’s last 10 internationals, cashing five times and pushing on four occasions. Over the same sample size of games, we would cash in six of Colombia’s fixtures with three losses and a push.
World Cup Best Bet: Switzerland vs Colombia – Over 2 Asian Total at -134
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