WNBA Picks
What a weird night it was in the WNBA last night. Minnesota lost outright at home to Connecticut, the Mystics failed to even score 50 points, and Seattle picked up an 18-point road win. I’d say a parlay of those three things happening would’ve paid out 100-1 or better. Just a couple games for Tuesday, with Paige Bueckers and the Wings traveling to New York to take on the Liberty, while Phoenix will host Chicago in Skylar Diggins’ apparent first game off the bench for the Sky, which she was not happy about. Here are the TSI projections for Monday.
New York Liberty (-4.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 175.5
New York took care of Minnesota in its last game out, but defensively have been giving up about four points per game more over their last five games than they have on the season. They’ve been about a point better at home but about 1.5 points worse against playoff teams this season. Dallas has been about six points worse over their last five games than their season average, and has been eight points worse on the road this season but slightly better against playoff teams. TSI projects Liberty -7.5 with a total of 171. These teams’ respective home/road games vs playoff teams have averaged about 172 points, so I’m going to play the Under here and lean Liberty laying the points.
Bet: Under 175.5 (Play to 173.5)
Lean: Liberty -4.5
Phoenix Mercury (-4.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 175.5
I’m not sure what’s gotten into Phoenix lately, but they’ve been playing 9.5 points above their season average over their last three games. Meanwhile, Chicago has a bit of internal turmoil after losing to the Aces in OT Friday night, they’ve now benched Skylar Diggins in favor of veteran Courtney Vandersloot at the point guard spot, which Diggins was livid about in an Instagram story this weekend. Phoenix has actually been worse at home and against non-playoff teams, but Chicago has been way worse on the road, although slightly better against non-playoff teams. TSI projects Mercury -6 with a total of 176, so there’s not really a big enough edge here to feel great about. I’m going to pass on this game but would lean Mercury based on recent play and the internal issues with Chicago.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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