USA vs. Paraguay Prediction – 2026 FIFA World Cup Preview and Pick:
United States vs. Paraguay
Friday, June 12th – 9:00 p.m. ET
USA (-110) | Draw (+245) | Paraguay (+320)
Over 2.5 Goals (+130) | Under 2.5 Goals (-165)
The 2026 World Cup journey for the United States begins this Friday. The host nation kicks off against Paraguay in Los Angeles, and the atmosphere promises to be one of the greatest spectacles in US soccer history. The hope of a deep run into the knockout stages feels closer than ever — but the Americans will need to come out with conviction, play within themselves, and grind out a result against a Paraguay side that is more than capable of causing problems. None of that will be easy.
Looking at recent form gives us a clear picture of what both sides bring to the table. The United States (FIFA Rank #14) have played four international friendlies this calendar year in a schedule that was anything but forgiving — and the results reflected that. Of those four matches, one was a win: a well-earned 3-2 victory over Senegal (#16), with Pulisic and Balogun both on the scoresheet — exactly the formula this team needs. The other three came against Belgium (#9), Portugal (#5), and Germany (#10), with the US outscored by a combined 9-3.
Paraguay (#40) have three matches under their belts in 2026, posting two wins and a loss against respectable competition. They defeated Greece (#47) 1-0 back in March and dismantled Nicaragua (#131) 4-0 just last week. Sandwiched between those results was a narrow 2-1 defeat to Morocco (#8) — a match where Paraguay arguably deserved more, holding their own statistically throughout.
Here’s where things get particularly interesting for Paraguay heading into this opener. In that match against Nicaragua, star striker Julio Enciso was stretchered off in the first half with an injury. Enciso is not just a goalscorer — he’s the creative engine of this side. For his club, Strasbourg in Ligue 1, he recorded a goal and four assists across his last three matches before the international window. Without him, Paraguay will need to find creativity from elsewhere.
(Not an official pick from this column — but in discussing World Cup futures with Alex Blowers, he flagged Paraguay to score the fewest goals in the tournament at 40/1 as worth a look given this news. Hard to argue with that.)
For those who follow my MLS soccer coverage, you know I lean heavily on the three-way moneyline as part of my handicapping process. The United States, sitting at -105 on the three-way as a true home side, is telling — there’s belief here, but it’s measured belief. Over the past year or more, this US side has shown it can handle competition at this level when the moment calls for it. I expect them to come out with a point to prove and start the tournament on the right foot.
That said, don’t expect fireworks. This one has the look of a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair.
Picks:
United States ML (-110)
Both Teams to Score: No (-130)
USA ML / BTTS No Parlay: (+190)
