2024 Australian Open Best Bets – Day 3
The 2023 tennis season feels like it ended just yesterday, but the 2024 Australian Open is here. There’s going to be tons of high-level action in Melbourne Park over the next few weeks, and that presents all sorts of opportunities for bettors. Throughout the course of the 2024 tennis season, VSiN will have you covered with daily best bet write-ups for some of the biggest events of the year. That starts with the 2024 Australian Open, and we’re tackling the action for January 15 and 16 here. Keep reading for all of my best bets and check back throughout the day. I’ll add some plays if I see some numbers I like later on.
2024 Record: 15-17 (-3.32 units)
Yoshihito Nishioka vs. Holger Rune
Rune made a run to the final at the Brisbane International a few weeks ago, looking a lot more like the player we saw towards the beginning of 2023 than the one we saw towards the end of it. That’s a good sign for the 20-year-old early in the 2024 season, as this is a guy that should be mentioned near the top of the men’s game. However, Rune has always had some trouble with the physicality of majors, as he struggles with the best-of-5 format. That’s going to make his opening round match-up with Nishioka tough, as the Japanese player is one of the best grinders on tour. He puts a ton of balls in play and just hopes for opponents to tire out and make mistakes, and that means that he could give Rune a tough battle here. Nishioka actually beat Rune in a three-set match in Adelaide in 2023, so he has defeated him in very similar conditions. With that in mind, I love the price on Nishioka to win a single set.
Bet: Nishioka +2.5 Sets (-120 – 1.5 units)
Jack Draper vs. Marcos Giron
Draper is one of the most talented young players in the men’s game, but conditioning issues and injuries have derailed his career thus far. Now, Draper will be facing a wall of a baseline player in the opening round of this tournament, and he’s doing so after having made a run to the final in Adelaide last week. I just think that Draper is bound to deal with some fatigue in this meeting with Giron, who has to know that he is playing a guy with questionable fitness. So, I’m playing Giron to keep this thing relatively close. If the American takes the first or second set, Draper will be in for a long battle and you’ll be happy you grabbed the game spread.
Bet: Giron +5.5 Games (-125 – 2 units)
Sebastian Ofner vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Ofner is a player that people like quite a bit, but I think this is a difficult match-up for him. Kokkinakis absolutely loves playing in front of his home crowd, and his booming serve gives him a chance every time he’s out there. Well, Ofner also happens to be a player that seems to constantly dig himself into trouble when it’s his turn to serve. And if he regularly plays lazy service games, Kokkinakis will break through eventually. And the Australian won’t give up leads once he has them. He’s that good as a server. Kokkinakis also happened to beat Ofner in Australian Open qualifying back in 2019. So, we know these conditions can help the Australian get through this very match-up.
Bet: Kokkinakis ML (+106 – 1.5 units)
Petra Martic vs. Ajla Tomljanovic
This is another match in which I’m keeping things relatively simple and just playing the local player. It has been a while since Tomljanovic played her best tennis, but she looked decent enough at the United Cup. Now, Tomljanovic will be facing a very beatable opening-round opponent, and she’ll be doing so in a night match in front of her home crowd. I think that’ll give her the adrenaline she needs to come out and win this one. Tomljanovic actually beat Martic at the 2021 US Open, and that was the last time these two met. With that in mind, I like this price on the Australian, who should have a solid 2024 season.
Bet: Tomljanovic ML (+120)
Bernabe Zapata Miralles Over 11.5 Games Won (-116 – 1.5 units) vs. Jiri Lehecka
Arthur Cazaux ML (+120 – 1.5 units) vs. Laslo Djere
Giulio Zeppieri ML (+106) vs. Dusan Lajovic
Marton Fucsovics +2.5 Sets (-145) vs. Grigor Dimitrov