The ATP Finals, held indoors at Turin’s Inalpi Arena from November 15 to 22, feature eight of the world’s best players, but who’s worth backing to finish the year with a title? The two-time reigning champion won’t be a factor. Jannik Sinner, who won in 2024 and 2025, is skipping the event with a right knee injury having ended his season. Below, I’ll quickly break down the round-robin format before getting into my favorite outright picks to win it all.
ATP Finals Format
The ATP Finals use a round-robin format, with eight players split into two groups of four. Each player faces the other three men in his group, with the top two advancing to the semifinals.
From there, it’s win or go home. Each group winner faces the runner-up from the opposite group, and the semifinal winners meet for the title. Unlike most weeks on tour, one loss doesn’t necessarily end your tournament.
ATP Finals Groups & Odds To Win Tournament
(Odds provided by Circa Sports)
John McEnroe Group
- Alexander Zverev (+450)
- Ben Shelton (+625)
- Arthur Fils (16-1)
- Rafael Jodar (13-1)
Ivan Lendl Group
- Carlos Alcaraz (-125)
- Daniil Medvedev (12-1)
- Flavio Cobolli (+4150)
- Frances Tiafoe (32-1)
ATP Finals Picks To Win
Carlos Alcaraz To Win (-115 – 2.5 units) & Daniil Medvedev To Win (14-1 – 0.5 units): Alcaraz arrives in Turin riding a 10-match winning streak. In several of those matches, the Spaniard beat high-level opponents while playing well short of his best. He looks like the top player in the world again, at least in a Sinner-less world, and he seems highly motivated.
The round-robin format also works in his favor. If he slips early, he has more than one chance to recover. And no one could fault him for an early loss after he won back-to-back titles heading in.
Once Alcaraz reaches the semifinals, it’s hard to imagine him losing. Zverev has played miserable tennis for months. Alcaraz also appears to have solved the Shelton problem that troubled him at the US Open.
The one player I can see derailing him is Medvedev, who pushed him harder than anyone in the last two tournaments. Medvedev’s advanced numbers and overall serving stats suggest he’s turning a corner, and in these conditions he’s dangerous. At 14-1, there’s real value in taking a shot on him.
