I spent a decent amount of time editing for the Tennis Channel’s old website, so I generally trust my instincts when it comes to the “will he or won’t he” games we play with some of the sport’s top players. On top of that, I still have some friends with the company that text me reliable information. Well, one of those texts has me handicapping the 2026 US Open while I’m in Europe for vacation — and more specifically doing so at 1:30 am local time with my toddler inches away. That text was one that expressed serious doubt about whether Jannik Sinner will step on the court at Flushing Meadows, and it came from the same source that steered me in the right direction with the Italian’s elbow injury at Wimbledon in 2025.
Sinner is currently doing everything he can to manage some pain in his knee, and he even received shockwave therapy a couple of days ago. However, the thinking is that Sinner won’t play the US Open unless he’s 100% fit to do so. His team is usually very smart about managing his body, so it’s unlikely the people around him will put him in harm’s way so that he can chase a short-term goal. Is it 100% he’ll sit? Absolutely not. A lot can change between now and the tournament. But things don’t look great. That, combined with the fact that Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t played a match since April, makes things pretty interesting when it comes to betting this year’s tournament.
Alcaraz will likely be out there when the world’s best players arrive in New York, but how long will it take him to find his game? The all-time greats tend to shake things off rather quickly, and the gap between Alcaraz and the field might be so big that it won’t matter how well he’s playing. But if there was ever a major to take some shots a little further down the board, it’s this one. Novak Djokovic will like his chances of winning Grand Slam No. 25, and Alexander Zverev might view this as a prime opportunity to win his second major. But I’m staying away from those two and firing away on four other players — and I also grabbed Iga Swiatek to win the women’s tournament at +800 a few days back, meaning I now have five early plays when I typically like to wait until the draws are out.
2026 US Open Futures
I found most of the following numbers at prediction markets, which is alright with me. While I still mostly favor traditional sportsbooks, the prediction markets do allow you to get out of plays a little easier when it’s later in the tournament. That almost gives us a built-in cash-out feature, and it means we don’t have to nail any of these picks in order to win money. As long as the players go deep in the tournament, we could end up in the green. I’m risking a half-unit on all four of these.
Ben Shelton (19-1 / 5 cents): In many ways, Shelton still feels like he’s far away from winning a Grand Slam. Sure, the American just won the National Bank Open for the second year in a row, picking up some big wins in the process. However, in typical Shelton fashion, he went out with a straight-set loss against Jaime Faria in his first match in Cincinnati. Shelton just leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to week-to-week consistency, and you never quite know what you’re getting from him. But Shelton also happens to level up on the biggest stages, and his eyes are probably lighting up as he looks at this field and sees what some of the top players are dealing with. That said, with the crowd in his corner, it wouldn’t be stunning if Shelton can serve his way deep into this event. He just needs to come with the baseline play he showed us in Montreal, as he was extremely disciplined from the back of the court. That would go a long way in Flushing.
Taylor Fritz (19-1 / 5 cents): Fritz might not be all that healthy himself, as he has been dealing with knee pain for most of the season. However, the American has been to the finals of this event before, and he has the game to go deep in a watered-down field. Fritz is just so reliable as a server, and the rest of his game is criminally underrated. He uses his length well to put returns back in play, he’s a rock-solid baseliner, and he’s mentally tough. So, if Fritz doesn’t have to step up a weight class in talent throughout the course of the tournament, there’s a real chance he’s playing deep into the second week. I just hope he doesn’t empty the tank in Cincinnati.
Rafael Jodar (20-1): This is the only one I took at a traditional shop, and I wouldn’t say I feel great about it. Jodar is extremely unproven when it comes to best-of-five tennis, and winning a Grand Slam this early feels like a major leap for the Spaniard. However, when it comes to Elo Rating, Jodar is No. 4 in the world in 2026. Only Sinner, Alcaraz, and Zverev sit above him, making it tough to pass on 20-1 odds. If this really is a field featuring no Sinner and an out-of-form Alcaraz, Jodar might have the talent and mental stability to take advantage.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (49-1 / 2 cents): It’s a little nuts that Auger-Aliassime is out there at nearly 50-1 odds. The Canadian has been a top-10 player in tennis for years, he has been to the semifinals of this event twice, and his big game is a perfect fit for the conditions in New York. Auger-Aliassime just needs to find a way to avoid an early-round upset, as he is somewhat prone to letdown performances. But if he can, he’s as live as anyone outside of Sinner and Alcaraz. And if you’re thinking that Zverev deserves a little more respect when thinking about this year’s contenders, Auger-Aliassime has beaten him twice in a row — including at last year’s US Open. I’d also like Auger-Aliassime in a rematch against Djokovic down the road. The Canadian probably should have defeated him at Wimbledon, but he played a little tight in the biggest moments.
