MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, August 19.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:35 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has a 4.42 ERA and 4.20 fielding independent overall this season, but is allowing just one home run per nine innings away from home compared to 1.5 home runs per nine innings at home. Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has pitched to a lot of contact with 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a 5.11 ERA, but does face a Yankees lineup that, in its past 44 games entering Tuesday, was averaging less than 3.4 runs per game. The Yankees bullpen also leads the league in bullpen ERA since June 1 at 2.66.
Pick: Yankees vs. Orioles Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
4:10 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox
The Diamondbacks overall this season are 14th in the league in offense with over 4.5 runs per game, but their leader in home runs, Ketel Marte, is on the restricted list. They also have to face Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle, who has a 2.97 ERA with 10 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt has been incredible since returning to the starting rotation on June 30, with the team going 7-1 in his starts and Pfaadt supplying a 1.15 ERA with only one home run allowed in 54 2/3 innings. However, he is getting fewer than five strikeouts per nine innings, and all that contact, along with a 2.66 fielding independent, points toward regression.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -153
6:05 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has had a rough season with a 5.33 ERA, 2.1 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings allowed. The Phillies offense is much better at home, scoring a National League-low 4.05 runs per game away from home compared to over 4.8 runs per game at home. Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has a 3.43 ERA but a higher 3.78 fielding independent while pitching to a lot of contact, getting a career-low 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -125 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -143 and Total 9.3
6:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer has looked better recently with a combined five runs allowed in his past four starts, but still has a 6.59 ERA and 6.37 fielding independent with 2.4 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings allowed. Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has a 2.74 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 1.6 walks per nine innings, and both teams are relative equals with their bullpens since June 1, with the Blue Jays posting a 3.64 ERA, ranking eighth, while the Rays are ninth in this span with a 3.66 ERA.
Pick: Rays Run Line -1.5 +110 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -1.5 -105 and Total 8.3
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has been superb this season with a 2.47 ERA and 3.14 fielding independent with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore has a 5.07 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings while being supported by a bullpen that is 19th in ERA at 4.22.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -151
7:40 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Dustin May has pitched better than his 4.13 ERA would suggest, as his fielding independent is 3.30 with only 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, and he benefits from facing a Mariners lineup that entered the series 29th in runs per game at 3.9. Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has a 3.27 ERA with 1.2 home runs and two walks per nine innings allowed, but faces a Brewers lineup that is sixth in the league in scoring with 4.9 runs per game. The Brewers bullpen is also second in the National League in ERA at 3.48.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -144
8:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
While Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland has been improved recently with three earned runs allowed across his past three starts, he still owns a 6.27 ERA overall this season and has the task of keeping a Dodgers lineup at bay that leads the league in scoring on the road with over 5.5 runs per game. Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki has improved throughout the season, allowing seven total earned runs in his past five starts, but for the season is still posting a 4.46 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -128 and Over 11.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -152 and Total 12.2
