On Saturday, September 6th, Aryna Sabalenka and Amanda Anisimova will meet in the 2025 US Open final. Sabalenka, a three-time Grand Slam champion, is looking to win her first major of the year, and Anisimova is searching for the first of her career. So, there’s a lot on the line in this match, which genuinely feels like it can go either way. Sure, Sabalenka is the top-ranked player in the world, but Anisimova just beat her at Wimbledon. So, there’s a lot to dissect when looking into this matchup, and we’re going to do it in our Sabalenka vs. Anisimova betting preview.
I also post more tennis predictions on the VSiN picks page. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Friday, September 5th at 1:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -200, Anisimova +160
Spread: Sabalenka -3.5 Games (+100), Anisimova +3.5 Games (-135)
Total: Over 22.5 Games (-110), Under 22.5 Games (-125)
How To Watch Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Saturday, September 6th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova Predictions
Thursday morning, after my appearance on A Numbers Game, I added a play on Anisimova to win the tournament at +400. I had Anisimova to beat Naomi Osaka at +112, and I like the way the American matches up with Sabalenka. So, that felt like a good value, and I’m very happy to have a ticket like that heading into the final. Now, I won’t have to add anything on Anisimova to win. I’m sitting pretty and I hope others saw the VSiN picks page and followed along. However, if you didn’t, grabbing Anisimova to win a set, and adding a little sprinkle on the moneyline, is the move.
Overall, Sabalenka is better than Anisimova. There’s really no arguing otherwise. The Belarusian is the world No. 1 and has won three Grand Slam titles, and she has also been to the finals of the last six hard-court majors. She’s an absolute force. But Anisimova has enjoyed this matchup in the past. The American is 6-3 in nine career meetings with Sabalenka, and she beat her 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 when the two met at Wimbledon this year. Anisimova has now won two of her last three matches against Sabalenka. And she has also won at least a set in seven of the nine matches they have played.
There’s just a lot Anisimova can do to bother Sabalenka. For starters, the American is one of the few players in the world with the firepower to match the Belarusian from the back of the court. That’s not something Sabalenka is used to dealing with. And honestly, when Anisimova is running hot, she can be a little smoother with her ball-striking. Well, right now, Anisimova is running hot. Anisimova’s backhand is also going to be the best shot on the court in this match, and it might not even be close. That gives Anisimova something she can really control points with, and it also gives Sabalenka something to think about each point. Sometimes Anisimova’s opponents feel they need to avoid her backhand side completely.
Anisimova has also done well in this matchup when looking at serving and returning. The American isn’t always sturdy with the ball on her racquet, but the sense of urgency of finding the box against a dangerous returner like Sabalenka has helped Anisimova find success in this series. And when Anisimova is looking like a decent server, that’s when she’s very difficult to beat. And Anisimova hasn’t just been decent in Flushing, she has been arguably the best server in the tournament. And she’s already a great returner, which is another reason she has been able to get the better of Sabalenka.
The atmosphere should also help Anisimova a little. Sabalenka was able to defeat Pegula in the semifinals, but the crowd made that match a little closer than it should have been. Sabalenka played frustrated and Pegula played with a little more adrenaline. I think we’ll see more of that in yet another battle between Sabalenka and an American in New York.
Let’s just hope Anisimova has put all of the Wimbledon trauma behind her. If she comes out nervous about that happening again, she’s going to get demolished. But it definitely feels like she’s in a good place mentally right now, especially having defeated Iga Swiatek, the player that gave her that nightmare, in the quarterfinals.
Of course, it shouldn’t surprise anybody if Sabalenka does find a way to the winner’s circle. As previously mentioned, she’s the best player in the world, and she’s the defending champion here. She also might be due for a win considering she hasn’t won a major this year, and she’s much better than her 3-4 record in seven finals in 2025. But I just can’t get on board with Sabalenka being this big of a favorite against somebody that has stamped herself as an elite player in the women’s game. The head-to-head history only makes it harder.
Lean: Anisimova +1.5 Sets (-147)
