On Sunday, March 15, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina meet in the BNP Paribas Open finals in Indian Wells. This tournament, played in “Tennis Paradise,” is viewed as the unofficial fifth slam, so the stakes are going to be high when these two take the court. Having said that, keep reading for a little breakdown on how this one might play out.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Saturday, March 14 at 12:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -148, Rybakina +121
Spread: Sabalenka -1.5 Games (-125), Rybakina +1.5 Games (-115)
Total: Over 23.5 Games (-110), Under 23.5 Games (-130)
How To Watch Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
Where: Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California
When: Sunday, March 15
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Predictions
Whenever you get the world No. 1 as a short favorite, you can expect to see some heavy public action on that side. That’s exactly what our VSiN betting splits are showing, as 70% of the tickets at DraftKings Sportsbook have come in on Sabalenka. However, this is a series that has gone Rybakina’s way recently, so I’d strongly consider grabbing the plus-money odds.
I’m not going to add anything to Rybakina here, as I played her to win the tournament before her 7-5, 6-4 win over Elina Svitolina. That said, I essentially have Rybakina at +180 here. However, I genuinely believe +130 is a great price, and you can find that at several shops right now.
Sabalenka has an 8-7 edge over Rybakina when looking at the head-to-head history between these two, but the Russian-born Kazakhstani clearly knows what it takes to beat her. At the 2025 year-end finals, Rybakina earned a 6-3, 7-6 (0) win over Sabalenka to claim the WTA Finals in Saudi Arabia. Then, a few months later, Rybakina edged her out in the 2026 Australian Open final, winning 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.
It’s just pretty clear that Rybakina is way more trustworthy with the ball on her racquet. That’s backed up when looking at hold percentage over the last 52 weeks, as Rybakina is holding at an 83.9% clip and Sabalenka’s down at 78.8%. Rybakina should also be a little more dangerous as a returner than she usually is, as the conditions in Indian Wells slow things down significantly. That’s big for a player with her length. She should get her racquet on a lot of balls.
On top of the serve-return battle potentially being favorable to Rybakina, the baseline game is also interesting. Rybakina absolutely clobbers the ball, and she hits with great depth. That means that she can rush Sabalenka in a way that few others can.
Rybakina is also a little more sure of herself in finals. For as dominant as Sabalenka has been over the last couple of years, she has let a lot of tournaments get away with sloppy play in championship matches. Rybakina hasn’t had that problem. Her calm, quiet personality almost seems like a positive in high-pressure moments, whereas Sabalenka wears her emotions on her sleeve. That has made her prone to some on-court outbursts and significant dips in play.
It should also be noted that Rybakina beat Sabalenka in the Indian Wells final back in 2023. That ended in a 7-6 (11), 6-4 victory. Sure, that was a nail-biter that could have gone either way, but Rybakina’s going to have a slight mental edge knowing she has won this tournament before. Sabalenka has been to the finals here twice, but she has never won. That could add a little pressure.
LEAN: Rybakina ML (+130)
