We’re down to the final two at the 2026 Australian Open, as Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will battle for the title. Sabalenka is a two-time Australian Open champion, so she knows what it takes to win here. However, Rybakina, who hasn’t won a Slam since 2022, will be eager to get across the finish line — and did earn a win over Sabalenka at the WTA Finals a couple of months ago. This should be an awesome match to watch, which also means it should be a fun one to bet. Keep reading to find out how we’d suggest playing it in our Sabalenka vs. Rybakina betting preview.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
I’m already far too exposed on this championship match, as I have a future on Rybakina to win the tournament — along with a play on Sabalenka not to win. With that in mind, I won’t be adding anything here. In fact, if Rybakina goes up early, I’ll be looking for some ways to get involved with Sabalenka to try and mitigate some risk. However, I know a ton of people will be looking to play this one, as it’s a final between two of the best players in the world. Well, for those of you looking for action, I’d suggest backing the underdog.
Sabalenka has a good chance of winning this match. She has proven to be the best hard-court player in the world, and she has won in this very venue twice. That gives her a slight edge over Rybakina. However, the current odds suggest there’s a 59% chance Sabalenka wins this match. That feels a little high.
It’s just hard to rule Rybakina out when she’s the better server between these two. Over the last 52 weeks, Rybakina’s hold percentage (82.2%) is a little higher, and that doesn’t even do it justice. Rybakina’s Ace Rate of 10.5% is way higher than Sabalenka’s 6.7%, and that speaks to her advantage when it comes to hitting spots.
The serve advantage is big when considering Rybakina’s 40.7% break percentage in nine 2026 matches would be good for a career-best mark. She’s really seeing the ball well, which is impressive with her last three wins coming against Elise Mertens, Iga Swiatek, and Jessica Pegula.
Rybakina is also one of the few players in the world that can really frustrate Sabalenka with her baseline power. She’s not just a one-note servebot. She has power, precision, and above-average mobility from the back of the court.
I’m just not quite sure the heater we saw from Rybakina at the WTA Finals in Riyadh has actually ended. I know she lost a tight three-setter against Karolina Muchova in Brisbane, but it seems like she has played her way back into form. Rybakina has now won eight of her nine matches this season, and she hasn’t yet dropped a set in Melbourne. Again, that’s a remarkable feat considering her competition — and especially the win over Swiatek.
By the way, Sabalenka wasn’t spared on that dominant run in Saudi Arabia. These two clashed in the finals of that event, with Rybakina earning a 6-3, 7-6 (0) victory. I’m just not sure Rybakina hasn’t played well enough to earn a spot in the top tier in the women’s game, but it seems to be taking others a little longer to figure it out. Perhaps this will be the statement win that truly puts her in the conversation.
The sharps also appear to be backing Rybakina. Our VSiN betting splits show that most of the action at DraftKings Sportsbook has come in on Sabalenka, but the Belarusian is a smaller favorite than she was at open. That’s reverse line movement that makes Rybakina look like the player that respected bettors want.
LEAN: Rybakina ML (+142)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
