On Thursday, January 29, Aryna Sabalenka, a two-time Australian Open champion, will face Elina Svitolina for a spot in the finals in Melbourne. At VSiN, we’re doing in-depth breakdowns of all of the Grand Slam semifinal matches. With that in mind, keep reading for our predictions and analysis for Sabalenka vs. Svitolina at the 2026 Australian Open.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina
Sabalenka is a two-time champion in Melbourne, so we know she loves competing at this tournament. She has also looked great at the event thus far, as she’s into the semifinals without having dropped a set. However, Sabalenka hasn’t exactly had a tough draw. Her most impressive win of the tournament is a 6-1, 7-6 (1) victory over Victoria Mboko, who nearly stole the second set from her. That said, the Belarusian hasn’t seen anything quite like Svitolina — and especially this version of Svitolina.
Svitolina is the hottest player on the WTA Tour coming into this thing, as she’s 10-0 since the start of the 2026 season. Svitolina won the ASB Classic a couple of weeks ago, and her momentum carried right into the Australian Open. Svitolina has had a brutal draw Down Under, but she got through her matches against Diana Shnaider, Mirra Andreeva, and Coco Gauff without dropping a single set — and hasn’t dropped a set in her last seven matches.
While the sample size isn’t all that large, Svitolina’s 78.8% hold percentage in 2026 is the highest mark she has posted in her career. She’s really doing a nice job of hitting her spots, serving up aces, and putting away weak returns. That has made her a brutal opponent, as she’s already a good returner and relentless baseliner. Now, I feel pretty good about her holding her own against Sabalenka in the semifinals — and possibly even winning outright.
If Svitolina isn’t constantly fighting for her life in service games, she’s going to like her chances. The Ukrainian defends the baseline at a high level, so she’ll be able to absorb Sabalenka’s power and find her way into rallies. She’ll also put Sabalenka under a ton of pressure when the Belarusian is serving. Svitolina’s break percentage in 2026 is 48.5%, which surely isn’t sustainable. However, she was at 41.3% last year, so she’s still cemented as an elite returner.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being a match in which Svitolina has the crowd in her corner. Everybody loves an underdog, and Svitolina is undoubtedly the ‘dog here. Well, Sabalenka has gotten a lot better at handling her emotions in recent years, but she’s still prone to some rough stretches in matches. So, you shouldn’t be too surprised if Sabalenka gets a little frustrated at some point, leading to an abundance of unforced errors.
Of course, it should be noted that Sabalenka is 5-1 in this head-to-head series, and she has won four matches in a row against Svitolina. But it’s pretty clear that Svitolina has leveled up a bit, and I like that the Ukrainian is playing with house money. There’s zero pressure on her to win this match. All of the pressure is on Sabalenka’s shoulders.
Bet: Svitolina +1.5 Sets (-102 – 1.5 units) & Svitolina ML (+320 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
