On Thursday, September 4th, Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will clash in the semifinals of the 2025 US Open. This is a rematch of the 2024 US Open final, which ended with Sabalenka winning 7-5, 7-5 in a very competitive match. These two also met in the Miami Open final earlier this year, with Sabalenka winning 7-5, 6-2. Can Pegula overcome her Sabalenka problem? The Belarusian is 7-2 in this head-to-head series, and Pegula is going to need to figure it out if she’s going to give herself another shot at winning her first Grand Slam title. Let’s get into it with a Sabalenka vs. Pegula betting preview.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 3rd at 12:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -330, Pegula +240
Spread: Sabalenka -4.5 Games (-105), Pegula +4.5 Games (-130)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-120), Under 21.5 Games (-115)
How To Watch Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Thursday, September 4th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Predictions
It isn’t easy to make the case for Pegula to win a set in this match. Sabalenka has won three straight matches against Pegula, and all of them were straight-set victories. Also, Sabalenka’s four-match winning streak over Pegula that was snapped at 2023 WTA Finals featured four straight-set wins. So, Sabalenka has had Pegula’s number over the years, and the matches haven’t been particularly close.
The reasons I’m willing to overlook the history of this head-to-head series are recent form and the impact of the crowd. Pegula played some great tennis on her way to the finals last year, even beating Iga Swiatek and Karolina Muchova in the quarterfinals and semifinals. But a decent argument can be made that Pegula is playing even better here in 2025. Sure, Pegula hasn’t had to play any truly elite players. But she struggled through wins over Sofia Kenin and Muchova in 2024. This year, nobody has given her a match.
Pegula is serving well, she’s striking the ball cleanly from both wings and she has played some smart, aggressive tennis. She’s making quick decisions, letting it rip and hitting her spots. If she can keep that up, there’s no reason she can’t give Sabalenka a match, like she did in last year’s final.
Sabalenka has also taken care of her business this tournament. She hasn’t dropped a set on her way to reaching the semis, but she also hasn’t played anyone. Her quarter-final match against Marketa Vondrousova could have been her first real taste of competition, but the Czech had to pull out with an injury. Now, Sabalenka enters this match needing a significant jump in level, as she’s going to need to be her normal self in order to beat this opponent. Pegula’s draw didn’t feature many great players, but she at least faced Barbora Krejcikova in the quarters. That’s a match that required Pegula to execute at a high level, as Krejcikova has been playing well over the last few months — and she has a lot she can throw at opponents.
Not only is Pegula playing well and a little more battle-tested, but the crowd is going to be going absolutely insane in cheering her on. How will Sabalenka deal with that? The Belarusian has had success blocking out the noise in recent years, but it has been a little inconsistent. While she was able to do it in last year’s US Open final, she came unglued against Coco Gauff in the French Open final. Are we sure she won’t suffer a major mental lapse again? I’m not. So, if Pegula can stay solid and put a lot of balls in play, I can see Sabalenka beating herself and giving the American an opening.
Bet: Pegula +1.5 Sets (-111 – 1.5 units) & Pegula ML (+250 – 0.5 units)
