Turin sets the stage for the 2025 ATP Finals, where the world’s best clash for season-ending supremacy and bettors hunt for value in every match. Home favorite — and defending champion — Jannik Sinner headlines a loaded field that includes Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Lorenzo Musetti. Unfortunately, Novak Djokovic decided not to play after winning a title in Athens over the weekend.
The fast indoor conditions at this tournament amplify serves and aggression, meaning each matchup offers unique angles for side, total, and prop bettors looking to close the tennis year on a high note. Let’s get into some picks for Monday, November 10.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Taylor Fritz
Seven of Fritz’s last 11 matches have featured at least one tiebreaker. That’s a pretty significant number when talking about best-of-three events. Fritz can be a very good returner, thanks to his length, ability to chip, and strong overall instincts. However, when he’s going up against good servers, his matches tend to feature long, competitive sets. Well, Musetti has worked himself into a strong server, cutting down on unnecessary movements early in his service motion. That’s part of the reason Musetti made a strong push to get into the ATP Finals without Djokovic withdrawing. His game became a better fit for hard-court tennis.
With these conditions being extremely server-friendly, I just wouldn’t be surprised if at least one of these sets ends up being 7-5 or 7-6. That’s why -125 feels like a very reasonable price to pay for a tiebreaker.
These two have also played three non-clay matches against one another, and two of the three featured at least one ‘breaker. So, even before Musetti improved his serve, these two played matches in which the serve was a major weapon.
Bet: Over 0.5 Tiebreakers (-125)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
