The 2024 ATP Tour comes to an end with the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, Italy. Eight of the best players in the world are battling for the last big trophy — and paycheck — of the year, as Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev are all in this competition. That list does exclude Novak Djokovic, who is taking time off to heal up and get ready for the 2025 Australian Open. But this is still a loaded field. And we’re getting to the business end of it now, as group play is almost over. I’m going to continue to handicap the action daily, especially with the semifinals approaching. With that out of the way, keep reading for some best bets for Friday, November 15th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 844-828 (+37.98 units)
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev
If Zverev defeats Alcaraz, he’ll lock in the top spot in the John Newcombe Group. But Alcaraz also needs a win here. Several tiebreaker scenarios could come into play depending on the outcome of the following match between Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud. However, a win here gives Alcaraz a strong chance of making it to the semifinals — and a straight-set win would actually win him the group. But I can’t get on board with the idea of Alcaraz needing this win more than Zverev. If Zverev doesn’t win the group and ends up in the No. 2 spot, he’ll need to play Sinner in the semis. That’s as tough of a matchup as you can get in Turin.
The German is also riding a seven-match winning streak, having defeated some of the sport’s top names in recent weeks. His streak includes wins over Tallon Griekspoor, Arthur Fils, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune, Ugo Humbert, Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud. Zverev’s victory over Humbert sealed his title at the Rolex Paris Masters. Interesting enough, Humbert beat Alcaraz earlier in the tournament.
Alcaraz has struggled on indoor hard courts in his career. The lower bounces don’t do his versatile game any favors, and that’s why he’s faced challenges against big servers and powerful players indoors. It certainly rattled him against Humbert. Well, Zverev, known for his massive serve and quality baseline play, thrives on these surfaces. So, while Alcaraz has won their last two encounters, the faster conditions of this tournament should favor Zverev. They certainly did when these two met in last year’s ATP Finals, with Zverev beating him, 6-7 (3), 6-3, 6-4. And we saw the conditions come into play again when Zverev beat Alcaraz at the Australian Open, in January.
To his credit, Alcaraz has strengthened his serve this season. He wouldn’t have been able to win two majors without doing so. But it’s much more effortless for Zverev, who has a 2024 hard-court first-serve percentage of 70.3%. His serve has been an overwhelming weapon recently. That said, it’s tough to see Alcaraz generating many break point opportunities. Meanwhile, Zverev should get some looks at breaking the Alcaraz serve. He just has to cash them in.
It also helps Zverev that Alcaraz has been dealing with a cold all week. We saw him wearing a nasal strip against Rublev, and many blamed the illness for his loss to Ruud. Well, if he is anything less than 100%, he’s going to struggle with this red-hot version of Zverev. That’s why I think the German is worth a shot at plus-money odds.
Don’t look at this as a sweeping statement about the hierarchy on the ATP Tour. Alcaraz is better than Zverev. But this is a tough spot for the Spaniard, and the German should be able to take advantage.
Bet: Zverev ML (+114 – 1.5 units)
NOTE: I would play this down to +105.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
