On Saturday, November 16th, Taylor Fritz takes on Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud faces Jannik Sinner in the semifinals of the Nitto ATP Finals. These are the final four players in a field that also included Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev. And we’ll soon be down to two in the final ATP Tour event of the season, which pays out more to first place than any other tournament. That’s right, you make more for winning the year-end event than you do for winning the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon or US Open. On top of that, there’s the additional bragging rights and confidence that come with being the final champion of the year — in a field that features nothing but the very best. That said, the stakes are going to be high in these two matches, which means I have you covered with best bets for both of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 845-828 (+39.69 units)
Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Zverev
It’s a little wild that you can get Fritz to win one set at anything short of -175 odds. The American has won three consecutive matches against Zverev, and it’s not like those victories came in small tournaments. Fritz beat him at Wimbledon, the US Open and the Laver Cup. Sure, the last one isn’t all that meaningful. But Zverev was surely motivated by not losing a third in a row against Fritz, yet he still couldn’t get back in the win column. Perhaps that changes here. Honestly, it probably will. But have we seen anything that suggests he’s going to beat him in straights?
These are two of the best servers in the world, and they’re playing in extremely server-friendly conditions. Over the last 52 weeks, Zverev’s 89.8% hold percentage on hard courts is good for the third-best mark on tour. Meanwhile, Fritz is ninth in that same span at 87.8%. These are two guys that can really rack up easy holds, especially in quicker conditions. And these are some of the quickest conditions they have played all year. With that in mind, I’d just be a little surprised if we don’t see a few long, closely-contested sets in this match. And if that’s the case, you have to imagine Fritz will be able to grab one of them.
Fritz did look a little shaky in his win over De Minaur, as he was sloppy from the baseline and it nearly cost him a spot in the semifinals. But he was able to pull it together and do enough to win that match. Now he should head to the court with some confidence against this opponent, who he clearly has no problem finding motivation against. Meanwhile, you’d have to think that Zverev will be a little rattled by the recent head-to-head history between these two.
Overall, I’m expecting to see Sinner and Zverev in the final. That’s how I thought this would play out before the tournament started. But I generally like taking plays like this in meetings between two big servers. When two tall players with booming serves meet in server-friendly conditions, you get sets that are more like coin flips than anything else.
Bet: Fritz +1.5 Sets (-139)
Casper Ruud vs. Jannik Sinner
I like Sinner to win this match. He’s the best player in the world, he’s competing in his home country and he’s also the best indoor hard-court player alive. Sinner also happens to be 2-0 against Ruud in tour-level matches. Both matches were played on indoor hard courts, and both came over three years ago. That’s significant because Sinner really didn’t become Sinner until 2023. However, I just don’t think it’s fair to expect him to wipe the court with Ruud.
As I mentioned in the Fritz-Zverev writeup, this is a tournament that rewards good serving. And while Ruud is the worst server of the four semifinalists, he made 67.6% of his first serves in his win over Alcaraz, 80.4% of his first serves in his loss to Zverev and then another 75.0% of them in his win over Rublev. He’s hitting spots at an insane clip this week, which maybe shouldn’t have been surprising considering how well he has played at the ATP Finals in his career. Ruud loves this tournament.
Ruud also happens to be playing with absolutely nothing to lose here. Nobody expect him to make the semifinals, and nobody thinks he can beat Sinner. It’s a true “house money” situation. Meanwhile, Sinner could feel some pressure playing at home. That could mean that Ruud will come out firing and Sinner will come out a little tight.
I just don’t think it’s crazy to expect this match to be 7-5, 6-3, or something along those lines. We could also see a tiebreaker here, which would make it very easy on Ruud to cash this total. We just need to hope that the Ruud we have seen all week is the Ruud that shows up for this match.
Bet: Ruud Over 7.5 Games Won (-120)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
